Cyprus’ economy gained momentum in 2024, with real GDP growth revised up to 3.7%, an upward adjustment of 0.2 percentage points, according to the latest Economic Outlook from the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) at the University of Cyprus. Growth is projected to remain solid but moderate in the coming years, with forecasts of 3.3% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.
Economic Drivers Behind The Growth
The upward revision is attributed to stronger-than-expected performance in Q3 2024, alongside positive economic indicators in Q4. The labour market’s resilience, disinflationary trends, and monetary policy easing in the eurozone have further bolstered the outlook.
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Other forecasts align with this trajectory. The Central Bank of Cyprus estimates 3.7% GDP growth in 2024, while the European Commission projects 3.6%. Looking ahead to 2025, both institutions anticipate a deceleration, with the Central Bank forecasting 3% and the European Commission predicting 2.8%. In 2026, the Central Bank expects a slight uptick to 3.1%, whereas the European Commission foresees a continued slowdown to 2.5%.
Inflation And Market Conditions
Inflation is expected to remain subdued, with CPI inflation forecast at 1.7% in 2025, a 0.4 percentage point drop from previous estimates due to lower-than-expected inflation in late 2024. For 2026, inflation is projected to edge lower to 1.6%.
Key factors shaping the inflation outlook include:
- Falling international oil prices
- A slowdown in inflation during H2 2024
- Restrictive financing conditions
- Lower selling price expectations, particularly in services
Risks And Uncertainties
CypERC highlights downside risks to the growth outlook, particularly amid rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in global trade policies. Conversely, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, as external shocks and supply chain disruptions could drive price pressures higher.
As Cyprus navigates 2025 and beyond, the economy remains on a steady expansion path, though global and regional developments will play a crucial role in shaping its trajectory.
