The Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as the conflict in the Middle East continues. Growth is now expected to reach 2.5% in 2026, down 0.2 percentage points from previous projections, while the estimate for 2027 stands at 2.9%. Inflation risks, meanwhile, are expected to remain elevated.

Rising Inflationary Concerns

Updated projections also point to higher inflation. Headline inflation is now forecast at 3.2% in 2026, 0.5 percentage points above earlier estimates. According to the CBC, the increase mainly reflects the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, remains unchanged at 2.3%.

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Sectors Under Strain And Market Dynamics

Sectors linked to international investment, including tourism, shipping, construction, and real estate, could come under pressure from higher oil prices and growing geopolitical uncertainty, the bank said. Further risks stem from possible fuel shortages and supply chain disruptions, which could add to price pressures affecting energy, industrial goods, and food.

Risk Factors And Outlook

Under its baseline scenario, the CBC assumes the conflict will continue until the final quarter of 2026 before gradually easing. Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, while inflation risks continue to point upward. Much will depend on both the duration and intensity of the hostilities.

Among the factors highlighted by the bank are fuel shortages, higher energy and import costs, and pressures linked to climate change. A possible agreement between the United States and Iran would represent a positive development. Uncertainty persists, however, as the deal has yet to be finalized.

Domestic Demand And Resilient Labor Market

Despite the external challenges, rising disposable incomes and private consumption are expected to support domestic demand. Additional support is projected to come from non-residential private investment, although short-term geopolitical developments could affect the timing of some projects. Labour market conditions are expected to remain relatively stable, with only a slight increase in unemployment forecast.