The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its projections for global oil supply growth, attributing the upward revision to aggressive output enhancements by OPEC+ members and significant production gains from non-OPEC sources. The agency now forecasts an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 2.1 million bpd, and an additional 1.9 million bpd boost the following year. This recalibration comes on the heels of accelerated efforts by not only OPEC but also allied producers, including Russia, as they expedite the relaxation of recent output cut measures.

Reluctant Demand and a Surplus On The Horizon

Despite robust supply increases, demand growth remains subdued. The IEA now expects global oil demand to rise by 680,000 bpd this year and 700,000 bpd next year—figures that not only trail earlier forecasts but also starkly contrast with higher estimates from other industry players. Concerns over anemic consumer confidence and lingering economic uncertainty, driven by tariff challenges, have left market analysts wary. As a result, the agency cautions that the market could face an oversupply scenario, with forecasts suggesting an imbalance of nearly 3 million bpd next year.

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Market Responses And Future Outlook

The immediate market response reflected this bearish sentiment, as oil prices fell below $66 per barrel following the report’s release. Non-OPEC producing nations, especially those in North America and parts of South America, are set to drive supply growth even in the face of additional sanctions on major producers like Russia and Iran. Notably, evolving energy policies in China aimed at bolstering energy security through strategic stockpiling may serve as a buffer to offset some of the surpluses, although the broader market equilibrium remains in jeopardy.

Record Refining Activity And The Road Ahead

In parallel with these supply and demand shifts, the IEA anticipates that global crude oil refining rates will approach record levels, reaching 85.6 million bpd in August after a July peak at 84.9 million bpd. Refinery throughput is projected to climb steadily, with substantial increases expected in market economies under the OECD and within China through to 2026. The dynamics of this expanded refining capacity, juxtaposed with the supply-demand imbalance, underscore the critical need for market adjustments as stakeholders navigate the multifaceted challenges ahead.

Robust Revenue Growth Through Streamlined VAT Collection

Cyprus has demonstrated a significant fiscal boost in 2024 with €257.9 million generated from the European Union’s e-commerce VAT systems, according to Tax Commissioner Sotiris Markides. This impressive performance underscores the effectiveness of the One Stop Shop (OSS) and Import One Stop Shop (IOSS) frameworks in simplifying cross-border tax compliance.

Simplified Procedures for EU and Non-EU Businesses

The OSS system allows Cyprus-registered businesses to streamline VAT declaration and payment on sales to consumers in other EU countries. Companies simply register on the local OSS platform, apply the consumer’s VAT rate, aggregate their submissions quarterly or monthly, and remit a single consolidated payment. Subsequently, Cyprus allocates the appropriate share to each respective EU country. This efficient process extends to non-EU sellers as well, who can have their intra-EU distance sales managed under the Union Scheme.

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Breakdown of VAT Revenue Streams

Last year’s declarations under the various schemes illustrate the system’s broad reach: €217.9 million was collected via the Union Scheme, €36.9 million through the Non-Union Scheme, and €3.1 million via the Import Scheme. While the Union Scheme caters to both EU and non-EU sellers engaging in distance sales, the Non-Union Scheme specifically accommodates non-EU firms delivering services to EU consumers. Furthermore, the Import Scheme targets goods valued at less than €150 that are imported from outside the EU.

Implications and Broader Impact

Implemented in July 2021 as an evolution from the more limited MOSS system, these reforms have not only consolidated tax collection through an expansive OSS but also integrated the IOSS for low-value imports. By designating certain online marketplaces as “deemed suppliers,” the new framework ensures that VAT collection is both efficient and equitable. Across the EU, these mechanisms have generated over €33 billion in VAT revenues in 2024, reflecting a successful effort to simplify tax compliance, reduce administrative burdens, and promote fair taxation across the bloc.

