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Central Bank Revises Growth Forecast Amid Robust Domestic Demand in Cyprus

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 21, 2025

Revised Economic Projections and Domestic Demand

The Central Bank of Cyprus has slightly downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.1 per cent from its previous estimate of 3.2 per cent, alongside a marked reduction in projected inflation from 2.1 per cent to 1.5 per cent. These adjustments were made before the recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict, meaning any subsequent economic reverberations have not been factored into the current outlook.

Strength in Private Consumption and Investment

Underlying the forecast is a steady rise in domestic demand, powered primarily by increased private consumption due to higher real disposable incomes and a resilient labor market. Large-scale non-residential investments, strategic infrastructure projects supporting digital and green initiatives, and various reforms under the Recovery and Resilience Plan are also expected to bolster consumer spending and overall economic activity.

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Inflation and Sectoral Performance

Inflationary pressures are moderating, as reflected in the drop in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices to 1.5 per cent for 2025. This decline is chiefly attributed to easing energy prices and effective monetary policies, although upward pressures are anticipated in the subsequent years due to rising energy and food costs. The role of the technology sector in enhancing net exports and the diversification of financial, professional, and shipping services further underline the economy’s adaptive strengths.

Labor Market Dynamics and Employment Trends

The robust labor market continues to play a key role in supporting the Cypriot economy. With unemployment expected to decline to 4.7 per cent in 2025, a trend corroborated by the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Surveys, the economy is on course towards near full employment in the coming years, even as slight upward revisions in unemployment rates are noted for 2026 and 2027 due to external uncertainties.

Risks and External Uncertainties

Despite the positive domestic trends, downside risks loom amidst volatile energy prices and uncertain global trade dynamics. The potential escalation of regional conflicts and variability in external demand could temper the economic outlook. Conversely, favorable outcomes from tax reforms, robust wage growth, and a diversified export portfolio stand as key upside factors.

In summary, the central bank’s forecast reflects a cautious yet resilient economic framework for Cyprus, driven by strong private demand and strategic investments, while remaining alert to the challenges posed by global geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties.

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Cyprus Fuel Prices Jump 20.5% As Energy Costs Rise Across The EU

Cyprus recorded a 20.5% year-on-year increase in the prices of fuels and lubricants for personal transport in May 2026, according to Eurostat data released on Monday.

The increase was broadly in line with the European Union average of 20.7%, with fuel and lubricant prices rising across all EU member states during the period.

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Cyprus Tracks The EU Average

Among EU countries, the largest annual increases were recorded in Bulgaria (33.9%), Luxembourg (32.2%), Lithuania (30.8%) and Romania (30.4%). At the other end of the scale, Hungary registered the smallest increase at 3.5%, while annual growth ranged from 12.7% in Poland to 29.2% in France across the remaining member states.

Eurostat noted that fuel and lubricant prices generally declined across the EU until February 2026 before moving higher in subsequent months.

Diesel And Petrol Follow Different Paths

Across the European Union, diesel prices increased by 29% in May 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier, while petrol prices rose by 16.2%. Monthly trends, however, were more mixed. Between April and May 2026, diesel prices across the EU fell by 5.8%, whereas petrol prices increased by 0.8%.

In Cyprus, diesel prices declined by 1.5% over the same period. Although lower than in April, the decrease was less pronounced than in Germany (-11.9%), Greece (-8.5%), Estonia (-8.4%) and Ireland (-8.1%).

Petrol prices moved in the opposite direction, rising by 2.1% between April and May. A similar pattern was observed across much of the EU, with 23 member states reporting monthly increases. Italy recorded the largest monthly rise in petrol prices at 6.9%, while decreases were reported in Germany (-5.6%), Ireland (-2.0%) and Sweden (-0.7%).