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Cyprus Real Estate Market Slows in August

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

September 23, 2024

The Cypriot real estate market showed signs of cooling in August 2024, marking a decline in activity after a period of sustained growth. Data reveals a notable slowdown in transactions, with the overall market experiencing a dip in sales and property transfers compared to previous months. This deceleration comes after a strong first half of the year, which saw robust demand in key regions, especially for high-value properties and new developments.

While the market experienced this summer lull, experts remain cautiously optimistic, noting that this trend aligns with historical patterns, as August is traditionally a quieter month for real estate due to seasonal factors. However, the slowdown also reflects broader economic challenges, including rising interest rates and inflationary pressures, which have begun to affect buyer sentiment and investment decisions.

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Market Trends: The Eight-Month Snapshot

Despite the August slowdown, the real estate market over the first eight months of 2024 has largely been positive. Property sales and transfers increased during the initial part of the year, driven by both domestic and foreign investment. Demand for residential properties remained high, with luxury properties and developments in prime locations—such as Limassol, Paphos, and Nicosia—leading the way.

Data from the Department of Lands and Surveys highlights that, while August saw a reduction in transaction volumes, the overall market remained relatively resilient. The first eight months of the year saw a notable rise in the value of properties sold, suggesting that the high-end property segment continued to perform well. Additionally, certain regions, particularly Limassol and Paphos, managed to retain significant market momentum even during the quieter summer months.

Limassol, a hub for foreign investment and a hotspot for luxury developments, has consistently been one of the strongest-performing regions, attracting both individual buyers and investors seeking rental properties or high-end real estate. Paphos, known for its appeal to foreign retirees and holiday home buyers, also maintained steady demand, particularly from non-EU buyers taking advantage of Cyprus’ attractive property offerings and lifestyle benefits.

Regional Interpretation

While the overall market has slowed, certain regions continue to show resilience. Limassol and Paphos, in particular, remain key players in the market, with these areas seeing the highest levels of foreign interest. Limassol’s status as a business and investment hub, coupled with its array of luxury properties, continues to attract international buyers, particularly from the Middle East, Russia, and Europe.

Paphos also continues to hold strong appeal for foreign buyers, especially retirees and those looking for holiday homes. The district’s affordability compared to Limassol, combined with its high quality of life, makes it a popular choice for non-EU investors, who have been a consistent driver of demand in the region.

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Citigroup Raises Eurobank Target Price Following Strong Q1 Results

Revised Target Price Reflects Strengthened Outlook

Citigroup raised its target price for Eurobank to €5.00 from €4.70 while maintaining a buy recommendation following the bank’s first-quarter results and upgraded medium-term profitability outlook. Based on Eurobank’s reference share price of €3.72 on May 15, 2026, Citigroup’s revised target implies upside potential of 34.4%, rising to 38.5% when the estimated dividend yield of 4.1% is included.

Enhanced Earnings And Comprehensive Forecasts

The upgraded analysis from Citigroup, as reported by Newmoney, points to bolstered momentum in net interest income and fee generation. The investment bank has revised its normalized earnings per share forecasts upward: 4% for 2026, 9% for 2027, and 14% for 2028, primarily driven by higher expected net interest income and increased commissions.

Scenario Analysis Offers Range Of Outcomes

Citigroup’s bullish scenario values Eurobank shares at €6.10, implying potential upside of 64%. Its downside scenario projects a share price of €3.55, approximately 4.6% below the May 15 reference level. The optimistic case assumes a return on tangible equity one percentage point higher, alongside a 100 basis point reduction in the cost of equity. Meanwhile, the negative scenario assumes a 1.5 percentage point lower return combined with a 200 basis point increase in the cost of equity.

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Solid Q1 Results Support Growth Targets

Eurobank reported normalized net profits of €351 million during the first quarter, broadly in line with market expectations. Reported net profit reached €331 million after a €35 million expense linked to a voluntary exit programme involving around 200 employees. The programme is expected to generate annual savings of approximately €14 million. Net interest income increased 3% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding consensus forecasts by 2% and supporting expectations that the bank could surpass its €2.6 billion target for 2026.

Looking Ahead: Ambitious Growth And Profitable Outlook

Organic loan growth reached €1.1 billion during the quarter, supporting management’s target for €3.8 billion in annual organic credit expansion. Fee income also rose 20% year-on-year, outperforming forecasts by 4%. Citigroup projects Eurobank’s net profit will reach €1.45 billion in 2026, with earnings per share of €0.40 and a dividend of €0.20 per share.

By 2028, the bank forecasts net profit of €1.76 billion alongside further improvement in profitability metrics and dividend yield. The revised projections reinforce expectations that Eurobank will continue benefiting from stronger lending activity, resilient fee income and improving operational efficiency.