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Central Bank Revises Growth Forecast Amid Robust Domestic Demand in Cyprus

Revised Economic Projections and Domestic Demand

The Central Bank of Cyprus has slightly downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.1 per cent from its previous estimate of 3.2 per cent, alongside a marked reduction in projected inflation from 2.1 per cent to 1.5 per cent. These adjustments were made before the recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict, meaning any subsequent economic reverberations have not been factored into the current outlook.

Strength in Private Consumption and Investment

Underlying the forecast is a steady rise in domestic demand, powered primarily by increased private consumption due to higher real disposable incomes and a resilient labor market. Large-scale non-residential investments, strategic infrastructure projects supporting digital and green initiatives, and various reforms under the Recovery and Resilience Plan are also expected to bolster consumer spending and overall economic activity.

Inflation and Sectoral Performance

Inflationary pressures are moderating, as reflected in the drop in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices to 1.5 per cent for 2025. This decline is chiefly attributed to easing energy prices and effective monetary policies, although upward pressures are anticipated in the subsequent years due to rising energy and food costs. The role of the technology sector in enhancing net exports and the diversification of financial, professional, and shipping services further underline the economy’s adaptive strengths.

Labor Market Dynamics and Employment Trends

The robust labor market continues to play a key role in supporting the Cypriot economy. With unemployment expected to decline to 4.7 per cent in 2025, a trend corroborated by the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Surveys, the economy is on course towards near full employment in the coming years, even as slight upward revisions in unemployment rates are noted for 2026 and 2027 due to external uncertainties.

Risks and External Uncertainties

Despite the positive domestic trends, downside risks loom amidst volatile energy prices and uncertain global trade dynamics. The potential escalation of regional conflicts and variability in external demand could temper the economic outlook. Conversely, favorable outcomes from tax reforms, robust wage growth, and a diversified export portfolio stand as key upside factors.

In summary, the central bank’s forecast reflects a cautious yet resilient economic framework for Cyprus, driven by strong private demand and strategic investments, while remaining alert to the challenges posed by global geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties.

Apple Surpasses Nvidia As Investors Reassess The True Cost Of The AI Boom

Apple Reclaims Title As World’s Most Valuable Company

Apple has overtaken Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company again, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment as markets reassess the costs and returns of the artificial intelligence boom.

Apple Regains The Top Spot

Apple (AAPL) ended Monday with a market capitalization of $4.95 trillion, surpassing Nvidia (NVDA), whose valuation fell 5% to $4.77 trillion. It was the first time since April 2025 that Apple closed a trading session ahead of the AI chipmaker.

The move comes ahead of Apple’s quarterly earnings report on Thursday, which investors will closely watch for updates on the company’s AI strategy and broader business performance.

Investors Reassess AI Spending

Nvidia’s decline reflects a broader pullback in AI-related semiconductor stocks as investors increasingly scrutinize the returns on heavy infrastructure spending. The company had held the top valuation since June 2025, when it overtook Microsoft, and briefly surpassed a $5 trillion market capitalization in October.

At the same time, investor interest has broadened beyond graphics processing units to other parts of the AI supply chain, including memory and storage technologies that support expanding data center capacity. Companies such as Micron Technology (MU), SK Hynix and Sandisk (SNDK) have benefited from that shift as demand for AI-related memory and storage infrastructure continues to grow.

Apple’s Capital Strategy Draws Attention

Apple shares have gained 24% so far this year, compared with a 4% increase for Nvidia.

Investors have viewed Apple’s more measured AI spending strategy favorably. Rather than investing heavily in its own AI infrastructure, the company has relied more extensively on leased computing capacity, limiting capital expenditure while continuing to expand its AI capabilities.

The contrast comes as markets increasingly focus on how quickly large AI investments can generate sustainable financial returns.

Earnings In Focus

Apple’s earnings report could also provide an update on the impact of the global memory chip shortage, which has emerged as a growing challenge for hardware manufacturers.

The company raised prices for some Mac and iPad models in June, becoming one of the first major consumer technology companies to publicly reflect higher memory component costs.

Investors will be watching whether Apple can sustain its recent market outperformance as AI-related infrastructure costs continue to rise and supply constraints persist.

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