Fiscal Oversight Failure Threatens Public Funds

Cyprus is facing a significant loss in tax revenue as thousands of cases fall outside the statutory timeframe for assessment. According to the latest audit service report, the state risks forfeiting millions in unpaid taxes, undermining fiscal discipline and governmental funding.

Expired Assessments Undermine Revenue Collection

The audit revealed that 139,078 individual tax cases from 2014 to 2017 can no longer be assessed or amended due to lapse in the legal timeframe of the superintendent’s jurisdiction. Corporate liabilities are similarly affected, with an additional 6,070 outstanding taxes from the same period rendered unenforceable. This statutory expiry highlights the critical need for timely audits and due diligence in tax administration.

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Widening Gap in Tax Compliance

The report further indicates that numerous taxpayers with taxable income, yet to file their returns, are not factored into current pending tax assessments. This omission compounds the risk of missed revenue, placing additional pressure on fiscal management and policy enforcement.

Declining Trends In Tax Assessments

In a concerted effort to eliminate arrears, the tax department issued 789,519 assessments in 2024, a decrease from 943,413 in 2023 and 905,967 in 2022. Despite these efforts, between 12,254 assessments for the years 2014–2016 issued in 2023 and 11,428 for 2014–2017 issued in 2024 have lapsed under legal constraints. Such delays predominantly affect legal entities, accentuating the need for a streamlined approach to audit and collection practices.

Call For Enhanced Scrutiny And Prompt Action

Critics argue that many assessments from the past two years were imposed without adequate auditing or income adjustments. With high-risk sectors such as construction and land development, along with businesses suffering prolonged losses, under scrutiny, it is imperative that the tax authority re-evaluates its processes. Prioritizing high-risk cases and ensuring assessments occur within the legal timeframe is vital to safeguarding public funds and bolstering fiscal integrity.

Overview Of 2023 Building Costs

The latest data from the Cyprus Statistical Service (Cystat) indicates that hotels incurred the highest construction costs in Cyprus’ private sector in 2023. Following closely were clinics and medical offices, with tourist apartments ranking third. This analysis draws from an annual building permit survey, highlighting average costs per square metre by dividing total project expenditures by total project area.

Variability In Data And Project Parameters

Cystat’s report cautions that the figures, while informative, are not fully representative of every category. Differences in materials, levels of luxury, and the functional purpose of each project mean that cost comparisons may vary significantly. Moreover, for certain categories where few projects were undertaken, the averages may not adequately reflect the market reality.

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Cost Breakdown Across Sectors

According to the report, the average cost per square metre in 2023 stood at €2,202 for hotels, €1,988 for clinics and medical practices, and €1,775 for tourist apartments. The data continues with restaurants at €1,651, educational institutions at €1,306, houses at €1,214, and apartments at €1,075. Industrial buildings averaged €727 per square metre, warehouses €781, while agricultural buildings were significantly lower at €213. It is important to note that these calculations include fees for architectural, engineering studies, planning and permits, labour, and materials, though they exclude land value.

Market Insight: Projections For 2025

Industry professionals have signalled that the actual cost of constructing a house or apartment is anticipated to rise substantially by 2025. On privately owned land, the realistic figure now hovers around €1,700 per square metre, potentially escalating to approximately €2,500 based on material quality and construction specifics. Analysts emphasize that quoted prices below €1,700 often do not encapsulate the complete scope of work, which invariably includes exterior spaces and ancillary structures.

As the construction market continues to evolve in Cyprus, stakeholders from developers to investors are urged to consider these cost dynamics when planning for future projects.

Suspension of Triangleview Investments Ltd

The Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (Cysec) has taken decisive action by suspending the authorization of Triangleview Investments Ltd. The regulator cited multiple infractions including breaches of anti‐money laundering provisions, inadequate board and management structures, and a failure to meet organizational obligations. The suspension, effective immediately, prevents the firm from offering investment services, entering new business arrangements, or seeking new clients. However, the company is permitted to conclude ongoing transactions and return funds and instruments to its existing client base, provided compliance measures are implemented within a two‐month period.

