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Cyprus projects €1.13 billion fiscal surplus in 2025 budget

Cyprus is set to deliver a fiscal surplus of €1.13 billion in 2025, equivalent to 3.3% of GDP, according to the state budget presented to the House of Representatives on Thursday. The budget outlines an overall increase in revenues of 6.2% in 2025, with a slight 1.2% reduction in expenditures compared to 2024.

Total state expenditure for 2025 is projected at €12.93 billion, encompassing debt repayments, interest, and investments. The breakdown includes €3.53 billion for the Fixed Fund, €7.85 billion in regular expenditures, and €1.55 billion for development expenses. This represents a slight decrease from the €13.1 billion allocated in 2024.

In terms of revenues (excluding financial flows), the government forecasts a 6.2% increase, bringing the total to €10.31 billion in 2025, compared to €9.71 billion in 2024. The main sources of revenue will come from direct and indirect taxation, estimated at €8.48 billion—or 82% of total revenues. The remaining 18% will be generated from non-tax income, including the sale of goods and services, rental income, and transfers.

Direct tax revenues are projected to rise by 4.9% to €3.92 billion, while indirect taxes are expected to increase by 5.6%, totalling €4.56 billion. Non-tax revenues are forecast to see a significant 10.3% increase, reaching €1.83 billion.

While there is a slight 1% decrease in personnel-related expenditures, totalling €3.62 billion in 2025, operational expenditures are expected to surge by 21.4%, reaching €1.42 billion. This is attributed to increases in reserve funds, defence, policing, and consulting services.

Transfer payments—including social benefits, grants to public and private organizations, and contributions to the EU budget—are expected to grow by 5.3%, reaching €3.99 billion. The largest increases in 2025 will be in contributions to the General Healthcare System (GeSY) and social security funds.

Capital expenditures, which cover co-financed projects, land and equipment purchases, and building renovations, are projected to rise by 4% in 2025 to €1.14 billion. Meanwhile, debt service expenditures are expected to fall by 18.6%, dropping to €2.75 billion in 2025 from €3.38 billion in 2024.

Steady growth until 2027

Looking at key economic indicators, the Cypriot economy is expected to grow steadily through 2027. GDP for 2025 is projected at €33.86 billion, with an annual growth rate of 3.1%. By 2027, GDP is forecast to reach €37.54 billion, with growth rates of 3.2% and 3.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Unemployment is set to decline from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.5% by 2027, while inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.0% annually from 2025 to 2027. The fiscal surplus is forecast to remain strong, at 3.3% of GDP in 2025, declining slightly to 3.1% by 2027.

The primary surplus is expected to reach 4.8% of GDP in 2025 and stabilize at 4.4% by 2027. Meanwhile, public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to decline from 69.3% in 2024 to 64.2% in 2025 and 53.5% by 2027. Capital expenditures are expected to peak at €1.39 billion (or 4.1% of GDP) in 2025, before dropping to 3.1% of GDP by 2027.

Middle East Tensions Cast Uncertainty Over Cyprus Tourism Sector

Cyprus’ tourism sector is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as regional tensions in the Middle East begin to affect travel sentiment. Although the country is not directly involved in the conflict, industry stakeholders report growing caution among travelers, tour operators and hospitality businesses.

Heightened Concern Across The Sector

Tourism officials and industry representatives are closely monitoring developments. While maintaining a measured public stance, they remain in contact with international partners and travel operators to assess potential changes in travel programs. Despite the uncertainty, many industry figures believe that once tensions ease, targeted marketing campaigns and competitive pricing could help restore Cyprus’ position as a preferred Mediterranean destination.

Operational Adaptations And Labour Considerations

According to reports by Philenews, hotel operators recently met with representatives of the Deputy Ministry of Tourism to discuss the operational challenges emerging from the situation. Labour issues were a central focus of the discussions. Many hotel businesses had originally planned to reopen in March to align with travel agents’ seasonal programs and extend the tourism season. Other establishments had scheduled openings in early April to capitalize on the Easter holiday period for both Catholic and Orthodox travelers.

Revised Timelines Amid Uncertainty

These plans are now being reassessed. Some hotel operators have proposed extending the full suspension of staff employment for up to two additional months, potentially until the end of April, while awaiting clearer developments in the region.

Such a decision would prolong the current period of unemployment for many tourism workers, highlighting the economic impact the crisis could have on the sector. An alternative proposal involves partial reopening, allowing hotels to operate with only essential personnel based on confirmed bookings. Industry representatives also discussed the possibility of requesting financial assistance from the European Union to offset potential losses.

Mixed Signals For The Summer Season

Despite the uncertainty, travel agents have so far maintained their scheduled flight programs to Cyprus for the summer period, including charter flights between May and October. This suggests that confidence in the destination remains relatively stable among some market segments.

At the same time, hotel operators report cancellations not only for the March–April period but also for certain summer bookings, while demand for new reservations has slowed. Industry stakeholders nevertheless remain hopeful that an easing of regional tensions would quickly restore traveler confidence.

Air Connectivity Gradually Restored

Air connectivity with key markets is also beginning to stabilize. Hermes Airports recently confirmed that several routes between Cyprus and European destinations have resumed. Emirates has restarted flights to Larnaca, strengthening connections with international markets. Haris Papacharalambous, president of the Association of Cyprus Travel and Tourism Agents (ACTTA), noted that the return of routes from the United Kingdom and airlines within the Lufthansa Group is gradually restoring Cyprus’ connectivity with major tourism markets.

While the tourism industry braces for continued volatility, the consensus remains that a swift end to the hostilities in the Middle East is essential for Cyprus to regain its historical vibrancy as a top tourist destination.

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