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ChatGPT’s Emerging Role In E-Commerce: Navigating AI’s Growing Influence

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

December 3, 2025

Recent analysis reveals that ChatGPT is increasingly serving as a referral source for e-commerce mobile apps, even as its overall market share remains modest. Research by Apptopia underscores notable growth during this year’s Black Friday shopping weekend.

Insightful Data From The Holiday Season

During the Black Friday period—from Thanksgiving Day through Sunday—referrals from ChatGPT to retailer mobile apps experienced a 28% year-over-year growth, according to Apptopia’s U.S. panel data. Although these figures are estimates based on observed mobile activity rather than first-party data, they offer clear indicators of ChatGPT’s evolving role as a shopping guide.

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Big Retailers Capitalize While Smaller Players Lag

The data further reveals that the advantage gained by industry giants is substantial. Amazon’s share of ChatGPT referrals surged from 40.5% to 54% in 2024, while Walmart saw its share increase from 2.7% to 14.9%. Such trends suggest that large retailers are leveraging AI effectively to enhance visibility and conversion, arguably at the expense of smaller market players.

Defining A Referral And Its Impact

In this context, a referral session is defined as any instance in which a retail mobile app session commences within 30 seconds of a ChatGPT session—whether by receiving a shopping suggestion or by clicking a direct link in the chat. Despite a noticeable uptick from 0.64% last year to 0.82% this year on Black Friday alone, referrals from ChatGPT still represent a small slice of the overall e-commerce referral market.

Complementary Insights From Adobe

Corroborative findings from Adobe further illustrate this surge in AI-driven traffic. Adobe reported an 805% year-over-year increase in AI referrals to U.S. retail sites on Black Friday, with users coming through AI chatbots being 38% more likely to complete a purchase. On Cyber Monday, the increase stood at 670%, and overall AI traffic during the November 1 to December 1 window soared by 760%.

These developments illustrate a transformative period in e-commerce, as AI continues to reshape consumer engagement. For now, while ChatGPT’s footprint in e-commerce referrals is still emerging, its influence appears poised to expand—potentially redefining retail competition in the near future.

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ECB Flags Risks Linked To High-Valuation Technology Stocks

Overview Of The Analysis

An analysis published by the European Central Bank (ECB) examines the factors influencing investor exposure to highly valued equity markets, particularly in the technology and artificial intelligence sectors. Prepared by ECB economists Paolo Alberto Baudino, Federica Bosio, Daniel Dieckelmann, Christoph Kaufmann and Maria Leonor Puga, the study forms part of the institution’s latest financial stability review.

Rising Valuations And Shifting Investor Exposure

According to the report, equity valuations remain elevated, particularly among technology and AI-related companies. Over the past decade, euro area investors have increased their exposure to these markets. While overall equity holdings have doubled during that period, investments in U.S. equities have increased fourfold, supported by rising valuations and continued capital inflows.

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Monetary Policy And Geopolitical Influences

Investment funds remain the largest holders of equities in the euro area and have significant exposure to U.S. stocks. ECB researchers found that these funds are particularly responsive to changes in macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment. Interest rate cuts introduced in the United States from late 2024 supported capital flows into equity markets, while geopolitical uncertainty and weaker risk appetite weighed on investor confidence.

Risk Exposure And Economic Implications

The report also highlights the sensitivity of U.S. technology stocks to changes in monetary policy and economic conditions. A shift in expectations surrounding artificial intelligence adoption or future productivity gains could lead to lower valuations and broader market adjustments, according to the ECB. Such developments could affect investment funds with concentrated exposure to highly valued technology stocks and increase the risk of market volatility.

Policy Considerations And Future Outlook

Growing household participation in financial markets has increased the importance of monitoring these developments. Exposure now extends beyond direct share ownership through investment products such as pension funds and unit-linked insurance schemes. Continued monitoring of capital flows and valuation trends remains important for assessing potential risks to financial stability and the broader economy, the ECB said.