Administrative Fine for Lydya Financial Ltd

In another enforcement move, Cysec imposed an administrative fine of €100 on Lydya Financial Ltd for non-compliance with the QST-CIF Form submission requirements for the first quarter of 2025. This fine underscores the regulator’s commitment to operational transparency and adherence to prescribed circulars, specifically addressing the obligations under article 56(4) of the Cysec Law.

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Revocation of Previous Rulings for Latnodo Ltd And Cossfort Ltd

On July 21, 2025, Cysec re-evaluated past decisions affecting Latnodo Ltd and Cossfort Ltd, which were initially found to be non-compliant with section 32(3) of the Cysec Law and were subject to earlier administrative penalties. Following a reassessment, the regulator revoked these decisions and removed related announcements from its website, thereby correcting the regulatory record.

Exemption Granted to Albacon Ventures Ltd

In a notable development on August 4, 2025, Cysec granted Albacon Ventures Ltd an exemption from the mandatory public takeover offer requirement in connection with its proposed acquisition of 244,679 ordinary shares in Astarta Holding Plc. The exemption was justified by the fact that the proposed acquisition constitutes less than one percent of Astarta Holding Plc’s total voting rights. Conditions of the exemption stipulate that the acquisition must be finalized within twelve months and that adjustments for any changes in the company’s voting shares will be reflected in the one percent threshold. Furthermore, any subsequent share disposals by Albacon Ventures or its affiliate, Viktor Ivanchyk, will nullify the exemption for additional acquisitions.

Conclusion

These varied regulatory actions highlight Cysec’s rigorous oversight in maintaining market integrity and investor protection. By enforcing compliance measures and recalibrating earlier decisions, the regulator reinforces its commitment to a transparent and robust investment framework in Cyprus.

Strong Import Surge In June

Cyprus experienced a remarkable 21.1 percent increase in total imports in June 2025, reaching €1.11 billion compared to €920.3 million a year earlier. Analyzing the figures, imports from third countries surged to €526.7 million from €366.0 million, underscoring a significant realignment in trade channels. Although the transfer of economic ownership of vessels saw a decline, overall import growth remains robust.

Export Expansion And Persistent Trade Deficit

Parallel to the import uptick, exports advanced by 11.9 percent to €506.5 million in June 2025 from €452.5 million in June 2024, bolstered by improved performance both within the European Union and with third country markets. Yet despite this positive export momentum, Cyprus’ trade deficit widened to €3.87 billion in the first half of 2025, compared to €3.65 billion in the previous year.

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First Half Performance Highlights

For the period spanning January to June 2025, total imports climbed 15.0 percent to €6.50 billion, while total exports surged 31.4 percent to €2.62 billion. This dynamic export growth highlights a period of economic opportunity, even as the widening trade deficit signals ongoing challenges in balancing international trade flows.

May 2025: A Month Of Divergent Trends

In May 2025, a contrasting trend emerged where overall imports decreased by 5.2 percent, registering at €1.01 billion. Domestically produced exports, including stores and provisions for ships and aircraft, rose by 9.5 percent, reflecting sector-specific resilience. However, a decline in domestic agricultural exports and foreign product exports points to the nuanced complexities impacting different segments of the trade ecosystem.

Implications For Strategic Trade Policy

The evolving trade landscape in Cyprus, marked by rapid export growth and escalating imports, demands a strategic review of policy frameworks and business practices. Companies and decision makers must leverage these insights to recalibrate market strategies and address the inherent challenge of a widening trade deficit. The current trends suggest an imperative for adaptive policy measures that foster a balanced growth trajectory in an increasingly interconnected global market.

