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Cyprus Real Estate Market Slows in August

The Cypriot real estate market showed signs of cooling in August 2024, marking a decline in activity after a period of sustained growth. Data reveals a notable slowdown in transactions, with the overall market experiencing a dip in sales and property transfers compared to previous months. This deceleration comes after a strong first half of the year, which saw robust demand in key regions, especially for high-value properties and new developments.

While the market experienced this summer lull, experts remain cautiously optimistic, noting that this trend aligns with historical patterns, as August is traditionally a quieter month for real estate due to seasonal factors. However, the slowdown also reflects broader economic challenges, including rising interest rates and inflationary pressures, which have begun to affect buyer sentiment and investment decisions.

Market Trends: The Eight-Month Snapshot

Despite the August slowdown, the real estate market over the first eight months of 2024 has largely been positive. Property sales and transfers increased during the initial part of the year, driven by both domestic and foreign investment. Demand for residential properties remained high, with luxury properties and developments in prime locations—such as Limassol, Paphos, and Nicosia—leading the way.

Data from the Department of Lands and Surveys highlights that, while August saw a reduction in transaction volumes, the overall market remained relatively resilient. The first eight months of the year saw a notable rise in the value of properties sold, suggesting that the high-end property segment continued to perform well. Additionally, certain regions, particularly Limassol and Paphos, managed to retain significant market momentum even during the quieter summer months.

Limassol, a hub for foreign investment and a hotspot for luxury developments, has consistently been one of the strongest-performing regions, attracting both individual buyers and investors seeking rental properties or high-end real estate. Paphos, known for its appeal to foreign retirees and holiday home buyers, also maintained steady demand, particularly from non-EU buyers taking advantage of Cyprus’ attractive property offerings and lifestyle benefits.

Regional Interpretation

While the overall market has slowed, certain regions continue to show resilience. Limassol and Paphos, in particular, remain key players in the market, with these areas seeing the highest levels of foreign interest. Limassol’s status as a business and investment hub, coupled with its array of luxury properties, continues to attract international buyers, particularly from the Middle East, Russia, and Europe.

Paphos also continues to hold strong appeal for foreign buyers, especially retirees and those looking for holiday homes. The district’s affordability compared to Limassol, combined with its high quality of life, makes it a popular choice for non-EU investors, who have been a consistent driver of demand in the region.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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