Cyprus Central Bank Cuts Growth Outlook As Middle East Tensions Lift Inflation Forecast

The Central Bank of Cyprus has lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, warning that the war in the Middle East is creating a more challenging outlook for the economy through weaker tourism, higher energy prices and continued uncertainty over global trade. While domestic demand is expected to remain resilient, the bank now expects slower growth and higher inflation than it projected just three months ago.

Growth Outlook Softens On Geopolitical Shock

In its June 2026 Economic Bulletin, the Central Bank revised its GDP forecast for this year to 2.5%, down from 2.7% in March. Growth for 2027 was also trimmed slightly, from 3% to 2.9%, while the economy is still expected to expand by 3.1% in 2028.

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According to the bank, the downgrade is relatively modest because the March projections had already incorporated conservative assumptions about geopolitical risks. Even so, the outlook remains highly dependent on developments in the Middle East. If the agreement announced between the United States and Iran fails to materialise or is not implemented, Cyprus could face fuel shortages, higher import costs and further supply-chain disruption.

Those risks are expected to weigh most heavily on tourism, shipping, construction and real estate. As a result, the Central Bank expects net exports to subtract from economic growth this year because of weaker tourism revenues, lower shipping receipts and slower growth in other service exports. Domestic demand, however, should continue to provide support, helped by higher real household incomes, a resilient labour market and continued investment in large private projects, even if some of them are delayed.

“Although their implementation schedule may be affected by the crisis in the Middle East, these projects are not expected to be cancelled,”
the Central Bank said.

Inflation Forecast Raised

The biggest revision in the latest projections concerns inflation. The Central Bank now expects inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), to average 3.2% in 2026, compared with 0.8% in 2025 and 0.5 percentage points higher than forecast in March.

Higher energy prices remain the main driver, reflecting the impact of the conflict on international oil markets and supply chains. Those pressures are expected to feed through to food prices and other goods before inflation gradually eases to 1.9% in both 2027 and 2028. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise to 2.3% this year before moderating over the following two years.

Labour Market Remains A Bright Spot

Despite the weaker economic outlook, the labour market is expected to remain resilient. Employment growth is forecast to slow from 1.7% in 2025 to 1.3% this year before recovering in 2027 and 2028, while unemployment is projected to edge up only slightly to 4.6% before stabilising around 4.5%, a level the Central Bank considers consistent with full employment.

At the same time, policymakers warned that risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside. Persistently high oil prices, climate-related disruptions and stronger-than-expected wage growth could all keep price pressures elevated for longer than currently forecast.

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Cloudflare Sets New Default To Separate Search Crawlers From AI Bots

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

July 2, 2026

Cloudflare has drawn a sharper line between traditional search and artificial intelligence.

Beginning September 15, 2026, the company will change its default settings to block so-called mixed-use crawlers from pages that run ads, unless a site owner chooses otherwise. The policy applies to new Cloudflare customers, new sites created by existing customers, and all current free customers.

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A Clearer Divide In Web Access

The shift could materially reshape how AI companies collect web data for model training and agentic products. Cloudflare’s central argument is straightforward: most publishers want their content to remain visible in search and accessible through certain AI services, but they do not want that same material repurposed without compensation.

In Cloudflare’s view, the problem is not crawling itself. It is the blending of three different functions: search, agentic use, and training into a single bot that makes it difficult for website owners to set meaningful boundaries.

The Google Question

Cloudflare pointedly referenced the “world’s largest search engine,” an unmistakable nod to Google, arguing that it has access to roughly twice as much information as rival AI companies because it makes it harder for customers to stay discoverable without also being used for AI.

Google has disputed that framing. The company offers Google Extended, a crawler setting that lets publishers opt out of having content used for training and AI products such as Gemini apps and Vertex AI, without affecting visibility in Google Search. At the same time, Googlebot still crawls for Search and for AI-powered features such as AI Overviews and AI Mode.

Publishers Want Reach, Not Exploitation

Matthew Prince, Cloudflare’s co-founder and chief executive, said the company is moving quickly because the internet is now dominated by machine traffic.

“Now that the majority of traffic on the Internet is non-human, we must go further and act faster so that a sustainable ecosystem can emerge,” Prince said, referring to the recent milestone in which bots surpassed human traffic online sooner than expected.

Prince added that Cloudflare’s tools and partnerships are designed to give publishers more visibility and commercial leverage, while also rewarding AI companies that are transparent about how they use content.

From Pay Per Crawl To Pay Per Use

Cloudflare has increasingly positioned itself as a gatekeeper for publishers looking to assert control in the AI era. The company already offers tools to block AI bots, along with a marketplace called Pay Per Crawl, which lets websites charge AI systems for scraping.

That framework is now expanding into Pay Per Use, which Cloudflare says will allow publishers to charge AI companies when content creates value, not merely when it is fetched. In practical terms, that shifts the economics from extraction to monetization.

Cloudflare says the move may also reduce waste. Its data suggests more than half of crawl traffic from AI bots is spent revisiting pages that have not changed, consuming bandwidth and compute without adding fresh value for either side.

Early Partners Signal The Commercial Model

To launch the new system, Cloudflare is working with Ceramic.ai and You.com. Under the opt-in model, publishers can be paid when their content appears in Ceramic’s AI search results or when You.com accesses premium material.

Cloudflare says other AI companies can adapt the model to fit their own products. The broader message is clear: the era of unrestricted crawling is giving way to one in which access, attribution, and compensation are increasingly negotiated rather than assumed.

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