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Cyprus Banks Exhibit Robust Capitalization and Liquidity in Q3 2025, Says CBC

Strong Capital Base and Improving Asset Quality

The Central Bank of Cyprus has confirmed that local financial institutions continued to demonstrate robust capitalization, high liquidity, and improving asset quality in the third quarter of 2025. This positive development, evidenced by the latest financial soundness indicators, underscores the resilience of the Cyprus banking sector even amid evolving market conditions.

Capital Adequacy and Leverage Stability

In its report, the CBC noted that Cyprus’s credit institutions maintained strong capital positions relative to the previous year. The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio reached an impressive 26.1 percent, buoyed by sustained profitability that has fortified the sector’s solvency over recent years. Furthermore, the leverage ratio remained broadly stable, reinforcing the sector’s robust financial footing.

Marked Improvement in Asset Quality

Asset quality saw significant progress during this period, with the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio declining to 4.5 percent, the lowest figure since 2014. Utilizing the methodology outlined by the European Banking Authority Risk Dashboard, which accounts for loans and advances to central banks and credit institutions, this ratio further dipped to 2.3 percent by the end of September 2025, compared to 2.9 percent in June 2025. These improvements are largely attributed to ongoing efforts by Cyprus credit institutions to deleverage and enhance asset quality.

Credit Risk Mitigation and Profitability Trends

The report also highlights a decline in loans classified as Stage 2 – a category where credit risk is elevated, but defaults have yet to occur – to 5.8 percent of the total loan portfolio, significantly lower than the EU average of 9.4 percent as of June 2025. Increased coverage ratios for non-performing loans further testify to the sector’s ability to absorb potential future losses. Despite pressures from a diminishing interest rate environment, the sector’s profitability remains satisfactory, bolstered primarily by net interest income from a diverse array of assets, including advances, debt securities, and funds held with the European Central Bank.

Liquidity and Balance Sheet Strength

Liquidity conditions across Cyprus banks have remained robust, with liquidity ratios well above the minimum supervisory requirement of 100 percent and surpassing the EU average even amidst increased lending activities. Balance sheet structures continue to be dominated by loans and advances, cash balances with the ECB, and debt instruments on the asset side, while deposits and equity maintain their roles as the primary liabilities.

Conclusion

The latest financial data unequivocally demonstrates that the Cyprus banking sector holds a strong capital base, exhibits high liquidity, and is on a positive trajectory in terms of asset quality. Despite the challenges imposed by a lower interest rate environment, the sector continues to achieve satisfactory profitability levels, reinforcing its position as a pillar of financial stability in the region.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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