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BPCE Accelerates Cross-Border Expansion With 75% Stake Acquisition In Novo Banco

French financial powerhouse BPCE has embarked on a bold expansion strategy by acquiring a 75% stake in Portugal’s Novo Banco from US private equity firm Lone Star. Valued at €6.4 billion, this transaction stands as one of Europe’s largest banking deals in recent years, underscoring a broader trend of consolidation within the sector.

Strategic Investment Drives Market Diversification

Set to conclude in the first half of 2026 pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, this acquisition reinforces BPCE’s capability to serve Portuguese families and businesses, while solidifying its influence in the national economy. Novo Banco’s CEO, Mark Bourke, stated in a regulatory filing that the transaction is designed to secure a long-term future built on strength, trust, and shared ambition.

Legacy of Transformation and Resilience

Originally established in 2014 by the Portuguese central bank as the ‘good bank’ following the collapse of Banco Espírito Santo, Novo Banco has navigated significant financial challenges. In 2017, after prolonged privatization efforts by the Portuguese government, Lone Star acquired a 75% stake by injecting €1 billion in capital. Despite facing legacy losses from non-performing loans, Novo Banco reported its first profits in 2021, marking a pivotal turnaround in its financial performance.

Future Growth and Full Ownership Prospects

BPCE has already opened discussions with Portuguese authorities regarding the potential acquisition of the remaining 25% stake held by the state and the resolution fund. This move not only signifies BPCE’s commitment to diversifying its geographic footprint but also positions it to take full control of a major retail banking market, while increasing its exposure to variable rate loans—a common feature in Portugal’s financial landscape.

Industry Consolidation and Cross-Border Expansion

This acquisition is part of an ongoing wave of cross-border banking mergers. Since the muted merger activity following the 2008 financial crisis, leading institutions such as UniCredit, BBVA, and Italy’s MPS have pursued aggressive expansion strategies. Meanwhile, governments are gradually reducing their involvement in nationalized banks, thereby facilitating more dynamic private ownership structures. In parallel, Spain’s BBVA is currently engaged in a high-stakes battle with Banco Sabadell, echoing the transformative forces reshaping the European financial sector.

Why Cyprus Savers Saw Smaller Gains From ECB Rate Hikes

Banks in Cyprus were among the slowest in the euro area to raise deposit rates after the European Central Bank increased interest rates, according to a new ECB working paper examining deposit pricing between 2007 and 2024.

The findings place Cyprus alongside several southern European economies where savers benefited less from higher interest rates than customers in northern Europe, highlighting significant differences in how ECB monetary policy reached households across the currency union.

Deposit Rates Did Not Rise Equally Across Europe

The researchers found that banks in southern euro area countries generally passed on a smaller share of ECB rate increases to depositors than their counterparts in the north.

While monetary policy is set centrally by the ECB, its effects on savers varied widely between countries. The paper concludes that those differences were driven less by banks themselves than by the behaviour of depositors.

Why Banks Could Keep Deposit Rates Lower

According to the study, the biggest shift came after the ECB began raising interest rates in 2022.

Customers most sensitive to higher returns increasingly moved their savings into term deposits, money market funds and other interest-bearing products. Those who kept their money in overnight accounts were generally less likely to switch providers or actively seek higher rates, giving banks greater flexibility in setting deposit prices.

The researchers argue that this change in depositor behaviour played a larger role than differences in banking competition.

The Legacy Of Negative Interest Rates

Years of negative ECB interest rates also shaped how households and businesses managed their savings.

With few attractive alternatives available between 2014 and 2022, most depositors kept money in overnight accounts. Once rates started rising, wealthier households and businesses, which typically respond more quickly to changes in returns, shifted into higher-yield savings products.

Businesses proved more responsive to interest rate changes than households. Among consumers, savers in higher-income northern European countries were also more likely to move funds in search of better returns than those in lower-income southern economies, including Cyprus.

Banks Retained Strong Pricing Power

The study suggests banks maintained substantial pricing power throughout the rate-hiking cycle, allowing them to keep much of the benefit from higher interest rates rather than passing it on to depositors.

Researchers estimate that if all savers had been equally willing to move their money in search of better returns, overnight deposit rates would have been significantly higher, particularly during the ECB’s 2022–2024 tightening cycle.

That finding reinforces the paper’s central conclusion: depositor behaviour, rather than limited banking competition, was the main reason deposit rates rose more slowly than policy rates.

What It Means For Cyprus

For Cyprus, the findings illustrate why deposit rates remained relatively subdued despite one of the fastest monetary tightening cycles in the ECB’s history.

More broadly, the study suggests that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends not only on central bank decisions but also on how willing households and businesses are to actively manage their savings. Improving financial literacy and increasing awareness of alternative savings products, the authors argue, could strengthen competition for deposits and improve the transmission of future interest-rate changes.

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