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Cyprus Labor Market Strengthens in Q1 2025: Lower Unemployment and Robust Employment Growth

Overview of Q1 2025 Trends

In the first quarter of 2025, Cyprus witnessed a favorable labor market shift as reported by the Cyprus Statistical Service (Cystat). The unemployment rate declined to 5.0%, with 26,161 individuals recorded as unemployed, compared to 29,102 in the same quarter last year. This positive movement is indicative of a broader economic adjustment in the region.

Labor Force Expansion and Demographic Insights

The total labor force increased to 519,433—a representation of 64.4% of the national population. Male participation reached 275,358 (69.8%), while female participation stood at 244,075 (59.3%). This marks an uptick from the 505,963 observed in Q1 2024, signaling an expanding pool of active job seekers contributing to the economy.

Employment Metrics and Sector Distribution

Employment figures also improved, with the number of employed persons rising to 493,272, corresponding to an employment rate of 61.2%. For the working-age group (20–64 years), the employment rate ascended to 80.0% from 78.5% in the previous year. Men maintained a stronger presence in the workforce at 85.5%, compared to 74.6% for women.

Sectoral analysis reveals that the services sector remains the dominant employer, engaging 81.1% of the workforce, while industry and agriculture accounted for 16.8% and 2.1% respectively. Full-time positions continued to dominate employment, representing 91.2% of the total, with part-time roles comprising the remaining 8.8%.

Insights on Employment Structure

An in-depth look at the employment structure shows that 90.3% of employed persons are employees, with 87.1% holding permanent positions. The share of self-employed individuals slightly declined to 9.7% from 10.4% the previous year, reflecting subtle shifts in workforce dynamics.

Youth and Later Career Perspectives

For young individuals aged 15–24, the unemployment rate fell sharply to 11.2% from 16.0% in Q1 2024. Meanwhile, those between 25–64 enjoyed a reduction in unemployment to 4.7%. Workers aged 55–64 maintained a stable employment rate around 70%, although gender disparities persisted, with men faring better than women.

Unemployment Duration and Future Outlook

Analysis by duration of unemployment reveals that a majority (61.3%) of job seekers have been unemployed for less than six months. In contrast, 23.5% are classified as long-term unemployed, suggesting areas where targeted policy interventions could further enhance labor market efficiencies.

Overall, the Q1 2025 figures highlight a resilient and gradually improving Cypriot labor market. As employment and participation rates continue to grow, policymakers and business leaders might view these trends as a positive signal of economic stabilization and potential for future expansion.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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