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Cyprus Economy: Strong Growth Ahead Despite Structural Challenges

Cyprus is poised to sustain strong economic growth in the coming years, according to a recent report from the Canadian rating agency Morningstar DBRS. The agency also predicts a steady decline in unemployment, which is expected to bolster the nation’s fiscal performance.

Despite these positive projections, the report highlights persistent hurdles facing the Cypriot economy. As a small, service-driven market, Cyprus remains highly susceptible to external shocks. Additionally, while strides have been made to reduce non-performing loans (NPLs), their levels still exceed the Eurozone average. Challenges in labour market productivity further restrict the nation’s economic potential.

On a brighter note, progress in addressing NPLs has been significant. Data from the Central Bank of Cyprus show that NPL ratios in approved credit institutions dropped to 6.8% in August 2024, a dramatic reduction from 43.7% at the end of 2017. This improvement represents an €18.9 billion decrease in absolute terms.

Morningstar DBRS anticipates this downward trajectory to persist but acknowledges that eliminating the remaining NPLs will require time. By mid-2024, credit acquisition companies managed exposures of approximately €21 billion, with 94% classified as non-performing.

The report also notes delays faced by KEDIPES, the state-owned asset management company. Challenges such as foreclosure moratoriums, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions have pushed the company’s operational deadline to 2030.

Housing prices, meanwhile, have shown sustained growth. As of Q2 2024, property prices in Cyprus rose by an annual rate of 8.0%, with house prices increasing by 6.2% and apartment prices surging by 12.0%. Most of the real estate collateral tied to NPLs consists of residential properties, with Nicosia and Limassol identified as the most stable markets on the island.

While structural vulnerabilities persist, Morningstar DBRS’s analysis underscores Cyprus’ resilience and ability to adapt. Continued efforts to address NPLs, coupled with a robust housing market and improved employment metrics, suggest the nation is on a steady path toward economic stability and growth.

S&P Affirms Cyprus At A- With Positive Outlook

S&P Global Ratings confirmed Cyprus’s sovereign rating at A- with a positive outlook on March 20, 2026, according to the Ministry of Finance. This decision reflects stable economic performance despite ongoing external pressures, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Steady Economic Growth Amid Geopolitical Pressures

S&P expects economic growth to continue at around 3%, slightly lower than in previous years but still above the pace seen in many European economies. Fiscal surpluses are also expected to continue, supporting overall stability.

Robust Debt Management And Fiscal Discipline

Public debt has declined in recent years, supported by strong fiscal performance and higher service exports. Improvements in the banking sector, including lower non-performing loans and stable credit growth, have also contributed to a stronger economic position.

Impact Of The Middle East Conflict

Conflict in the Middle East remains the main external risk. However, the positive outlook indicates that Cyprus is considered capable of managing potential shocks. Future rating changes will depend on public finances, economic performance and foreign investment flows.

Government Policy And Economic Management

According to the Ministry of Finance, the rating reflects continued fiscal discipline and economic management. Recent performance has been supported by the handling of earlier shocks, including the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

Industry And Sectoral Insights

S&P noted that key sectors remain stable, despite potential pressure from tourism and energy costs. In particular, the banking sector continues to show strong profitability, capital levels and liquidity.

Energy Security And Future Prospects

Energy remains a key challenge, with costs among the highest in the EU. Plans to develop LNG infrastructure and explore natural gas resources are expected to support supply in the medium term.  Regional energy projects continue to face geopolitical constraints.

Outlook

S&P expects GDP growth to average around 2.8% between 2026 and 2029, while public debt is projected to decline further. Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said the rating confirms the government’s economic policy and supports Cyprus’s position as a stable European economy.

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