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China’s Imports Unexpectedly Fell In June, But Exports Beat Forecasts

China’s imports fell in June, missing expectations for a slight rise, while exports rose more than expected, customs data showed on Friday.

KEY DATA

  • China’s imports fell 2.3% in June from a year earlier in US dollar terms. That contrasted with a forecast for growth of 2.8 percent, according to a Reuters poll.
  • Exports denominated in US dollars for June rose 8.6% year-on-year, beating expectations for growth of 8%.
  • Those numbers boosted year-to-date imports by 2% and exports by 3.6% in the first six months compared to the same period a year earlier.
  • China’s trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations grew 7.1 percent in the first half of the year, cementing the bloc’s position as the country’s largest trading partner by region, followed by the European Union.

ACCENT

China’s imports of rare earth elements, meat, cosmetics and machinery fell sharply in the first half of the year, customs data showed. During this time, however, imports of iron ore and oil increased.

Amid slower domestic growth, Beijing has sought to shore up its supplies of food and essential minerals to bolster national security.

In the first half of the year, China’s exports of furniture, home appliances, ships and automobiles rose. Exports of rare earths fell in value but rose in volume, the data showed.

China’s car exports rose 18 percent in volume last month from the same period last year, customs data showed.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

China’s exports rose 7.6% in May from a year ago in US dollar terms, but imports rose just 1.8% during that time.

Domestic demand remains weak. Consumer prices in China rose 0.2 percent in June from a year earlier, beating expectations, while producer prices met expectations, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

The core consumer price index, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.6% year-on-year in June, slightly slower than the 0.7% increase in the first six months of the year.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics is due to release second-quarter gross domestic product data and economic indicators for June on Monday.

Bitcoin Surges 23% In A Week As Investor Optimism Returns

Bitcoin was on track for a weekly gain of around 23% on Friday as a series of positive macroeconomic and policy developments boosted investor sentiment.

The cryptocurrency was trading about 6% higher at roughly $77,000, up from around $62,800 at the start of the week. Crypto-related stocks also rallied, with Coinbase and Circle gaining more than 9%, while Strategy rose 7%.

Macro Factors Fuel Rally

Bitcoin’s latest surge began Wednesday after Treasury yields fell sharply following a major intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market. Lower yields eased pressure on risk assets and helped trigger a broader move into cryptocurrencies.

The rally was further amplified by a major short squeeze. Around $2.7 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass.

Max Stuedlein, head of Partnerships at Sygnum APAC, said the move reflected an alignment of macroeconomic and policy catalysts, including the Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated government debt.

Clarity Act Boosts Sentiment

Investor confidence improved further on Thursday as the White House and crypto industry leaders made a final push to advance the Clarity Act in the coming weeks.

The legislation is widely viewed as a potential catalyst for the crypto market, although its chances of passing remain relatively limited.

Despite the rally, bitcoin remains well below its 2026 high of $94,820 reached in January and its all-time high of $126,198, set last October.

Analysts See More Volatility Ahead

Lucy Gazmararian, founder and managing partner at Token Bay Capital, said the crypto market may be approaching the end of its bear cycle.

She expects bitcoin could experience one more decline of around 20% before the market turns, pointing to historical cycles and the recent liquidation of heavily leveraged short positions.

Gazmararian also described bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, while warning that its short-term price remains highly volatile and driven by market cycles.

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