A recent survey by JPMorgan has highlighted tariffs and inflation as the main forces shaping global markets in 2025, with geopolitical tensions also emerging as a key factor. Conducted among 4,233 institutional trading clients, the annual poll showed that 51% of respondents expect tariffs and inflation to be the most significant drivers this year. This marks a sharp increase from the 27% who flagged inflation as a concern in 2024.

In addition to inflation, 41% of traders cited volatility as their primary challenge, up from 28% last year. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a recession impacting market movement has decreased, with only 7% of traders highlighting it as a risk this year, compared to 18% in 2024.

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The poll also shed light on key concerns within the market structure, including access to liquidity, regulatory shifts, and rising costs associated with market data.

The Tariff Showdown

This year’s tariff drama kicked off with President Donald Trump’s announcement of aggressive measures targeting the U.S.’s top three trade partners—Canada, China, and Mexico. These included a 25% tariff on goods from neighboring countries and a 10% additional tariff on Chinese imports. In retaliation, Canada and Mexico prepared to impose reciprocal tariffs, but a diplomatic breakthrough led to a temporary delay in enforcement.

On the other side of the globe, China responded with its new tariffs on American goods, including crude oil and agricultural machinery, escalating trade tensions even further.

Inflation’s Ripple Effect

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee issued a warning this week about the potential inflationary fallout from the tariff policies. He noted that if inflation picks up in 2025, it will be critical for the Fed to differentiate whether the rise is due to economic overheating or a result of tariffs. This distinction, he argued, will play a pivotal role in shaping the Fed’s future policy decisions.

Experts estimate that the average price of new cars could surge by $3,000, and full-sized trucks might see a price hike of up to $10,000, as the U.S. imports 22% of its vehicles from Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, fuel prices are expected to jump by as much as 40 cents per gallon, due to Canada being a major supplier of oil for the U.S., sending about 20% of the nation’s oil consumption. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan predicts these price increases could hit within days of the tariffs coming into play.

After two decades, heavy metal legends Black Sabbath are set to reunite with their original line-up for a one-off concert, Back to the Beginning, which will be held at Villa Park in Birmingham, England, on July 5. The iconic band, featuring Ozzy Osbourne, Tony Iommi, Geezer Butler, and Bill Ward, will perform together for the first time since 2005, marking a significant moment in the history of heavy metal.

The band, known for pioneering the heavy metal genre in the early 1970s, will bring back their legendary sound with classic hits such as “War Pigs,” “Paranoid,” and “Iron Man.” While Black Sabbath has had partial reunions in the years since its last full performance, this concert will feature all the original members of the group, making it a highly anticipated event for fans worldwide.

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Sharon Osbourne, Ozzy’s wife, manager, and TV personality, confirmed that this would be the final performance for the 76-year-old frontman. Although other members of Black Sabbath may continue to make music and perform, the show in Birmingham will mark the end of Ozzy Osbourne’s live performance career. Sharon described this concert as a farewell for Ozzy, stating, “For Ozzy right now, it’s definitely: ‘I love you and good night.'”

Osbourne has been a constant presence in music, continuing to release Grammy-winning albums, despite his Parkinson’s disease diagnosis in 2020. However, his public appearances have become fewer over the years, and this concert is set to be a major moment in his career.

The “Back to the Beginning” concert will also serve a charitable purpose, with profits from the show donated to causes such as Cure Parkinson’s. The event will feature an impressive line-up of rock and heavy metal icons, including Metallica, Slayer, Pantera, Alice in Chains, Lamb Of God, and Anthrax, making it a must-see for metal fans.

Osbourne, who left Black Sabbath in 1979 to pursue a successful solo career, expressed his deep connection to Birmingham, calling it the “true home of metal.” He shared his gratitude for returning to his roots, saying, “How blessed am I to do it with the help of people whom I love.”

Sharon Osbourne added that her husband is doing well and is extremely excited about the upcoming performance, which has given him a renewed sense of energy. Tickets for the concert will go on sale on February 14, and with the promise of a once-in-a-lifetime reunion, it’s sure to be a sell-out event.

In the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and its partners, Elon Musk’s companies—Tesla and SpaceX—have become prime targets. As the owner of the $1.2 trillion electric car company and the $350 billion space venture, Musk’s close ties with the White House have placed both businesses in a precarious position.

The trade war risk became more immediate after a series of proposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods by the U.S. administration. While the initial 25% tariffs were temporarily paused, the situation escalated when Canadian politicians singled out Musk’s companies. Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to cancel a $68 million contract with SpaceX’s Starlink satellite service, while Canadian politician Chrystia Freeland suggested a 100% tariff on Tesla cars. Although these retaliatory measures were paused, they highlighted the leverage that other nations can exert on U.S. companies in such disputes.

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Musk’s companies are vulnerable to this geopolitical pressure. Tesla, with a market valuation 11 times its estimated 2025 revenue, faces potential harm from policy changes, especially since its sales in markets like China and Canada make up a significant portion of its business. The Canadian market, for example, represents about $7 billion in sales—15% of Tesla’s U.S. sales—which could lead to a $78 billion loss in market value if retaliatory tariffs hit. Similarly, SpaceX’s profitability depends on international clients, with Canada accounting for over 10% of its customers, which means that halting these sales could significantly hurt the company’s margins.

