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Cyprus Economy: Strong Growth Ahead Despite Structural Challenges

Cyprus is poised to sustain strong economic growth in the coming years, according to a recent report from the Canadian rating agency Morningstar DBRS. The agency also predicts a steady decline in unemployment, which is expected to bolster the nation’s fiscal performance.

Despite these positive projections, the report highlights persistent hurdles facing the Cypriot economy. As a small, service-driven market, Cyprus remains highly susceptible to external shocks. Additionally, while strides have been made to reduce non-performing loans (NPLs), their levels still exceed the Eurozone average. Challenges in labour market productivity further restrict the nation’s economic potential.

On a brighter note, progress in addressing NPLs has been significant. Data from the Central Bank of Cyprus show that NPL ratios in approved credit institutions dropped to 6.8% in August 2024, a dramatic reduction from 43.7% at the end of 2017. This improvement represents an €18.9 billion decrease in absolute terms.

Morningstar DBRS anticipates this downward trajectory to persist but acknowledges that eliminating the remaining NPLs will require time. By mid-2024, credit acquisition companies managed exposures of approximately €21 billion, with 94% classified as non-performing.

The report also notes delays faced by KEDIPES, the state-owned asset management company. Challenges such as foreclosure moratoriums, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions have pushed the company’s operational deadline to 2030.

Housing prices, meanwhile, have shown sustained growth. As of Q2 2024, property prices in Cyprus rose by an annual rate of 8.0%, with house prices increasing by 6.2% and apartment prices surging by 12.0%. Most of the real estate collateral tied to NPLs consists of residential properties, with Nicosia and Limassol identified as the most stable markets on the island.

While structural vulnerabilities persist, Morningstar DBRS’s analysis underscores Cyprus’ resilience and ability to adapt. Continued efforts to address NPLs, coupled with a robust housing market and improved employment metrics, suggest the nation is on a steady path toward economic stability and growth.

What Cyprus Can Learn From Greece And Malta’s Growth Strategies

Across the Mediterranean, countries are increasingly competing not only for tourists but also for long-term residents, investment and skilled professionals. Greece and Malta have adopted different strategies to achieve that goal, offering two models that may hold lessons for Cyprus.

The shift comes as the traditional tourism model faces growing pressure. Climate change, overtourism and the rise of remote work have exposed the limitations of economies that depend heavily on peak summer demand. Increasingly, Mediterranean countries are looking for ways to extend tourism activity into year-round economic growth.

Greece Stopped Selling Only The Summer

Greece offers one of the clearest examples of that transition. While its islands have long depended on July and August tourism, many have spent the past decade extending the season through infrastructure investment. Fibre connectivity has expanded to islands that once struggled with unreliable service, while ports have been upgraded with European recovery funding. On islands such as Naxos and Paros, the tourism season now stretches from Easter through November.

A longer season is also attracting more long-term visitors considering relocation rather than short holidays. Unlike tourists who leave after a week, residents contribute to the local economy throughout the year through housing, banking, education and everyday spending.

Athens has adjusted its policy framework accordingly. In 2024, it revised its residency-linked property investment rules, raising the investment threshold to €800,000 in high-demand areas including central Athens, Mykonos and Santorini, while maintaining a €400,000 threshold elsewhere. The objective was to redirect foreign investment toward regions with greater capacity while easing pressure on the country’s hottest property markets.

The policy has attracted attention for attempting to balance investment with concerns over housing affordability and the long-term sustainability of local communities.

Malta Turned Staying Into A Product

Malta has pursued a different strategy. Without Greece’s size or tourism volumes, it focused on attracting internationally mobile industries including financial services, iGaming and maritime registration. Competitive regulation and targeted policies helped establish the country as a base for those sectors.

The result has been a service-driven economy and one of the fastest-growing populations in the European Union, supported largely by international workers.

Alongside employment-based pathways, Malta also offers a residence programme for non-EU nationals combining a government contribution, a property purchase or long-term lease, and a philanthropic donation. Lower property thresholds in southern Malta and Gozo are intended to steer investment towards less-developed areas.

Whatever the broader debate surrounding such schemes, the policy reflects a consistent objective: converting foreign interest into long-term economic participation.

The Risks Of Success

Neither approach is without trade-offs. In Greece, Santorini has become a symbol of overtourism, with cruise arrivals placing increasing pressure on local infrastructure and prompting discussions over visitor limits. Rising demand for short-term rentals has also reduced housing availability for local residents in several destinations.

Malta faces different challenges. Rapid population growth has added pressure to infrastructure and housing, while the country has spent years rebuilding the reputation of its financial services sector following international scrutiny.

Both cases illustrate that attracting investment is only part of the equation. Managing its impact on housing, infrastructure and local communities is equally important.

What Cyprus Can Learn

Taken together, Greece and Malta demonstrate two distinct approaches to long-term economic development.

Greece is seeking to channel investment towards regions that can accommodate growth while reducing pressure on its busiest destinations. Malta has built its strategy around specialised industries, regulatory certainty and structured pathways for long-term residence.

For Cyprus, the lesson is not to replicate either model. Rather, it is to understand the trade-offs behind each approach. As competition for investment and internationally mobile residents intensifies across the Mediterranean, long-term success will depend not only on attracting people and capital, but also on ensuring growth remains sustainable for local communities.

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