China’s economy grew by 5% in 2024, successfully meeting its official growth target of “around 5%” despite ongoing domestic and global hurdles. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, this growth was achieved following a series of stimulus measures introduced late last year, aimed at addressing both internal and external challenges.
A persistent property crisis, now in its fourth year, continues to weigh on the economy, with consumer spending remaining subdued as households prioritize saving amid economic uncertainties. On the global stage, China finds itself at odds with the US on issues ranging from advanced technologies to trade.
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The Chinese government’s efforts, including interest rate cuts, increased liquidity for banks, and a $1.4 trillion debt-swap program for local governments, began showing results in late 2024. Key sectors, such as industrial production, picked up pace as a result. In the final quarter of 2024, China’s GDP surged by 5.4%, exceeding expectations, with President Xi Jinping stressing the importance of hitting the country’s growth target.
Guo Shan, a partner at Hutong Research based in Shanghai, commented, “China’s Q4 data exceeded expectations, positioning the country to meet its annual growth goal.”
Looking ahead to 2025, Guo anticipates that China will aim for another 5% growth target, while Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis, notes that growth momentum might carry into the early part of the year. A strong export performance is expected as companies rush to ship goods abroad in anticipation of new tariffs under the incoming Trump administration.
However, Garcia Herrero also highlights the uncertainty surrounding China’s export outlook, which is complicated by rising geopolitical tensions. To further support the economy, the government may roll out additional fiscal stimulus, possibly allocating 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) for social welfare initiatives and cash handouts to families with children, according to Hutong Research’s Guo.
He adds that Beijing is likely to announce a fiscal deficit target of around 4%, providing more funds for general public spending. “Whichever sector is lagging will likely receive additional support,” Guo says.
