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Cyprus Gearing Up To Tap International Markets Following Upward Ratings Momentum

The Finance Ministry is considering tapping international capital markets, utilising the positive momentum generated after repetitive upgrades of Cyprus’ sovereign credit rating by international rating agencies.

Cyprus has enjoyed two upgrades by rating agencies Standard and Poor’s and Fitch to “BBB+” with a positive outlook in the last two weeks, while Moody’s has revised Cyprus’ outlook to positive while affirming its Baa2 rating. Since 2023 Cyrpus’ long-term credit rating has been upgraded to invest-grade status by all rating agencies.

Sources have told CNA that the aim of the market exit is a ten-year bond, noting however that issues like the maturity and final amount to be issued are determined in consultation with the issuance’s advisor (to be assigned by the Public Debt Management Office, PDMO) as well as the prevailing market conditions.

The PDMO said that Cyprus financing needs for 2024 amount to €1.4 billion, of which €1 billion will be secured by an issuance via the European Medium-Term Note programme.

Furthermore, the PDMO said in its annual report for 2023 that the aim for the next years is to issue bonds worth at least between €1 and €1.5 billion EMTN bonds annually, to secure the government’s annual financing needs.

The PDMO aims to smoothen Cyprus’ debt maturity curve, with longer maturity bonds, provided that the market conditions and the high-interest rate environment permit it.

The same source said the momentum for Cyprus, following the recent credit rating upgrades, is favourable.

Positive momentum is also created by the steadily declining trend in the debt-to-GDP ratio which is also favoured by Cyprus’ strong growth rate, which in the first quarter of 2024 amounted to 3.4% year on year, which was the third highest in the EU following Malta and Croatia, while in quarterly terms, Cyprus exhibited the second highest (1.2% seasonally adjusted) growth rate behind Malta.

Oil Prices Dip Amid Rising U.S. Crude Inventories and Middle East Tensions

Oil prices experienced a slight decline on Wednesday following reports of a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories. This drop was moderated by ongoing concerns over Middle East tensions, particularly as Israel continued its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

Brent crude futures saw a slight decrease of 0.3%, settling at $75.84 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also dipped 0.3% to $71.54 per barrel. Despite the decline, oil prices had risen earlier in the week, supported by uncertainty over how the Israel-Iran conflict might evolve, especially following U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s diplomatic efforts in Israel.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.64 million barrel rise in U.S. crude stocks last week, significantly higher than analysts’ expectations of a 300,000-barrel increase. This unexpected stockpile increase weighed on the market, adding pressure to oil prices.

Analysts are also keeping an eye on China’s economic stimulus efforts, which could positively influence global oil demand. Market strategists, like Yeap Jun Rong, have noted that the potential for a longer conflict in the Middle East could lead to continued price volatility.

This situation, combined with geopolitical risks and economic variables, continues to impact global oil markets, leaving traders wary of further price shifts.

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