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CEO Confidence In Revenue Growth At 5-Year Low Amid AI And Geopolitical Pressures

Global CEOs are navigating a complex landscape as confidence in revenue growth reaches a five-year low. PwC’s 2026 Global CEO Survey reveals that escalating challenges—from artificial intelligence to geopolitical and cyber threats—are compelling leaders to reassess their financial outlooks and strategic investments.

Declining Confidence In Growth Prospects

Only 30% of CEOs now express confidence in achieving revenue growth over the next 12 months, a sharp decline from 38% in 2025 and 56% in 2022. PwC Cyprus shared these insights, drawn from the responses of 4,454 CEOs across 95 countries. The findings underscore the mounting pressure on businesses to convert investments, notably in artificial intelligence, into sustainable financial returns.

The AI Advantage And Execution Gap

The survey highlights a significant divide in how companies leverage AI. While only 12% of CEOs have witnessed AI deliver both cost and revenue advantages, 33% have seen benefits in just one of these areas, and a majority of 56% reported no significant financial impact. Firms that have embedded AI comprehensively across products, services, demand generation, and strategic decision-making are two to three times more likely to achieve tangible returns. Moreover, organizations that have established robust AI frameworks, such as Responsible AI protocols and enterprise-wide integration, are three times more likely to report meaningful financial outcomes.

Rising External Risks And Cyber Threats

The evolving global environment is intensifying external risks. CEO concern over tariffs has grown markedly, with 20% of leaders globally citing high exposure to financial losses from tariff impacts. Regional variations are stark, notably 35% in Mexico and 28% in the Chinese Mainland, while 22% of US CEOs noted similar vulnerabilities. Concurrently, cyber risk is ascending the priority list, with 31% of CEOs identifying it as a major threat—up from previous years—prompting 84% to enhance enterprise-wide cybersecurity measures.

Strategic Reinvention And Global Expansion

Despite the subdued outlook on revenue growth, many CEOs view reinvention as critical for future success. More than 42% of CEOs have ventured into new sectors in the past five years, and 44% of those planning major acquisitions intend to invest outside their current industries, with technology emerging as the most attractive adjacent sector. International expansion remains a strategic focus, with 51% of CEOs preparing for overseas investments. The United States continues to lead as a top market, followed by key regions such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and an increasing interest in India.

Balancing Urgency With Long-Term Strategy

Time pressures further complicate strategic decision-making. CEOs report spending 47% of their time on short-term issues, compared to just 16% on long-term planning exceeding five years. As Mohamed Kande articulated, “The value at stake across the global economy is increasing, and the window to capture it is narrowing.” This underscores the imperative for companies to commit to bold decisions and invest resolutely in capabilities that drive future growth.

PwC’s survey, conducted from September 30 to November 10, 2025, offers a vital overview of global business sentiment. As external risks evolve and competition intensifies, the companies best positioned for success will be those that adapt quickly while maintaining a clear focus on long-term strategic objectives.

Middle East Conflict Poses Risks To Global IT Spending Growth

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is influencing global technology investment patterns, with research firm IDC reporting that geopolitical developments are increasingly reflected in IT spending trends.

Assessing The Impact

According to IDC’s latest report, technology leaders are focused less on whether investments will be affected and more on the scale, duration and consequences of geopolitical disruptions.

Under the baseline scenario, the conflict would remain contained within a matter of weeks, allowing markets to recover during the second half of the year. In that case, global IT spending is projected to grow by around 10% in 2026, while spending in the Middle East and Africa is expected to increase by approximately 5%, driven largely by device-related expenditures.

Risks And Economic Fallout

IDC warns that continued volatility in energy markets, including recent increases in oil prices, could contribute to broader economic pressures that affect technology spending. A conflict lasting up to three months could reduce global IT market growth by approximately one percentage point, according to the report. Growth in the Middle East and Africa would likely slow further under such a scenario. A longer period of instability could place additional pressure on the sector through higher energy costs and inflation, potentially delaying interest rate reductions and limiting financing conditions for technology projects.

Infrastructure And Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Energy costs remain a key factor influencing technology investment. Data centres, semiconductor manufacturing facilities and global logistics networks require significant energy resources, making them sensitive to changes in oil and gas prices. Disruptions affecting strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could add further pressure to supply chains by increasing freight, insurance and production costs for semiconductors and other technology components.

Strategic Shifts In The Digital Landscape

IDC also notes changes within the cloud computing sector, with some major hyperscale infrastructure regions now operating in areas affected by geopolitical tensions. As a result, organisations are increasingly adopting multi-availability zone architectures and multi-region deployment strategies to improve operational resilience.

The report also points to growing interest in sovereign infrastructure projects across the Middle East as governments continue investing in national cloud platforms and digital sovereignty initiatives. Such projects are expected to place greater emphasis on resilience, redundancy and disaster recovery capabilities.

Resilience Amid Uncertainty

Despite pressure on consumer technology spending from rising costs and inflation, cybersecurity investment is expected to remain relatively stable. IDC notes that increased state-sponsored cyber activity targeting sectors such as energy, finance, telecommunications and cloud infrastructure continues to drive spending on threat detection and response capabilities. AI investment remains another area of focus. While organisations continue to balance infrastructure costs against expected productivity gains, defence analytics and sovereign AI initiatives in Gulf countries could see increased investment.

IDC concludes that subscription-based business models and hyperscale infrastructure continue to support overall resilience in the global IT market. However, a prolonged conflict could reduce global growth projections by approximately one percentage point, highlighting the technology sector’s exposure to energy markets and global supply chains.

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