Vision And Strategy: Embracing Artificial Superintelligence

Masayoshi Son is betting big on a future defined by artificial superintelligence (ASI), a technology he envisions to be 10,000 times smarter than humans within the next decade. This audacious forecast, though bold, is consistent with Son’s established history of making transformative, high-stakes investments—most notably his early $20 million stake in Alibaba which has since generated substantial returns for SoftBank.

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Transformative Investments And Strategic Acquisitions

SoftBank’s aggressive push into the AI domain is evident in its high-profile transactions. The acquisition of Arm in 2016 for approximately $32 billion, now valued at more than $145 billion, underscores the company’s ambition to be a pivotal player in AI-driven infrastructure. More recently, SoftBank announced plans to acquire Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion and has committed significant capital to OpenAI—a move that signals its determination to weave AI deeply into its corporate fabric.

Historical Boldness And The Art Of Timing

Son’s trajectory is defined by visionary risks, as seen in his early musings on ‘brain computers’ and robotics. Even though some ventures, such as the Pepper humanoid robot, did not meet expectations, these experiments laid the groundwork for a broader, long-term strategy. The early adoption of key technologies, despite occasional missteps, highlights SoftBank’s willingness to invest deeply for future payoff—even if market timing has sometimes proved challenging.

Balancing Risks With Reward In A Rapidly Evolving Landscape

Competition in AI is heating up globally, with major tech companies in the U.S. and China jockeying for position in the race towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). While the sector is inherently high-risk due to continuous technological evolutions and unexpected breakthroughs by rivals, SoftBank remains confident in its comprehensive, end-to-end strategy. Its portfolio, spanning semiconductors, software, robotics, and cloud services, is engineered to be resilient in the face of industry disruptions.

A Vision For The Future: Building A Legacy For Centuries

Son’s enduring ambition is nothing short of revolutionary; he envisions an AI-integrated future that will secure SoftBank’s relevance for the next 300 years. This long-term perspective, marked by significant investments and a readiness to make mistakes along the way, continues to fuel the company’s transformation into a cornerstone of the emerging AI ecosystem.

Escalating Global Threats

Cybersecurity challenges are intensifying on the international stage as Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks surge, placing renewed pressure on critical digital infrastructure. A recent report from Qrator Labs indicates that the volume of application-layer DDoS attacks increased by 74 percent globally during the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. These sophisticated attacks mimic legitimate user requests to infiltrate web applications, making mitigation notably complex.

Implications For Cyprus

The escalating global threat comes at a time when Cyprus faces its own cybersecurity challenges. Recent alerts from groups such as the “Tunisian Maskers Cyber Force” have underscored the vulnerability of critical national infrastructure, suggesting that geopolitical or ideological motives may be at play. Historical incidents—including cyberattacks targeting the University of Cyprus, the Land Registry, and the Open University of Cyprus in early 2023—highlight the potential for significant operational and data disruptions.

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Government Response And Strategic Investments

In response to these rising threats, the Cypriot government has recently allocated €8.5 million to enhance national digital defenses. Deputy Minister of Research Nicodemos Damianou has acknowledged that while considerable progress has been made, government entities still operate with fragmented security systems. Notable improvements include cyber defence updates for eleven critical infrastructures following the October 2024 attacks, and the strategic relocation of government servers after the 2023 flooding incident at the finance ministry.

The Rise Of Mega Botnets

Further compounding the threat landscape, Qrator Labs has identified what is being described as the largest-ever DDoS botnet, which now comprises 4.6 million infected devices—a scale nearly 20 times larger than observed in 2024. Andrey Leskin, Chief Technology Officer at Qrator Labs, warns that the sheer volume of malicious requests generated by such botnets can cripple online services, causing severe economic disruptions. He noted that many current DDoS protection solutions may be inadequate to counter an assault of this magnitude.

Preparing For Future Cyber Threats

To mitigate these escalating risks, industry experts advise organisations to refine their incident response strategies, invest in state-of-the-art DDoS mitigation solutions, and frequently test infrastructure resilience against cyber stress. As the digital landscape continues to evolve, proactive and coordinated defenses will be crucial in safeguarding both public and private sectors from the growing tide of cyber threats.

