DBRS: Greek Banks Face Revenue Challenges But Strong Economic Outlook

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 3, 2025

Greek banks face a competitive disadvantage in terms of revenue generation, with a less diversified structure compared to their European counterparts. DBRS Morningstar reports that net supplies revenue in Greek banks represents only 17% of total operating revenue in 2024, compared to 22% in Europe. This lag is largely due to the global financial crisis and the Greek debt crisis, which significantly reduced household savings.

Despite these challenges, Greece’s economy has outperformed the Eurozone, and this trend is expected to continue. Strong private consumption, exports, and investment contributed to a 2.3% growth in 2023, with GDP projected to grow by more than 2% in 2024. The labor market has also improved, with unemployment at 9.6% in November 2024, down from a peak of 27.8% in 2013.

Follow THE FUTURE on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and Telegram

Greek banks have benefited from higher interest rates, particularly due to a large portion of their loans being at floating rates. However, as net interest income (NII) faces pressure from expected rate reductions, Greek banks need to diversify their revenue streams further. The government’s plan to reduce banking supplies for retail customers by 2025, which includes cuts to ATM and money transfer services, could slow the pace of growth in net supplies revenue.

In response, Greek banks are focusing on improving revenue from supplies, both organically and through external partnerships and acquisitions. Net supplies increased to 17% of total operating revenue in 2024, up from 15% in 2019. These efforts, combined with the ongoing economic recovery, should help narrow the revenue gap with European banks.

Despite challenges like NII compression, higher operational costs, and potential credit risk increases, DBRS expects Greek banks to maintain adequate profitability. Continued economic growth, especially through EU funding and structural reforms, will support this outlook. However, geopolitical risks, such as trade barriers, could impact future growth prospects.

Looking ahead, DBRS believes that the ongoing strategic initiatives by Greek banks and the country’s robust economic performance will help mitigate the impacts of lower interest rates, allowing for continued growth in private savings and investments.

The Future Forbes Realty Global Properties

ECB Launches Geopolitical Stress Tests For 110 Eurozone Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 9, 2026

The European Central Bank is preparing a new round of geopolitical stress tests aimed at assessing potential risks to major financial institutions across the euro area. Up to 110 systemic banks, including institutions in Greece and the Bank of Cyprus, will take part in the exercise, which examines how geopolitical events could affect financial stability.

Timeline And Testing Process

Banks are expected to submit initial data on March 16, 2026. Supervisors will review the information in April, while the final results are scheduled to be published in July 2026. The process forms part of the ECB’s broader supervisory work to evaluate financial system resilience under different risk scenarios.

Follow THE FUTURE on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and Telegram

Geopolitical Shock As The Primary Concern

The stress tests place particular emphasis on geopolitical risks. These may include armed conflicts, economic sanctions, cyberattacks and energy supply disruptions. Such events can affect banks through changes in market conditions, borrower solvency and sector exposure. Lending portfolios linked to regions or industries affected by geopolitical developments may face higher risk levels.

Reverse Stress Testing: A Tailored Approach

Unlike traditional stress tests that apply the same scenario to all institutions, the reverse stress test requires each bank to define a scenario that could significantly affect its capital position. Banks must identify a geopolitical shock that could reduce their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio by at least 300 basis points. Institutions are also expected to assess potential effects on liquidity, funding conditions and broader economic indicators such as GDP and unemployment.

Customized Risk Assessments And Supervisor Collaboration

This methodology allows banks to submit risk assessments based on their own exposures and operational structures. The approach is intended to help supervisors understand how geopolitical events could affect institutions differently and to support discussions between banks and regulators on risk management and contingency planning.

Differentiated Vulnerabilities Across Countries

A joint report by the ECB and the European Systemic Risk Board indicates that countries respond differently to geopolitical shocks. The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to higher energy prices and inflation across Europe, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Greece and Austria experienced increases in borrowing costs and lower investor confidence. Germany, France and Portugal recorded more moderate changes, while Spain, Malta, Latvia and Finland showed intermediate levels of exposure.

Conclusion

The geopolitical stress tests will not immediately lead to additional capital requirements for banks. Their results will feed into the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP). ECB supervisors may use the findings when assessing capital adequacy, risk management practices and operational resilience at individual institutions.

Breaking news