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DBRS Warns Of Middle East Risks For Greek And Cypriot Banks’ Key Sector

Rising Geopolitical Risks And Economic Vulnerabilities

DBRS said rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase risks for Greece and Cyprus, citing their exposure to shipping and tourism. The assessment highlights sector dependence as a key vulnerability in both economies.

Impact On Economic Activity And Banking Systems

Despite recent resilience in Cyprus, ongoing volatility is affecting economic activity and the banking sector. The report, titled “Middle East Tensions Heighten Risks for Greek and Cypriot Banks’ Shipping and Tourism Exposures,” compares risks across both countries and identifies areas of exposure.

Tourism And Shipping: The Economic Double-Edged Sword

Tourism and shipping account for a larger share of economic activity in Cyprus and Greece than in most EU countries. In Cyprus, these sectors represent 6.6% of gross value added, compared with 7.3% in Greece and an EU average of 2.9%. Beyond direct activity, tourism supports transport and leisure services, influencing consumption and broader economic output. According to DBRS, banks in both countries have above-average exposure to these sectors, increasing credit risk in the event of a prolonged downturn.

Differentiated Exposure: Cyprus Versus Greece

Exposure differs between the two banking systems. Greek banks hold a larger share of internationally secured shipping loans, while Cypriot banks have greater exposure to tourism-related activity. This makes Cyprus more sensitive to changes in travel demand. Both systems maintain profitability and capital buffers that may support performance under pressure.

Economic Ripple Effects And Sectoral Vulnerabilities

A decline in tourism flows would affect small and medium-sized businesses, household income, and real estate values. These factors are linked to asset quality in Cypriot banks. Early indicators point to higher cancellation rates and weaker travel demand in Cyprus, reflecting its proximity to regional tensions. Greece may see a more limited short-term impact due to lower exposure and potential diversion of tourism demand from affected regions.

Maintaining Profitability In A Challenging Environment

Bank profitability in both countries remained above the EU average as of the fourth quarter of 2025. Capital levels in Cypriot banks remain strong, while Greek banks continue to align with broader European benchmarks. Asset quality has improved, with non-performing loan ratios in transportation and storage close to 0% in 2025, compared with an EU average of 2.3%. In lodging and food services, non-performing loans stood at 2.1% in Greece and 0.7% in Cyprus, both below the EU average of 5%.

Sectoral Exposure And Wider Banking Implications

Data from the European Banking Authority show that transportation and storage accounted for 19.8% of loans to non-financial corporations in Greece and 11.2% in Cyprus in 2025, compared with an EU average of 5.5%. Exposure to lodging and food services reached 11.1% in Greece and 21.2% in Cyprus, exceeding the EU average of 2.6%.

Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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