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Cyprus Economic Resilience Shines Amid Global Turbulence

Robust Growth in an Uncertain World

In a recent address during the state budget discussion, the President of the Democratic Party, Nikolas Papadopoulos, delivered a powerful message on the resilience and dynamism of the Cypriot economy. At a time when much of Europe contends with recession or stagnation, Cyprus is setting the pace—with growth projections of 3.4% by the European Commission and 3.6% by the Ministry of Finance for 2025.

Unprecedented Labor and Earnings Gains

Papadopoulos highlighted that the country now enjoys complete employment, with 144,000 more Cypriots employed compared to 2013. Further reinforcing this economic strength, data from the Central Bank show a 40% increase in average wages since 2013 and a 21% boost in citizens’ purchasing power. Bank deposits have surged too, now standing at €50 billion—a 53% increase over the past decade.

Addressing Socioeconomic Disparities

Despite these positive indicators, the President of DIKO acknowledged that escalating living costs and inflationary pressures are straining significant segments of the population. Vulnerable groups, including pensioners and refugees, are particularly affected as their incomes have not kept pace with rising expenses. Moreover, Cyprus faces a steep challenge in housing and energy costs, with the island currently shouldering the second most expensive business electricity rates in Europe.

Strategic Reforms for Pension, Housing, and Taxation

On the pension front, Papadopoulos called for a sweeping reform that focuses on ensuring pensions are both adequate and dignified. DIKO is advocating for an increase of at least €300 per month in low and middle-tier pensions. In tandem, proposals to boost the housing stock include new urban planning policies, the strategic use of urban space, refurbishment of heritage centers, and government-backed social housing programs. In addition, there is strong support for tax reform aimed at strengthening families and leveling the competitive field for Cypriot businesses.

Effective Migration Policies and Energy Initiatives

Regarding migration, the policies initiated by the party since 2017 have yielded significant results. Asylum applications have dropped by 75% since 2022, and there were zero maritime arrivals in 2025. Cyprus now stands as the only EU nation reporting a reduction in migratory flows—a success recognized by the European Commission.

Ensuring National Energy Security

Arguably, the most critical challenge highlighted was the looming threat to the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) project. Papadopoulos stressed that discontinuing this vital electricity interconnection would have severe economic and geopolitical repercussions, potentially straining ties with the European Union and Greece. The GSI represents a milestone in ending Cyprus’s energy isolation and implementing cost reductions for consumers.

Geopolitical Implications and a Vision for the Future

Turning to the long-standing Cyprus dispute, Papadopoulos unequivocally placed responsibility for its stalemate on Turkey, cautioning against any misinterpretations of Ankara’s intentions. He underscored that any sustainable resolution must prioritize national security. Looking ahead, with Cyprus slated to assume the EU Council Presidency in 2026, Papadopoulos expressed confidence in the nation’s ability to be a “luminous example of democracy and European values.”

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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