Cyprus’ Economic Resilience Affirmed: Fitch Confirms ‘A-‘ Rating Amid Fiscal Strength

Strong Fiscal Fundamentals and Robust Economic Growth

The international credit ratings agency Fitch has affirmed Cyprus’ long-term rating at A- with a stable outlook. This decision reflects the nation’s strong public finances, a significant reduction in debt levels, and steady economic growth. Officials at the finance ministry welcomed the move, describing it as a robust vote of confidence in the government’s prudent economic policies.

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Notable Budget Surpluses and Debt Reduction

Fitch highlights Cyprus’ high primary budget surplus, projected at 4.3% of GDP for 2024, alongside a dramatic drop in public debt from 73.6% of GDP in 2023 to 65.3% by year-end. The surplus soared to 5.6%, marking the highest level in nearly two decades, largely due to rising revenues and disciplined spending. The agency forecasts continuous improvement with debt falling further to 52.6% of GDP in 2026 and potentially nearing 45% by 2030, assuming current trends persist.

Economic Performance and Labor Market Strength

Cyprus’ economy is projected to grow at 3% for both 2025 and 2026, following a 3.4% expansion in 2024. A robust services sector and a healthy labor market are propelling this growth, with employment rising by 2% in 2024 and unemployment declining to 4.5%, close to record lows.

Market Vulnerabilities and External Challenges

Despite these positive developments, Fitch underscored persistent vulnerabilities, including a high current account deficit — estimated at around 7% of GDP over the coming years. This deficit, among the highest in the EU, is offset by sustained foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into a diverse range of sectors. Additionally, while Cyprus’ banking system remains stable with a top-tier CET1 ratio of 24.5% and declining non-performing loans, long-term risks persist due to governance issues relative to other A-rated peers and exposure to regional geopolitical tensions.

Outlook and Policy Implications

Although Fitch’s model initially rated Cyprus at A, external risks necessitated a one-notch reduction. Future upgrades will hinge on continued debt reduction and narrowing the external deficit. Conversely, a downturn in public finances or a severe external shock could precipitate a downgrade. The finance ministry stated that the report is a testament to Cyprus’ steady economic trajectory, highlighting the ongoing commitment to responsible fiscal management as essential for bolstering both competitiveness and stability.

In conclusion, the agency’s assessment reinforces Cyprus’ sound economic fundamentals, while also flagging areas that require ongoing vigilance. As the government continues to implement strategic economic reforms, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic amid the broader global economic uncertainties.

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Cyprus Foreclosure Reform Debate Intensifies Amid Rising Non-Performing Loans

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 18, 2026

Political Stakes And Foreclosure Regulation

Cypriot political parties are engaging in a high-stakes debate in parliament as they deliberate changes to the legal framework governing foreclosures ahead of the May parliamentary elections. The proposed shifts are aimed at curbing the rapid escalation in the value of non-performing loans, a trend that has sparked significant public and legislative concern. Confidential data from the Central Bank of Cyprus indicates that the nation has not yet moved away from its longstanding issues related to so-called “red loans.”

Non-Performing Loans: A Mounting Financial Challenge

Recent figures show that the value of distressed loans has continued to rise, surpassing €20 billion following transfers involving banks and credit recovery companies. This level exceeds the approximately €15 billion recorded during the economic crisis period. Central Bank data indicates that after loan sales, credit recovery firms now manage portfolios totaling €19.7 billion, of which €18.5 billion are classified as non-performing. About 87% of these loans are considered terminated, while the firms acquired 141,478 loans for €3.2 billion, roughly 80% below their original value.

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Credit Recovery Companies: Overshooting Investment Returns

By June, credit recovery companies had recovered €5.7 billion through a combination of cash repayments, judicial asset auctions and property-for-debt exchanges. Cash repayments accounted for €3.6 billion, judicial recoveries contributed €619 million, and property swaps added €1.5 billion. These recoveries exceeded the original purchase cost of many loan portfolios while overall balances continued to increase due to accrued interest, a development that remains a concern for policymakers.

Bank Portfolios And The Impact On Financial Stability

Data from the State Guarantee Fund for Deposits and Loans shows that 77,561 loans valued at €7.5 billion were transferred, leaving a remaining balance of €5.7 billion by June 2025, of which €5 billion are non-performing. Within the banking sector, non-performing loans totaled €1.45 billion across 24,736 accounts as of last June. Since December 2024, these figures have improved by approximately €86 million due to repayments and asset recoveries. The reduction in problematic loans has lowered bank exposure compared with levels recorded during the 2013 crisis.

Legislative Proposals And Government Considerations

Political leaders argue that adjustments to foreclosure procedures can be introduced without undermining banking stability. Parliament’s Economic Committee is scheduled to begin discussions on March 9, with an estimated 20 to 30 legislative proposals currently pending from multiple parties. While the Ministry of Finance has not announced immediate legislative action, officials are evaluating the potential reintroduction of elements of the Rent-Versus-Rate plan for vulnerable borrowers, subject to fiscal impact assessments.

Advocacy From AKEL And Environmental Groups

Proposals supported by the AKEL party and several civil organizations focus on strengthening legal protections for borrowers. Among the suggested measures is restoring the right to seek judicial relief to delay foreclosures in cases involving disputed charges or alleged abusive contract clauses. AKEL representative Aristos Damianou criticized the pace of foreclosure proceedings and warned of risks to primary residences and small businesses.

Proposals Targeting Guarantors And Foreclosure Processes

The Democratic Rally party has introduced a proposal aimed at limiting guarantor liability during foreclosure procedures. Under the draft measure, if a property is auctioned or repossessed, the guarantor’s responsibility would be capped at the original loan amount adjusted by recovered sums. The proposal also requires that enforcement actions against guarantors be suspended until a court ruling is issued if the borrower formally disputes the debt.

Revisions Proposed By The Democratic Party of Cyprus

The Democratic Party is also preparing new legislative measures to be introduced on Thursday. Party leader Mario Karogian outlined plans to suspend the foreclosures of primary residences valued up to €350,000 until the end of the year, allowing time to address legislative gaps. Additional proposals include broadening the powers of the Financial Ombudsperson to make binding decisions on disputes up to €50,000, enforcing the Central Bank’s code of conduct, and ensuring strict adherence to refinancing guidelines for first residences.

Outlook And Strategic Implications

The range of proposals reflects an ongoing effort to balance financial system stability with stronger consumer protections. Decisions made in the coming months are expected to shape the regulatory environment for foreclosures and influence broader confidence in Cyprus’ financial sector and economic outlook.

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