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Assessing The Divergent Energy Futures: The European Union Versus Cyprus

European Electricity Transition: A Bold New Horizon

A recent report, European Electricity Review 2026, published by Think Tank Ember, highlights a stark disparity between the energy strategies of the European Union and Cyprus. While the EU is rapidly advancing its renewable energy agenda, underpinned by an aggressive shift away from fossil fuels, Cyprus remains reliant on an increasingly costly and pollutant electricity system dominated by conventional fossil fuel sources.

European Union Electricity Mix 2025

The EU’s electricity landscape continues to shift toward renewables at a notable pace. Wind and solar energy now play a central role in the bloc’s power generation, gradually overtaking fossil fuels.

According to projections for 2025, wind contributes 16.9% of electricity production and solar 13.2%, bringing their combined share to 30.1%, slightly ahead of fossil fuels at 29%. Hydropower remains significant at 17.6%, although drought conditions have constrained its output in several regions. In total, renewable sources account for 47.7% of the EU electricity mix, marking a historic milestone in the region’s green transition. Nuclear energy remains stable at around 23%, continuing to provide a consistent base load.

Technology/Source Percentage (%) Observations
Wind 16.9 Steady increase since 2015
Solar 13.2 Rapid development in recent years
Wind + Solar 30.1 Surpassed fossil fuels (29%)
Hydroelectric 17.6 Impacted by drought
Total Renewables 47.7 Driving the green transition
Coal 9.2 Marked decrease, nearing obsolescence
Natural Gas 16.7 Gradual decline, with a spike in 2025 due to reduced hydroelectric output
Other Fossil Fuels 3.1 Gradual decrease
Total Fossils 29.0 Substantial reduction
Nuclear 23.3 Maintained at steady levels

Cyprus’ Energy Conundrum In 2025

Cyprus presents a very different picture. Approximately 74% of its electricity generation still comes from oil and heavy fuel oil through traditional thermal units. Although the country has achieved strong photovoltaic growth, reaching 21% solar penetration, this progress is limited by insufficient grid modernization and the lack of large-scale storage capacity.

Despite being among EU leaders in solar installations for each person, Cyprus faces curtailment issues where excess renewable energy cannot be absorbed by the grid. Estimates suggest that up to 22% of renewable generation is occasionally curtailed, representing roughly 6–7% of annual electricity demand.

Energy Source Percentage (%) Observations
Oil/Heavy Fuel Oil 74 Dominant conventional thermal units
Solar 21 Robust photovoltaic growth without supportive storage
Wind 4 Minimal contribution
Other Renewables (Biomass) 1 Limited deployment
Total Renewables 26 A modest increase with potential for further expansion

Consequences For Electricity Pricing

The inefficiencies in managing renewable integration and the persisting reliance on fossil fuels have had a direct impact on electricity prices in Cyprus. Although temporary measures, such as a 10% VAT reduction through 2027, have been implemented, the cost per kilowatt-hour for 2025 is forecast at 31 cents —significantly above the EU average of 24.6 cents. This pricing imbalance erodes consumer purchasing power and undermines the competitiveness of the local economy.

Strategic Recommendations For Reform

A decisive recalibration of Cyprus’ electricity sector is essential to bridge the gap with its European counterparts. Key strategic recommendations include:

  1. Establishment Of An Independent Coordination Authority: Create an autonomous body dedicated to aligning the efforts of relevant agencies to reduce electricity costs and secure a reliable energy supply.
  2. Development Of A Long-Term Electric Generation Strategy: Formulate a strategic plan that balances the rational expansion of renewable energy with conventional sources, incorporating integrated energy storage solutions and robust system management protocols.
  3. Prioritization Of Centralized Energy Storage And Grid Adaptation: Emphasize the need for centralized energy storage facilities and the reinforcement of distribution networks to stabilize the supply and effectively absorb surplus renewable generation.

Conclusion

Cyprus stands at a critical crossroads. To achieve affordable electricity and remain competitive, decisive reform and strategic investment in renewable infrastructure are imperative. Failure to act could exacerbate both economic and social challenges, further distancing Cyprus from the progressive energy blueprint exemplified by the European Union.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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