China has initiated an investigation into Nvidia, a move widely viewed as retaliation against recent US chip restrictions on the Chinese semiconductor sector. The State Administration for Market Regulation announced the probe on Monday, citing potential violations of China’s anti-monopoly law. The investigation also examines Nvidia’s adherence to commitments made during its acquisition of Israeli chip designer Mellanox Technologies in 2020.

Although the exact nature of the violations remains unclear, the investigation signals a further escalation in the ongoing trade war between the US and China, as both nations compete for dominance in technology. The announcement follows a coordinated statement from four major Chinese industry associations warning local companies to be cautious when purchasing US-made chips, advising them to seek domestic alternatives instead.

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Nvidia’s shares fell by 2.5% following the news. A company spokesperson stated that Nvidia is committed to providing the best products globally and is prepared to address any questions from regulators regarding its business operations.

Impact on Nvidia and the Semiconductor Industry

Bob O’Donnell, Chief Analyst at TECHnalysis Research, suggested that the probe will likely have minimal immediate impact on Nvidia. This is because most of Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips are already restricted from being sold in China due to US sanctions. These sanctions have targeted Nvidia’s A100 and H100 AI chips since 2022, forcing the company to develop modified versions of these products for the Chinese market. However, these versions were also restricted in October 2023, prompting Nvidia to release another set of modified chips specifically for China.

Despite these challenges, Nvidia has maintained a dominant position in the Chinese AI chip market, holding over 90% market share prior to the US sanctions. However, competition from domestic rivals, particularly Huawei, has been increasing. China accounted for about 17% of Nvidia’s revenue in the year ending January 2024, a sharp decline from 26% just two years earlier.

Growing US-China Tensions in the Semiconductor Sector

The investigation into Nvidia comes after the United States imposed its third crackdown on China’s semiconductor industry in three years, curbing exports to 140 companies, including chip equipment manufacturers. In response, China banned the export of key minerals, including gallium, germanium, and antimony, to the US.

Nvidia’s acquisition of Mellanox Technologies in 2020 was approved by China under certain conditions, which aimed to ensure fair and non-discriminatory access to the Chinese market for both Nvidia’s GPU accelerators and Mellanox’s networking equipment. These conditions included providing customers the ability to purchase up to one year’s worth of inventory and prohibiting unfair product bundling or trading terms.

The last time China initiated an anti-monopoly investigation into a major foreign tech company was in 2013 when Qualcomm was scrutinized for overcharging and abusing its market position in wireless communications. Qualcomm later paid a $975 million fine, the largest China had imposed on a company at that time.

As tensions between the US and China continue to rise, the future of global semiconductor supply chains remains uncertain, with companies like Nvidia caught in the crossfire of geopolitical struggles.