Investors may have underestimated the negative impact of political tensions on Musk’s businesses. While Tesla’s market capitalization surged following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the exposure to external factors, such as tariffs or trade wars, could lead to losses. Musk’s role as a political ally to the U.S. government may offer some short-term advantages, but the long-term impact of trade conflicts could be damaging.

In conclusion, while Musk’s companies are seen as valuable assets by investors, their dependence on international markets makes them vulnerable to the unpredictable forces of global trade disputes. The current U.S.-China trade tensions have highlighted how easily trade relations can turn into liabilities for even the most influential business leaders.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further interest rate cuts as inflation moderates, but its board member, Piero Cipollone, expressed concern over the potential impact of the ongoing US-China trade tensions on the eurozone. Cipollone noted that while there is room to lower rates further, higher energy prices and global trade uncertainties, including the US-China trade war, complicate the outlook.

The ECB has already cut rates five times since June, with expectations for at least three more rate cuts in 2024 to support economic recovery. However, Cipollone cautioned that committing to a specific timeline, including a likely rate cut in March, remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks.

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One significant risk identified by Cipollone is the potential fallout from US tariffs on China, which could force China to redirect its manufacturing and dump discounted goods in Europe. This could hurt European growth and pricing, despite the euro’s likely depreciation against the dollar.

Despite these risks, Cipollone emphasized that a recession is not expected, with strong labor markets, consumption, and construction providing support. The eurozone is not experiencing a boom, but growth is expected to continue, bolstered by ECB rate cuts and signs of stabilization in industrial sectors.

Gucci’s design chief, Sabato De Sarno, is stepping down after less than two years in the role, as the luxury brand struggles with declining sales. Kering, Gucci’s parent company, announced on Thursday. De Sarno, who succeeded Alessandro Michele in 2023, faced challenges in reviving the brand with his minimalist designs, which analysts suggest did not resonate with the exuberant image Gucci is known for.

Gucci’s revenues dropped by 25% in Q3, significantly impacting Kering’s overall performance. The brand has been under pressure to attract wealthier consumers and regain its popularity. De Sarno’s departure comes just ahead of Kering’s full-year financial results, and its shares dropped almost 3% in early trade.

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Analysts have pointed out that Gucci’s troubles include overexposure to the Chinese market, reliance on middle-class customers, and a declining brand image. Finding a replacement for De Sarno will be challenging, with potential candidates like Pierpaolo Piccioli and John Galliano under consideration.

As the luxury industry faces slow sales due to weak demand from China and inflation, Gucci’s next steps will be critical in reversing its fortunes.

The Trump administration’s move to cancel the de minimis rule, which allowed low-cost imports worth less than $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free, could hit fast fashion retailer Shein harder than online dollar-store Temu. While both companies have relied heavily on this rule in recent years, Temu has adapted faster to mitigate the impact.

The de minimis rule enabled Chinese retailers like Temu and Shein to ship millions of packages to the U.S. without import duties. However, the Biden administration’s scrutiny of the rule prompted both companies to prepare for its eventual cancellation. Analysts and sellers noted that Temu, owned by PDD Holdings, quickly adjusted its model by expanding its semi-managed approach. This model, similar to Amazon’s, involves bulk shipments to overseas warehouses instead of direct shipments to consumers.

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By the end of 2024, about 20% of Temu’s U.S. sales were shipped from local U.S. warehouses, and by the end of the year, half of its U.S. sales were shipped through warehouses. Temu has also increased its use of ocean freight for larger, more valuable goods, such as furniture, reducing its reliance on de minimis shipments.

In contrast, Shein, known for its ultra-fast fashion, still relies heavily on air freight for rapid delivery, despite opening supply chain hubs in several U.S. states. Shein’s model focuses on speed and trend reactivity, making it less flexible than Temu when it comes to adapting to changes in shipping regulations.

Following Trump’s executive order, the U.S. Postal Service reversed a decision to stop accepting parcels from China and Hong Kong, adding to the confusion in the express shipping industry. Analysts predict that the volume of de minimis shipments to the U.S. could drop by 60%, raising prices for American consumers shopping from Shein, Temu, and Amazon Haul.

Despite these challenges, tech analyst Rui Ma believes that China’s e-commerce operators, including Shein and Temu, will quickly adapt, thanks to their competitive supply chains. While the short-term impact may be significant, Ma does not anticipate catastrophic consequences, as China’s e-commerce sector is highly agile and capable of finding solutions.

The net demand for housing loans in Cyprus rose in the third quarter of 2024, marking the first increase since Q1 2022, according to the Central Bank of Cyprus’ October 2024 Bank Lending Survey (BLS). In contrast, the demand for business loans remained steady for the second consecutive quarter.

The survey found that credit standards for loans to both households and businesses, as well as the terms and conditions for new loans, remained unchanged in Q3 2024. This is the third quarter in a row that lending criteria for housing loans have stayed the same, with underlying factors having a neutral impact on lending standards.

