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Cyprus Presidency Unveils Strategic Economic Agenda At Inaugural ECOFIN Meeting

A Self-Reliant Union Open To The World

Finance Minister Makis Keravnos outlined the Cyprus Presidency of the European Union Council’s strategic programme at the first ECOFIN meeting in Brussels under Cyprus’ term. Emphasizing a vision of a self-reliant union that remains open to the world, Keravnos affirmed the presidency’s commitment to delivering an ambitious and impactful agenda amidst a period of significant global geopolitical realignment.

Enhancing Economic Autonomy And Competitive Edge

Amid mounting international uncertainties, including challenges on both economic and security fronts, the finance minister stressed that strengthening the EU’s economic autonomy and global position will be central over the coming six months. This focus extends to critical areas such as the Savings and Investments Union and the Capital Markets Union, both pivotal in boosting EU competitiveness and integrating the banking sector. In parallel, initiatives to simplify tax legislation are set to bolster broader competitiveness across the bloc.

Legislative Initiative And Regulatory Oversight

The presidency is poised to push forward legislative reforms, including modernizing the Customs Union and advancing technical amendments to the Recovery and Resilience Plans for several member states. It also announced targeted oversight of the European Semester, with an emphasis on monitoring fiscal imbalances and ensuring that fiscal policies remain aligned with EU treaty limits. Notably, Finland has been placed under enhanced scrutiny following its excessive deficit, with clear targets set for resolution by 2028.

Solidarity With Ukraine And Strategic Defense

The Cyprus Presidency has prioritized maintaining robust financial support for Ukraine. Keravnos confirmed that ensuring timely and adequate funding is essential for Ukraine’s defense and future reconstruction, reinforcing EU-wide commitment amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. European Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis, in his opening remarks, reiterated the importance of unity, competitiveness, and a coordinated defense strategy, underscoring that any challenge to the sovereignty of member states remains unacceptable.

Coherent Policy And Strategic Collaboration

Discussions during the meeting also extended to broader geopolitical topics, including EU-US relations and the security dynamics involving Denmark and Greenland. Both Keravnos and Dombrovskis highlighted the necessity for swift political decisions and coordinated actions, emphasizing that finance ministers are well-positioned to translate high-level directives into concrete economic proposals. As stakeholders prepare for upcoming high-level meetings, the message is clear: a strong, united, and responsive EU remains indispensable in addressing both current and future challenges.

IMF Says Cyprus Growth Will Ease As Energy Costs And Regional Tensions Weigh On Economy

Cyprus is expected to remain among the better-performing economies in the European Union, although growth is projected to moderate this year as higher energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and softer tourism activity weigh on economic momentum.

Growth Set To Moderate After A Strong Run

In its latest Article IV Consultation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that the Cypriot economy has remained resilient despite a challenging external environment. However, the Fund expects growth to slow compared with last year as rising energy costs and regional tensions begin to affect household incomes, business confidence, and tourism flows.

“Growth is expected to moderate this year as higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions weigh on real incomes, tourism and confidence,” the IMF said.

The Fund projects GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, compared with 3.8% in 2025. Under a more adverse scenario involving a prolonged crisis in the Gulf region, growth could slow further to 1.7%.

Inflation Is Turning Higher Again

Alongside slower growth, inflation is expected to increase in the near term after easing significantly last year. According to the IMF, higher energy costs linked to developments in the Middle East are beginning to feed through to consumer prices.

“Inflation is projected to rise in the near term before easing. Risks are tilted to the downside, notably from a more prolonged war in the Middle East, tighter global financial conditions and weaker external demand. Medium-term prospects are more balanced, supported by strong fundamentals and reform momentum,” the Fund said.

The harmonised inflation rate, which declined to 0.8% in 2025, is forecast to rise to 3.5% this year before easing again to 1.5% in 2027.

Tourism Softens, But Fiscal And Financial Buffers Hold

While the IMF pointed to signs of weaker tourism activity, it said the broader economy continues to benefit from strong fiscal and financial fundamentals.

“Fiscal performance has remained strong, with continued surpluses and public debt declining below 60 per cent of GDP. The financial sector is sound, with strong capital and liquidity buffers and improving asset quality,” the report noted.

Domestic demand remains resilient, while exports of services continue to support economic activity. Sectors such as information and communications technology and tourism are expected to remain important contributors to growth, helping Cyprus maintain one of the strongest economic performances within the EU.

A Recovery Built On Policy Discipline

The IMF praised the Cypriot authorities for maintaining a strong fiscal position, rebuilding policy buffers and putting public debt on a clear downward trajectory. It also pointed to the country’s remarkable rebound since the 2013 banking crisis. Per capita GDP, measured against the EU average, has now returned to pre-crisis levels.

That said, the Fund urged policymakers to keep focusing on the quality of public finances. It said Cyprus should improve the efficiency of spending and taxation, prioritise high-quality public investment and maintain discipline in public wage growth.

Any support for households, the IMF added, should be temporary and tightly targeted. It welcomed the government’s recent comprehensive tax reform and a proposal to build financial assets in the social security fund.

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