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Cyprus Central Bank Revises GDP Growth Projections Upward

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

December 20, 2024

The Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2024, increasing it by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%. This adjustment reflects stronger domestic demand, with private consumption playing a pivotal role, supported by the continued resilience of the Cypriot economy.

However, forecasts for 2025-2026 have been slightly downgraded due to the impact of rising imports needed to meet elevated domestic demand. While exports, particularly non-tourism services, remain a growth driver, they are not sufficient to fully offset the increase in imports.

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Labor Market Nearing Full Employment

The labor market in Cyprus continues to strengthen, with unemployment expected to fall to 5% in 2024, down from 5.8% in 2023. This trend is forecast to continue, with unemployment rates projected to drop to 4.9% in 2025, 4.7% in 2026, and 4.6% in 2027, approaching conditions of full employment.

The improved GDP outlook has led to a downward revision of the 2024 unemployment forecast by 0.1 percentage points. The sustained growth momentum of the economy is seen as the key factor driving this positive trend.

Inflation Stabilizing Towards Target Levels

Inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP), is expected to decline to 2.2% in 2024 from 3.9% in 2023, moving closer to the medium-term target of 2%. This stabilization is attributed to easing external inflationary pressures, including a reduction in energy and raw material prices, as well as the lagged effects of eurozone monetary policy, which continues to temper inflation.

Wage growth is anticipated to remain moderate, helping to limit inflationary pressures. However, the gradual introduction of a green carbon tax from 2025 may result in modest fuel price increases.

The normalization of inflation for industrial goods (excluding energy) is also expected between 2025 and 2027, following the high levels seen in 2022-2023. Core inflation—excluding energy and food—is forecast to decline from 3.8% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. Service price inflation is expected to decelerate during the 2025-2027 period.

The 2024 inflation forecast was revised upward by 0.1 percentage points compared to September 2024 projections, reflecting higher-than-expected service price inflation.

Risks And Prospects

The economic outlook for 2024 is balanced, while projections for 2025-2027 suggest a slight increase in downside risks.

Key downside risks include ongoing geopolitical tensions and weaker-than-expected external demand amid heightened global trade uncertainty. Domestically, the introduction of new taxes on multinational corporate profits could negatively impact economic performance, although the extent of this effect is uncertain. Slower-than-expected easing of financing conditions may also curb domestic demand.

On the upside, stronger-than-anticipated private consumption, driven by lower household savings rates, could boost economic performance.

Inflation risks for 2024 are balanced, while those for 2025-2027 lean slightly upward. Upside risks include potential geopolitical escalations, trade policy uncertainties (such as new US tariffs and EU retaliatory measures), and climate-related impacts like extreme weather events and the implementation of green taxation. Wage growth exceeding expectations and higher corporate profit margins could also contribute to inflationary pressures.

Conversely, inflation could underperform baseline projections if financing conditions ease more slowly than expected or if heightened geopolitical tensions unexpectedly weaken the global economic environment.

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EU Adopts New Package Travel Rules With 14-Day Refund Requirement

The Council of the European Union adopted updated rules on package travel, introducing stricter requirements for refunds, transparency and consumer protection across member states. Updated provisions revise the existing directive and define obligations for travel providers offering bundled services such as flights, accommodation and transfers.

Clarifying The Package Travel Directive

The updated directive clarifies the definition of package travel and excludes certain linked travel arrangements from its scope. Coverage applies to services sold as a single product, including combinations of transport, accommodation and additional services. This revision standardizes how travel products are classified and clarifies rights and obligations for both providers and consumers at the point of purchase.

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Enhancing Transparency And Consumer Rights

New rules require providers to disclose key information before and during travel, including payment terms, visa requirements, accessibility conditions and cancellation policies. These disclosures aim to reduce disputes and improve consumer awareness. Defined refund timelines include a 14-day period for cancellations due to extraordinary circumstances and up to six months in cases of organiser insolvency. The measures address gaps identified in earlier versions of the directive.

Ensuring Accountability And Trust In Travel Services

Organisers must implement complaint-handling systems and provide clear information on insolvency protection under the updated framework. These provisions aim to improve accountability across the travel sector. Previous disruptions, including the collapse of Thomas Cook and travel restrictions during COVID-19, exposed weaknesses in refund processes and consumer protection. Updated rules respond to those issues.

Implications For Cyprus And The Broader Industry

Tourism accounts for approximately 14% of Cyprus’s GDP, with package travel playing a central role in visitor flows. Major operators such as TUI and Jet2 provide structured travel offerings that support demand. Such operators contribute to revenue stability and help extend the tourism season by securing transport and accommodation in advance. Greater regulatory clarity may support continued sector growth.

A Model For Future Consumer Protection

Clearer rules on vouchers, refunds and insolvency protection now apply across the European Union. These measures aim to reduce consumer risk in cross-border travel. Implementation across member states will determine the impact on both consumers and travel providers. The framework may influence future regulatory approaches in the sector.