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Cyprus Energy Sector Review Highlights Five Steps To Reduce Electricity Costs

Overview Of A Competitive Market Transformation

The Cyprus Electricity Market Association (ΣΑΗ) recently held a press briefing presenting an overview of developments in the country’s energy sector. The discussion focused on the operation of the Competitive Electricity Market, the increasing role of renewable energy sources and the performance of the Public Power Corporation (ΑΗΚ). Participants reviewed current market dynamics and highlighted several structural challenges affecting electricity prices and the pace of the energy transition.

Five Key Strategies To Lower Electricity Costs

Under the leadership of President George Chrysokho, the association presented five proposals aimed at reducing electricity costs for households and businesses. These recommendations include improving the functioning of the competitive electricity market, removing regulatory restrictions that slow renewable energy projects, expanding energy storage infrastructure, modernizing distribution networks under more independent management and integrating natural gas into Cyprus’s energy mix. According to the association, these measures could improve market efficiency and create conditions for lower electricity prices over time.

Embracing Natural Gas For Enhanced Efficiency

A central topic of the discussion was the potential role of natural gas in electricity generation. According to the association’s estimates, the use of natural gas could reduce emissions by around 40% while lowering electricity production costs by roughly 30%. Current market conditions support this argument. The TTF benchmark price is approximately 31 Eur/MWth, making natural gas about 25% cheaper than diesel. Electricity generation using natural gas is also estimated to be 7-8% more efficient than production based on heavy fuel oil, which currently remains a primary fuel source in Cyprus.

Shifting Production Landscapes: The Role Of Private Renewable Producers

The association also presented updated figures on electricity production in Cyprus. Private renewable energy producers currently account for about 6.4% of total market share, operating a combined installed capacity of 324 MW. At the same time, the Public Power Corporation remains the dominant producer, generating approximately 72.6% of the country’s electricity.

This imbalance between public generation and private renewable production continues to shape discussions about market liberalization and competitive conditions in the sector.

Critical Review Of Public Power Corporation’s Renewable Energy Portfolio

During the briefing, the association also reviewed the Public Power Corporation’s progress in renewable energy development. Over the past decade, the corporation has received licenses for 28 renewable projects with a combined capacity of 171.9 MW. However, only five projects, totaling 23 MW, are currently operational. The association also noted that public procurement agreements allow the corporation to purchase renewable energy at a regulated price of 11 cents per kilowatt-hour. Data from the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority (ΡΑΕΚ) indicate that by August 2025, approximately 26% of Cyprus’s electricity will come from renewable sources. Of that amount, about 21% is commercially utilized by the corporation through feed-in tariff and net-billing contracts.

This analysis highlights the need for further reforms in Cyprus’s energy sector. Increased investment in renewable energy, energy storage and natural gas infrastructure could help reduce electricity costs while improving efficiency and sustainability across the market.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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