Event Overview And Strategic Importance

The Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Keve), acting as coordinator for the Enterprise Europe Network Cyprus, is set to host a high-profile women’s business delegation from Lithuania on September 24, 2025. This initiative, organized in collaboration with the Klaipeda Chamber of Commerce and Industry, underscores a commitment to strengthening cross-border cooperation and advancing women’s entrepreneurship within the European economic landscape.

Opportunities For Meaningful Networking And Expansion

Held on the first floor of the Keve building in Nicosia, the event will convene a diverse group of entrepreneurs, senior executives, and representatives from professional associations. Participants will have the invaluable opportunity to engage with Lithuanian business leaders, explore potential collaborative ventures, and tap into new market insights pertinent to the Baltic region. The forum is designed to foster robust international partnerships backed by strategic dialogue and market intelligence.

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Enabling Global Business Connectivity

In line with the objectives of the Enterprise Europe Network, the event advocates internationalization, innovation, and networking, specifically targeting small and medium-sized enterprises and women entrepreneurs. The session, conducted in English and scheduled to commence at 10:00 a.m., will offer a detailed agenda to registered participants by early September. In addition, key Lithuanian companies have been listed in the official circular, serving as a testament to the event’s depth and regional relevance.

Call To Action For Interested Parties

Participation is offered free of charge, and those interested are encouraged to register by September 22, 2025. Organizations that champion entrepreneurship and international relations are also invited to join this initiative, which promises to be a catalyst for strategic European collaboration. For further details, interested parties may contact the organizers directly via phone or email.

Market Resilience Amid Rising Demand

The rental market across Cyprus continues to demonstrate remarkable stability, successfully balancing upward demand with an influx of new housing units. This dynamic equilibrium, as highlighted by Marinos Kineyirou, President of the Cyprus Real Estate Agents Registration Council, benefits both tenants and property owners by establishing a dependable and predictable market environment.

Regional Economic Drivers and Their Impact

Kineyirou’s insights reveal that while rental prices remain largely stable, notable disparities persist between regions. In Limassol, for instance, escalating rental costs are attributable to the city’s emergence as an international business hub. The convergence of multinational investments and an influx of highly skilled professionals has fueled demand for premium housing, thereby driving rental figures upward. Conversely, Nicosia’s vibrant student population has spurred a targeted expansion in housing designed to meet academic needs, ensuring moderate price adjustments despite significant demand.

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Data-Driven Insights: Rental and Purchase Prices

The Council president provided detailed pricing data that underscores the region-specific trends. In Paphos and Larnaca, the monthly rental rate for a one-bedroom apartment is recorded at €500, while Limassol leads with prices reaching up to €1,100. When examining purchase prices, Paphos offers opportunities starting at €85,000 for a one-bedroom apartment compared to Limassol’s higher range, with costs peaking at €170,000. Beyond these basic figures, variations in apartment configurations—from one-bedroom to three-bedroom units—offer a comprehensive view of the market’s balanced growth across key urban centers.

Strategic Interventions and Market Adaptability

Strategic investments in student-specific housing have been integral in stabilizing rental levels in both Nicosia and Paphos. The establishment of dormitories alongside university infrastructures has mitigated the risk of rapid price escalations. In contrast, Larnaca, where student demand is less pronounced, continues its development at a steady pace, without the same upward pressure on rental prices experienced in other cities.

Conclusion: A Balanced Outlook for Cyprus Real Estate

Overall, the reported data and expert analysis reveal a market characterized by its adaptability and strategic response to varying regional demands. As economic and business developments, particularly in Limassol, drive heightened rental prices, targeted interventions in educational hubs ensure that the broader market remains balanced and accessible. Cyprus’ ability to maintain stability amidst a surge in demand remains a compelling indicator of its resilient real estate sector.