Greek banks face a competitive disadvantage in terms of revenue generation, with a less diversified structure compared to their European counterparts. DBRS Morningstar reports that net supplies revenue in Greek banks represents only 17% of total operating revenue in 2024, compared to 22% in Europe. This lag is largely due to the global financial crisis and the Greek debt crisis, which significantly reduced household savings.
Despite these challenges, Greece’s economy has outperformed the Eurozone, and this trend is expected to continue. Strong private consumption, exports, and investment contributed to a 2.3% growth in 2023, with GDP projected to grow by more than 2% in 2024. The labor market has also improved, with unemployment at 9.6% in November 2024, down from a peak of 27.8% in 2013.
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Greek banks have benefited from higher interest rates, particularly due to a large portion of their loans being at floating rates. However, as net interest income (NII) faces pressure from expected rate reductions, Greek banks need to diversify their revenue streams further. The government’s plan to reduce banking supplies for retail customers by 2025, which includes cuts to ATM and money transfer services, could slow the pace of growth in net supplies revenue.
In response, Greek banks are focusing on improving revenue from supplies, both organically and through external partnerships and acquisitions. Net supplies increased to 17% of total operating revenue in 2024, up from 15% in 2019. These efforts, combined with the ongoing economic recovery, should help narrow the revenue gap with European banks.
Despite challenges like NII compression, higher operational costs, and potential credit risk increases, DBRS expects Greek banks to maintain adequate profitability. Continued economic growth, especially through EU funding and structural reforms, will support this outlook. However, geopolitical risks, such as trade barriers, could impact future growth prospects.
Looking ahead, DBRS believes that the ongoing strategic initiatives by Greek banks and the country’s robust economic performance will help mitigate the impacts of lower interest rates, allowing for continued growth in private savings and investments.
