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Concerns Rise Over Shareholder Movements At Bank Of Cyprus

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 25, 2024

Recent shareholder activities at the Bank of Cyprus have raised significant concerns within the financial community. At the Cyprus International Business Association Forum in Limassol, it was revealed that major stakeholders CarVal and Caius are contemplating the sale of their 14.65% stake in the bank. Bloomberg’s report on this potential divestiture has sparked a discourse on the future implications for the Cypriot banking sector, which is currently experiencing a period of robust health with strong capital reserves and liquidity.

The potential exit of CarVal and Caius brings to light the broader question of stability and the impact of foreign investment on local financial institutions. Industry experts, including analysts Dimitris Efstathiou and economist Fiona Mullen, have weighed in on the situation. Efstathiou noted that while the sector does not currently require additional capital injections, the entry of new foreign shareholders could catalyse technological innovation within the bank. Mullen echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the need for the banking system to maintain stability and to adapt to potential changes in shareholder dynamics.

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The Bank of Cyprus, like many financial institutions in the region, has navigated through a tumultuous past, marked by economic crises and regulatory changes. The current high liquidity and capital levels are testament to its resilience and strategic management. However, the looming possibility of a major shareholder reshuffle introduces an element of uncertainty that could have far-reaching consequences for the bank’s operational and strategic directions.

The broader Cypriot banking sector could also feel the ripple effects of such a significant transaction. The introduction of new shareholders with different strategic priorities and visions could lead to shifts in business models, potentially affecting everything from customer service approaches to technological investments.

While the Cypriot banking sector enjoys a period of stability, the potential sale of a significant stake in the Bank of Cyprus by CarVal and Caius introduces an element of uncertainty. This development calls for careful monitoring and strategic planning to ensure the continued health and growth of the bank and the wider financial sector. The ability of the Bank of Cyprus to adapt to new ownership structures while maintaining its robust financial health will be crucial in navigating this period of change.

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Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 26, 2026

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

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Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.