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Cyprus Retail Trade Declines In January While EU Retail Activity Shows Slight Growth

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 8, 2026

Overview

Data from Eurostat show that Cyprus recorded a 0.8% decline in retail trade volume in January 2026, while the European Union registered a slight increase. Retail trade across the EU rose by 0.1% compared with December 2025.

Monthly Performance: Cyprus Versus The EU

In January 2026, the euro area recorded a seasonally adjusted decline of 0.1% in retail trade volume, while the EU posted a 0.1% increase. Cyprus moved in the opposite direction, with retail activity falling after small increases recorded in previous months. Retail trade had increased by 0.1% in December 2025 following a 0.9% rise in November.

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Sector-Specific Insights

Sector data for the euro area show mixed developments across retail categories. Sales of food, drinks and tobacco increased by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Non-food products excluding automotive fuel declined by 0.2%, while automotive fuel sold in specialised stores fell by 1.1%. Across the EU, sales of food, drinks and tobacco increased by 0.4%. Non-food products declined by 0.1%, while automotive fuel sales decreased by 1.0%.

Annual Growth And National Variations

On an annual basis, the calendar-adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 2.3% across the EU. Several countries recorded stronger monthly increases, including Estonia with a 4.4% rise, Latvia with 2.8%, and Portugal with 2.0%. Other member states reported declines during the same period, including Slovakia, Slovenia, and Croatia. Luxembourg recorded a 24.7% annual increase in retail sales. Lithuania and Estonia also reported higher annual growth rates.

Market Implications

The latest data illustrate differences in retail performance across EU member states and sectors. Variations between national markets and product categories continue to influence consumer spending patterns across the region.

For businesses and policymakers, these figures provide additional context for assessing developments in retail activity, particularly in markets where growth remains uneven. The contrast between Cyprus and the broader EU also highlights how national trends can diverge from wider regional patterns.

Eurostat’s data provide further insight into how retail sectors across the EU are evolving as companies adjust to changing consumer demand and economic conditions.

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Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 26, 2026

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

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Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.