Cyprus Retail Trade Expands in November 2025 Amid Robust Consumer Demand

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 6, 2026

Robust Trading Indices Reflect Strong Consumer Confidence

Cyprus experienced a marked expansion in its retail sector in November 2025, buoyed by resilient consumer demand across multiple categories. According to the Statistical Service, the Turnover Value Index for retail trade—excluding motor vehicles—climbed by 4.6% compared with November 2024, while the Turnover Volume Index surged by 7.6%.

Strong Growth Across Key Categories

When using 2021 as the base year, the aggregated value index reached 145.4, and the volume index attained 132.1. Over the January–November period, the sector recorded cumulative growth of 6.2% in value and 7.8% in volume compared to the same period in the previous year. In particular, specialised stores for food, beverages, and tobacco showed an impressive annual performance, with indices rising 17.4% for value and 22.5% for volume. Supermarkets also demonstrated steady progress, with a 5.3% increase in value and an 8% rise in volume.

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Notable Advances in Apparel and Technology

Other segments, including clothing and footwear, posted solid gains—with value up by 4.8% and volume expanding 14.1%—while information and communication equipment saw a notable growth of 6.0% in value and 15.2% in volume. Moderately expanding sectors included household equipment and construction materials, which recorded growth of 4.3% in value and 6.2% in volume.

Sectoral Challenges and Declines

Certain segments, however, faced downward pressure. Cultural and recreation goods declined slightly, with a 1.3% drop in value accompanied by a 1.5% slip in volume. Similarly, retail sales not in stores, including online and mail-order trade, contracted sharply by 13.7% in value and 12% in volume—although they remained positive on a year-to-date basis. Automotive fuel sales also saw a reduction, with value decreasing by 5.8% and volume by 3.6%.

Aggregate Analysis and Methodological Insights

Broader aggregates excluding automotive fuel reveal that retail trade increased by 5.6% in value and 8.7% in volume. Edible goods recorded rises of 7.1% in value and 10.1% in volume, while non-edible goods grew 4.0% in value and 7.5% in volume. Cystat clarified that the Turnover Value Index is calculated at current prices, whereas the Turnover Volume Index is derived at constant prices using the Consumer Price Index as a deflator.

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ECB Launches Geopolitical Stress Tests For 110 Eurozone Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 9, 2026

The European Central Bank is preparing a new round of geopolitical stress tests aimed at assessing potential risks to major financial institutions across the euro area. Up to 110 systemic banks, including institutions in Greece and the Bank of Cyprus, will take part in the exercise, which examines how geopolitical events could affect financial stability.

Timeline And Testing Process

Banks are expected to submit initial data on March 16, 2026. Supervisors will review the information in April, while the final results are scheduled to be published in July 2026. The process forms part of the ECB’s broader supervisory work to evaluate financial system resilience under different risk scenarios.

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Geopolitical Shock As The Primary Concern

The stress tests place particular emphasis on geopolitical risks. These may include armed conflicts, economic sanctions, cyberattacks and energy supply disruptions. Such events can affect banks through changes in market conditions, borrower solvency and sector exposure. Lending portfolios linked to regions or industries affected by geopolitical developments may face higher risk levels.

Reverse Stress Testing: A Tailored Approach

Unlike traditional stress tests that apply the same scenario to all institutions, the reverse stress test requires each bank to define a scenario that could significantly affect its capital position. Banks must identify a geopolitical shock that could reduce their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio by at least 300 basis points. Institutions are also expected to assess potential effects on liquidity, funding conditions and broader economic indicators such as GDP and unemployment.

Customized Risk Assessments And Supervisor Collaboration

This methodology allows banks to submit risk assessments based on their own exposures and operational structures. The approach is intended to help supervisors understand how geopolitical events could affect institutions differently and to support discussions between banks and regulators on risk management and contingency planning.

Differentiated Vulnerabilities Across Countries

A joint report by the ECB and the European Systemic Risk Board indicates that countries respond differently to geopolitical shocks. The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to higher energy prices and inflation across Europe, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Greece and Austria experienced increases in borrowing costs and lower investor confidence. Germany, France and Portugal recorded more moderate changes, while Spain, Malta, Latvia and Finland showed intermediate levels of exposure.

Conclusion

The geopolitical stress tests will not immediately lead to additional capital requirements for banks. Their results will feed into the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP). ECB supervisors may use the findings when assessing capital adequacy, risk management practices and operational resilience at individual institutions.

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