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Cyprus GDP to Grow 3.7% in 2024—Here’s What to Expect in 2025-2026

Cyprus’ economy gained momentum in 2024, with real GDP growth revised up to 3.7%, an upward adjustment of 0.2 percentage points, according to the latest Economic Outlook from the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) at the University of Cyprus. Growth is projected to remain solid but moderate in the coming years, with forecasts of 3.3% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.

Economic Drivers Behind The Growth

The upward revision is attributed to stronger-than-expected performance in Q3 2024, alongside positive economic indicators in Q4. The labour market’s resilience, disinflationary trends, and monetary policy easing in the eurozone have further bolstered the outlook.

Other forecasts align with this trajectory. The Central Bank of Cyprus estimates 3.7% GDP growth in 2024, while the European Commission projects 3.6%. Looking ahead to 2025, both institutions anticipate a deceleration, with the Central Bank forecasting 3% and the European Commission predicting 2.8%. In 2026, the Central Bank expects a slight uptick to 3.1%, whereas the European Commission foresees a continued slowdown to 2.5%.

Inflation And Market Conditions

Inflation is expected to remain subdued, with CPI inflation forecast at 1.7% in 2025, a 0.4 percentage point drop from previous estimates due to lower-than-expected inflation in late 2024. For 2026, inflation is projected to edge lower to 1.6%.

Key factors shaping the inflation outlook include:

  • Falling international oil prices
  • A slowdown in inflation during H2 2024
  • Restrictive financing conditions
  • Lower selling price expectations, particularly in services

Risks And Uncertainties

CypERC highlights downside risks to the growth outlook, particularly amid rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in global trade policies. Conversely, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, as external shocks and supply chain disruptions could drive price pressures higher.

As Cyprus navigates 2025 and beyond, the economy remains on a steady expansion path, though global and regional developments will play a crucial role in shaping its trajectory.

Cyprus Government Fortifies Economic Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty

Government Commitment to Stability and Growth

Cyprus continues to build a strong and resilient economic foundation to support business planning and investment, as emphasized by Deputy Minister to the President Irene Piki. Representing President Nikos Christodoulides at the 12th Keve Business Leader Awards, Piki underscored that in today’s volatile global landscape, a consistent and reliable economy remains the cornerstone for long‐term strategic planning and confidence-building among businesses.

Strengthening Competitive Edge and Attracting Investment

Piki lauded the role of the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Keve) for its dedication to promoting Cyprus as an attractive investment destination and for supporting the expansion of local businesses. Reflecting on President Christodoulides’s recent address at Keve’s annual general assembly, she outlined the government’s vision for a more competitive Cyprus, which includes expanding market access, improving financing channels, and implementing a streamlined, business-friendly regulatory framework—all pivotal as Cyprus prepares for its EU Council presidency.

Economic Indicators Reflecting Confidence

Despite global uncertainties, Piki highlighted that the Cypriot economy continues to demonstrate resilience: gross domestic product grew by 3.4% in 2024, and forecasts indicate nearly 4% growth in 2025. With inflation remaining among the lowest in the European Union and unemployment dropping below 5%, these indicators affirm steady economic progress. Furthermore, positive ratings from international credit agencies, which have placed Cyprus in the A category with upbeat outlooks, underscore the success of prudent economic policies.

Fiscal Discipline and Strategic Investments

The government’s upcoming 2026 budget, which reinforces fiscal stability with a surplus balance and targets a decline in public debt to 50.9% of GDP, opens the door for strategic policy interventions. Piki noted that investments in energy, digital infrastructure, technology, and green growth are key priorities. Enhanced by the nearing completion of Recovery and Resilience Plan projects, Cyprus is now setting the stage for the next seven-year EU funding framework, ensuring a robust platform for sustained growth with active collaboration from the business community.

Regulatory Reforms and Market Liberalization

Central to the government’s agenda is the imminent tax reform, expected to be finalized on December 22 and implemented on January 1, 2026. This reform is designed to bolster business liquidity and attract new investments. The establishment of the National Enterprise Development Organisation further complements these efforts by offering financing tools and advisory services for small and medium-sized enterprises. Complementing these initiatives, the Cyprus Equity Fund is actively investing in innovative companies, while the Ministry of Energy grant schemes are projected to mobilize €360 million by 2027 to boost competitiveness.

Accelerating Digital Transformation and Energy Reforms

In its pursuit of a modernized business environment, the government is set to introduce a Business Service Centre in central Nicosia in 2025, consolidating licensing procedures to significantly reduce bureaucratic delays. In tandem, the impending launch of a competitive electricity market in October 2025 will empower companies to select their energy suppliers, fostering market competition and fair pricing.

Nurturing Human Capital

Recognizing the importance of talent in driving economic progress, the government is intensifying efforts to attract skilled professionals back to Cyprus. The Minds in Cyprus initiative, a collaboration with Keve and Invest Cyprus, seeks to reverse the talent drain by engaging Cypriots abroad through a series of events scheduled in the United States, United Kingdom, and Greece during 2026.

Commitment to Sustainable Growth

Concluding her address, Deputy Minister Piki congratulated the award recipients for their innovation and resilience, asserting that their achievements are a testament to the dynamism of the Cypriot business community. The government remains steadfast in its commitment to implementing reforms that support a stable, competitive, and sustainable economic future for Cyprus.

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