DBRS Morningstar Elevates Cyprus’s Credit Rating, Bolstering Economic Confidence

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

September 22, 2025

Robust Fiscal Recovery Propels Cyprus’s Rating Upgrade

The internationally respected ratings firm DBRS Morningstar has raised Cyprus’s sovereign credit rating from ‘A(Low)’ to ‘A’, while adjusting its outlook from ‘positive’ to ‘stable’. The upgrade reflects the island’s rapid public debt reduction and strong economic indicators, with expectations that further improvements will continue in the coming years.

Fiscal Discipline and Debt Reduction

Recent fiscal data reveals a significant decline in the general government debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), dropping from 96.5% in December 2021 to 64.3% by March 2025. This reduction is attributed to substantial fiscal surpluses and robust nominal GDP growth driven by strong domestic demand and expanding service exports. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that the debt-to-GDP ratio will maintain its downward trajectory as the government continues to deliver large surpluses and favorable economic conditions prevail.

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Structural Reforms and Revenue Growth

Beyond cyclic factors, structural improvements have bolstered Cyprus’s fiscal performance. An uptick in income tax revenues, largely due to the relocation of numerous companies to Cyprus, has significantly enhanced government income. The government’s Annual Progress Report outlines projected fiscal surpluses of 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3.7% for the period 2026-2028, with forecasts suggesting that government debt will drop to 43.3% of GDP by 2028.

Stable Political Environment and Strategic Governance

The stable political backdrop and resilient domestic banking sector underscore Cyprus’s robust economic framework. The country’s prudent fiscal and economic policies, combined with moderate interest burdens, have consistently received favorable evaluations by international rating agencies. While challenges remain—such as the limited size of an economy centered on services, relatively low labor productivity, and a significant current account deficit—the integration into the European Union continues to strengthen institutional quality and governance standards.

Enhanced Investor Confidence and Future Prospects

Cyprus’s recent rating upgrade has galvanized investor confidence by positioning the nation well within the high-investment grade spectrum. Finance Minister Makis Keravnos emphasized that the latest upgrade from DBRS Morningstar is a clear testament to Cyprus’s rational economic policies and fiscal discipline. He noted that this marks the second upgrade for the country in 2025, underscoring a sustained commitment to favorable economic policies that not only promote growth but also secure fiscal stability in the face of global uncertainties.

Outlook: Securing Growth and Attracting Investment

Looking ahead, the government remains committed to maintaining stringent financial policies while implementing a social strategy to support vulnerable groups and the small and medium-sized sector. With the momentum of continuous fiscal enhancements and a favorable policy environment, Cyprus is well-positioned to attract foreign investments, enhance competitiveness, and generate new employment opportunities.

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Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 26, 2026

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

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Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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