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BoE Puts UK Banks To The Test: How The 2025 Stress Test Raises the Stakes

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

On March 24, 2025, the Bank of England (BoE) kicked off its latest Bank Capital Stress Test, a rigorous examination of the UK banking system’s resilience in extreme economic shocks. This year’s test doesn’t just gauge stability—it pushes financial institutions to prove they can weather deep global recessions, plummeting asset prices, soaring interest rates, and mounting misconduct costs.

A New Era Of Stress Testing

The BoE reshaped its approach to stress testing in December 2024, moving from an annual model to a biennial framework. The 2025 test replaces the previous cyclical scenario assessments, last conducted in 2022/23, and introduces a more comprehensive methodology to ensure UK banks can withstand worst-case scenarios.

What’s In The 2025 Stress Test?

The test targets the UK’s seven largest and most systemically important banks and building societies, subjecting them to a severe but plausible tail-risk scenario designed to expose vulnerabilities across multiple economic shocks. Key elements include:

  • Five-Year Horizon: The scenario spans from December 2024 onward, pushing banks to forecast potential risks over the medium term.
  • No Full Baseline Projections: Instead of submitting full baseline projections, banks will rely on their corporate plans in select areas to ensure credible stress-test outcomes.
  • Integration with Financial Stability Framework: The test feeds into the BoE’s broader financial stability assessments, influencing capital buffer requirements.

Guidance For Participants

To ensure clarity, the BoE has issued detailed guidance covering critical aspects of the test, including:

  • The list of participating banks.
  • Capital and leverage ratio definitions.
  • Submission requirements and timeline.
  • The macroeconomic scenario framework.
  • Risk modeling methodologies.
  • Mandatory distribution restrictions and capital actions.
  • Qualitative reviews and assessment criteria.

What’s Next?

The BoE is set to publish the results in Q4 2025, and the findings will play a key role in shaping capital requirements and regulatory decisions. As banks brace for the toughest test yet, the outcome will reveal whether the UK financial system is prepared for the next economic storm—or if cracks are already forming.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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