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While housing loan demand saw growth, demand for consumer credit and other types of lending by households remained stable.

The Cyprus property market has made an impressive start to 2025, with property sales contracts increasing by 21% year-on-year in January. According to the Department of Lands & Surveys, all districts showed growth, with Famagusta leading with a 40% rise, followed by Limassol at 36%. Larnaca saw a 20% increase, Nicosia registered a 13% rise, and Paphos experienced a 5% growth.

This surge in property sales reflects growing investor confidence, supported by economic stability, foreign investment, and local demand. Limassol continues to attract business buyers, while Famagusta’s coastal properties gain attention. Larnaca’s infrastructure developments are also driving sales, and Nicosia remains stable as the capital.

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However, MPs have raised concerns about rising property prices driven by foreign buyers, which could affect local buyers, particularly young couples. Foreign property ownership is typically permitted within the EU, but some countries impose restrictions. For example, Spain is considering higher property taxes for non-EU buyers in response to its housing crisis.

Market Segment Breakdown

• Domestic Market: Property sales to Cypriot buyers increased by 27%, accounting for 60% of total sales. Growth was significant in Limassol (+50%), Larnaca (+22%), and Nicosia (+18%).
  
• Overseas Market: Sales to foreign buyers rose by 12%. Famagusta (+74%) and Limassol (+16%) saw notable increases, while Nicosia experienced a 10% decline.
  
• EU Citizens: Sales to EU nationals surged by 44%, with Famagusta showing a remarkable 533% increase from just 3 transactions in January 2024 to 19 in January 2025.
  
• Non-EU Citizens: Sales to non-EU buyers grew modestly by 1%, though some districts saw declines, particularly Nicosia (-27%) and Paphos (-15%).
  

Foreign buyers continue to dominate Paphos, where nearly 75% of property transactions are made by non-Cypriots.

Spanish ministers have agreed to cut the legal working week to 37.5 hours, maintaining current salaries, despite opposition from employers’ associations. The decree, led by Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz, aims to improve productivity and well-being.

The proposal still requires parliamentary approval, where the Socialist-led government faces challenges due to a lack of majority. Díaz’s party, Sumar, made the reduction a condition for supporting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s leadership.

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The CEOs’ association CEOE has voiced concerns, claiming the reduction would raise costs and reduce competitiveness. Díaz and the government had been in talks with unions and employers, but discussions broke down in November. CEOE insists the change should be negotiated at the company level, not imposed by law.

Resistance also comes from Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo, who suggested delaying the change to allow businesses to adapt. While Spain’s strong economic performance and low unemployment provide a favorable context, the central bank has warned of potential inflationary impacts and reduced job creation.

The Cypriot betting sector has shown consistent growth across both land-based and online platforms, continuing its positive trajectory through Q3 2024. The National Betting Authority (NBA) reported a 13% increase in revenue year-on-year, reflecting a robust performance despite changing dynamics in the market.

Revenue Breakdown: Strong Gains In Both Sectors

For the third quarter of 2024, total betting revenue reached €292 million, with €214.6 million generated by online operators (Class B), and €77.3 million coming from land-based operators (Class A). Online betting continues to dominate, with Class B showing a 14% growth compared to Q3 2023, and a notable 24% increase since Q3 2022.

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• Class A Operators: €77.3 million (+9% YoY)
• Class B Operators: €214.6 million (+14% YoY)

Player Winnings: A Significant Increase

Player winnings across both categories rose to €255 million, a 10% increase compared to the same period last year. Notably, the majority of this total (€191.3 million) came from online players, showing continued dominance in digital betting.

• Total Player Winnings: €255.2 million (+10% YoY)
• Class A Winnings: €63.8 million
• Class B Winnings: €191.3 million

Betting Earnings: Online Surge

Betting earnings showed an impressive increase across both land-based and online operators, with a combined total of €36.8 million. The most significant growth was observed in online betting (Class B), which saw a 48% rise year-on-year, compared to the 16% growth of land-based operators (Class A).

• Total Betting Earnings: €36.8 million (+34% YoY)
• Class A Earnings: €13.5 million (+16% YoY)
• Class B Earnings: €23.3 million (+48% YoY)

Trends In Licensed Establishments And Employment

While the number of licensed land-based establishments fell slightly by 3% to 475, the sector remains widespread across Cyprus. The employee count in licensed establishments grew by 3%, reaching 1,518 individuals.

• Licensed Locations: 475 (-3% YoY)
• Employees in Betting Establishments: 1,518 (+3% YoY)

Illegal Betting And Regulatory Actions

The NBA’s commitment to fighting illegal betting continued in Q3 2024, with a 1% increase in the number of blocked illegal websites, bringing the total to over 20,700 sites. This effort reflects growing concerns over the regulation of online gambling in the region.

• New Illegal Betting Sites Blocked: 259 sites (+1% from Q2 2024)
• Total Blocked Sites: 20,733

The betting industry in Cyprus is experiencing sustained growth, driven primarily by online operators. The consistent increase in both revenue and player activity, along with the growing efforts to combat illegal betting, indicates that Cyprus is likely to maintain its upward momentum in the coming quarters.