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Cyprus’ Economic Resilience Affirmed: Fitch Confirms ‘A-‘ Rating Amid Fiscal Strength


Strong Fiscal Fundamentals and Robust Economic Growth

The international credit ratings agency Fitch has affirmed Cyprus’ long-term rating at A- with a stable outlook. This decision reflects the nation’s strong public finances, a significant reduction in debt levels, and steady economic growth. Officials at the finance ministry welcomed the move, describing it as a robust vote of confidence in the government’s prudent economic policies.

Notable Budget Surpluses and Debt Reduction

Fitch highlights Cyprus’ high primary budget surplus, projected at 4.3% of GDP for 2024, alongside a dramatic drop in public debt from 73.6% of GDP in 2023 to 65.3% by year-end. The surplus soared to 5.6%, marking the highest level in nearly two decades, largely due to rising revenues and disciplined spending. The agency forecasts continuous improvement with debt falling further to 52.6% of GDP in 2026 and potentially nearing 45% by 2030, assuming current trends persist.

Economic Performance and Labor Market Strength

Cyprus’ economy is projected to grow at 3% for both 2025 and 2026, following a 3.4% expansion in 2024. A robust services sector and a healthy labor market are propelling this growth, with employment rising by 2% in 2024 and unemployment declining to 4.5%, close to record lows.

Market Vulnerabilities and External Challenges

Despite these positive developments, Fitch underscored persistent vulnerabilities, including a high current account deficit — estimated at around 7% of GDP over the coming years. This deficit, among the highest in the EU, is offset by sustained foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into a diverse range of sectors. Additionally, while Cyprus’ banking system remains stable with a top-tier CET1 ratio of 24.5% and declining non-performing loans, long-term risks persist due to governance issues relative to other A-rated peers and exposure to regional geopolitical tensions.

Outlook and Policy Implications

Although Fitch’s model initially rated Cyprus at A, external risks necessitated a one-notch reduction. Future upgrades will hinge on continued debt reduction and narrowing the external deficit. Conversely, a downturn in public finances or a severe external shock could precipitate a downgrade. The finance ministry stated that the report is a testament to Cyprus’ steady economic trajectory, highlighting the ongoing commitment to responsible fiscal management as essential for bolstering both competitiveness and stability.

In conclusion, the agency’s assessment reinforces Cyprus’ sound economic fundamentals, while also flagging areas that require ongoing vigilance. As the government continues to implement strategic economic reforms, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic amid the broader global economic uncertainties.


Copyright Law Struggles To Keep Up With AI Training

Courts Are Still Applying Old Copyright Rules To AI

AI companies train models on enormous amounts of published material, including books, articles and academic research. Whether using that content without authors’ permission violates copyright law remains unresolved.

Much of the debate centres on fair use, which allows copyrighted material to be used without permission in certain circumstances. Courts consider factors such as the purpose of the use, how much material was involved and its impact on the original market.

Anthropic Case Sets An Important Precedent

A major case involving Anthropic and a group of authors provided one of the clearest rulings so far. Judge William Alsup found that using copyrighted books to train AI models was lawful, comparing the process to people reading and studying literature before creating something new.

Anthropic was nevertheless ordered to pay $1.5 billion in a settlement. The penalty concerned books the company had obtained from illegal online libraries rather than the AI training itself.

For AI companies, that distinction could prove significant because it separates studying copyrighted material from directly copying it.

Competition Could Be The Key Issue

A case involving Thomson Reuters and Ross Intelligence offers a different perspective. A court ruled that Ross could not claim fair use after using Reuters’ copyrighted material to develop a competing AI-powered legal research platform.

The decision suggests courts may be less willing to consider AI training fair use when copyrighted content is used to build a product that directly competes with the original.

For authors, an unresolved question is whether AI-generated content should be considered competition for the works used to train these models.

The Law Has Yet To Catch Up

US copyright law predates generative AI by decades, leaving courts to apply old principles to new technology. Questions also remain over copyright protection for AI-generated works. In Thaler v. Perlmutter, a court ruled that material created entirely by AI cannot receive copyright protection.

Major AI companies remain involved in copyright litigation, and different courts could reach different conclusions. For now, there is no universal rule: the legality of AI training will depend on the circumstances of each case and how courts ultimately interpret copyright and fair use.

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