Cyprus Prepares Economic Scenarios As Iran Conflict Raises Risks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 20, 2026

Cyprus Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said the ministry is preparing multiple scenarios to address potential economic effects linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Work focuses on assessing risks to inflation, energy costs, and broader economic activity.

Monitoring Developments In A Complex Regional Landscape

Keravnos said the ministry is monitoring developments and preparing responses based on evolving conditions. Measures remain under review as authorities assess potential economic impact.

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Adaptive Policy Measures Under Consideration

Speaking after a meeting with Edek President Nikos Anastasiou, Keravnos said the ministry is evaluating a range of policy options. “At this moment, the finance ministry is processing scenarios, and we are monitoring developments,” he said. Questions were raised about possible fuel tax reductions, but Keravnos said no decisions have been made. “The measures have not yet been specified, but we are processing various scenarios,” he said.

Leveraging Experience In Crisis Management

Keravnos said the ministry is using previous experience from managing economic risks, including responses to regional conflicts. Monitoring and early policy planning have been part of the ministry’s approach over the past two years. Ongoing measures addressing cost-of-living pressures remain in place and form part of the current response framework.

An Evolving Response Strategy

Government response will depend on how the situation develops. Policy measures are expected to focus on supporting households and businesses while managing fiscal impact. The approach is based on monitoring data and adjusting policy tools as conditions change.

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ECB Raises Deposit Facility Rate For First Time In Nearly Two Years

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 15, 2026

Economic Shift: ECB Reverses Years Of Declining Rates

The European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed its first interest rate increase in nearly two years, raising the deposit facility rate in response to inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Marking a shift in monetary policy, the move follows a period of rate cuts aimed at supporting economic activity and easing financing conditions.

Reevaluation Of Bank Liquidity Strategies

Although the immediate impact will be felt by only part of the borrowing market, the decision carries broader implications for banks. During the period of lower rates, banks maintained significant amounts of excess liquidity with the ECB as returns on these funds declined alongside deposit rates. With the deposit facility rate increasing by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25% from 2.00%, returns on surplus liquidity are expected to improve.

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Higher interest rates, however, could also increase borrowing costs and influence lending conditions across the banking sector.

Transitioning Investment Approaches And Market Dynamics

Banks had already begun diversifying the use of excess liquidity through investments in bonds and by expanding lending activities.

Successive reductions in the deposit facility rate from 3.00% at the end of 2024 through four consecutive cuts in early 2025 reflected a more accommodative policy stance as inflation pressures moderated.

Sectoral Impact And Future Outlook

Data from the ECB’s 2025 monetary policy report show that liquidity in the Cypriot banking system declined from €19.2 billion at the end of 2024 to €18.6 billion by the close of 2025. Despite the reduction, liquidity levels remained elevated. Outstanding loans increased from €27.6 billion to €31.7 billion, while deposits recorded a slight decline. Customer deposits continued to account for the vast majority of funding. By the fourth quarter of 2025, they represented 95% of total liabilities, highlighting their importance as the banking sector’s primary source of financing.

Changes in ECB rates are expected to influence how banks manage liquidity and allocate capital as monetary conditions evolve.

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