In a recent report, DBRS Morningstar, a prominent global credit rating agency, has adjusted its growth projections for Cyprus, forecasting a 2.7% growth rate in 2024 and a slightly lower 2.5% for 2025. This revision underscores the nuanced economic trajectory of Cyprus, which balances optimism with caution amid global economic headwinds.

The revised growth figures indicate a tempered but steady expansion for the Cypriot economy. DBRS Morningstar’s adjustments reflect both external and internal factors influencing the nation’s economic landscape. On one hand, global economic uncertainties, including fluctuating energy prices and geopolitical tensions, present significant challenges. On the other hand, Cyprus’s robust recovery post-pandemic and strategic economic reforms contribute positively to its growth outlook.

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One of the critical drivers of Cyprus’s economic growth is its thriving tourism sector, which has recently seen a substantial increase in tourist arrivals. As reported by Cyprus Business News, the island welcomed 3.85 million tourists in 2023, a 20.1% increase compared to the previous year. This surge has injected much-needed revenue into the economy, supporting various ancillary industries such as hospitality, retail, and transportation.

Additionally, Cyprus has been focusing on diversifying its economic base. Efforts to bolster sectors like information technology, financial services, and renewable energy are beginning to pay dividends. The government’s strategic initiatives aimed at attracting foreign investment and fostering innovation have created a more resilient economic framework capable of withstanding global shocks.

However, DBRS Morningstar’s cautious outlook highlights some persisting vulnerabilities. The Cypriot economy remains susceptible to external shocks due to its small size and high degree of openness. The dependency on tourism, while beneficial, also poses risks, particularly in the face of global travel disruptions or economic downturns in key source markets. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region add a layer of uncertainty that could impact investor confidence and economic stability.

Inflationary pressures also play a role in the revised projections. Rising costs, particularly in energy and food, have a direct impact on both consumers and businesses. The Central Bank of Cyprus has been vigilant in monitoring inflation and implementing policies to mitigate its adverse effects, but the challenge remains significant.

In response to these projections, the Cypriot government has reiterated its commitment to fiscal discipline and structural reforms. The National Reform Programme and the Cyprus Recovery and Resilience Plan are central to these efforts, aiming to enhance competitiveness, digitalisation, and sustainability across various sectors of the economy.