Cyprus Unemployment Trends Reflect Seasonal Shifts And Economic Implications

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

December 5, 2025

Seasonal Impact On Unemployment Figures

Recent data released by the Statistical Service highlights a notable, though not unwarranted, increase in unemployment in Cyprus for November. According to the report, the number of registered job seekers at Regional Employment Offices rose to 10,924 in November from 7,099 in October. Seasonally adjusted figures reveal a modest increase of 3.6%, with numbers moving from 9,723 in October to 10,078 in November. This uptick is attributed primarily to the natural end of the tourism season.

Sectoral Variations On Labor Market Trends

The report provides further insights by breaking down unemployment figures across various sectors. Significant declines were observed in industries such as construction, manufacturing, retail, and financial services. For example, in the construction sector, jobless figures decreased to 411 from 541 in the previous year, and manufacturing recorded a similar annual decline. Conversely, the accommodation and catering sectors experienced a dramatic surge, with unemployed figures spiking to 3,642 in November from just 852 in October, as the tourism season concluded. Meanwhile, in wholesale and retail trade, while there was an increase compared to October, the numbers remain lower than the figures recorded in November last.

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Economic Benefits Of Extending The Tourism Season

Industry experts have noted that extending the tourism season could yield substantial economic benefits. A prolonged period of operation for hotels and other tourist accommodations would boost revenue flows and reduce the state’s expenditure on unemployment benefits. The logic is straightforward: sustained tourism activity not only generates additional tax income but also alleviates fiscal pressures by lowering unemployment support outlays. This dual advantage highlights the pressing need for strategic policy adjustments in the tourism sector.

Positive Trends In Tourism Revenues And Arrivals

The outlook for the tourism sector remains upbeat. Recent findings indicate that tourism revenues for September approached those of peak months like July and August, with income reaching €499.9 million—a 10.1% increase over the previous year. For the January to September period, revenues climbed to €2.9 billion from €2.5 billion, marking a 15.4% year-over-year rise. Tourist arrivals also showed robust growth, with September recording 570,635 visitors, a 12.0% increase, and October following suit with a 17.1% increase compared to last year.

Looking Ahead

As the labor market continues to adjust with the seasonal dynamics inherent to Cyprus’ economy, policymakers and industry leaders are watching these trends closely. With the tourism sector playing a pivotal role in buoying overall economic performance, initiatives aimed at extending the tourism season could catalyze further improvements in both revenue generation and employment levels. Strategic planning in this area holds promise for strengthening public finances and supporting sustainable economic growth.

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Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 26, 2026

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

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Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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