The Central Bank of Cyprus has revised its macroeconomic projections for 2025, forecasting a steady expansion of the national economy while cautioning that downside risks could temper future performance. The new estimates raise GDP growth to 3.3% for 2025, downshift unemployment to 4.6%, and predict a marked easing of inflation to 1%.
Steady Growth And Revised Projections
In its September update, the central bank slightly increased the anticipated GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points relative to its June forecast, largely due to a robust tourism sector. Despite these optimistic figures, the projections for 2026 to 2027 remain unchanged, underscoring the confidence in domestic demand as the central engine of economic activity.
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Domestic Demand And Investment Momentum
Domestic consumption is expected to benefit from rising real disposable incomes as inflation pressures wane, thereby supporting private consumption. In addition, major private non-residential investments, particularly in infrastructure that bolsters digital and green development, are projected to significantly advance the growth narrative. Reform initiatives under the Recovery and Resilience Plan will further contribute, albeit with residential investment playing a smaller role.
Inflation Dynamics And Energy Price Pressures
The forecast indicates a steep decline in overall inflation—from 2.3% in 2024 to 1% in 2025—driven primarily by softer non-energy industrial goods and a moderation in food prices. However, inflation is expected to rise gradually in subsequent years, reaching 2% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. These adjustments are linked to anticipated increases in energy prices due to the forthcoming introduction of a carbon tax and the expanded EU Emissions Trading System.
Risks And External Influences
While the outlook is generally positive, the central bank has flagged downside risks that could disrupt service exports indirectly through global trade policy uncertainties. Conversely, positive shocks—such as anticipated tax reform, stronger wage gains, and improved profit margins—could bolster private consumption and support economic expansion. Yet, inflation risks remain slightly tilted upward in this environment.
The detailed revisions by the Central Bank of Cyprus reflect a nuanced balancing act: a promising growth trajectory underpinned by domestic demand and tourism, offset by potential external vulnerabilities. The evolving economic landscape calls for vigilant monitoring as global trade dynamics and energy policies unfold in the coming years.
