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Apple Set To Eclipse Samsung In Global Smartphone Shipments In 2025

According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is poised to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025 – a milestone not seen in 14 years. With forecast shipments of approximately 243 million iPhone units compared to Samsung’s 235 million, Apple’s market share is expected to reach 19.4% while Samsung holds 18.7%. Although these shipments reflect distribution to retail channels rather than direct sales, they serve as a vital indicator of underlying consumer demand.

Market Momentum Driven By The iPhone 17 Series

The success of Apple’s iPhone 17 series, launched in September, has been instrumental in shifting market dynamics. Reports indicate that the series enjoyed a notably robust holiday season, with U.S. sales surging by 12% over the previous generation – excluding the iPhone 16e – and an 18% increase in sales in the critical Chinese market. This reception underscores the strength of Apple’s product lineup and affirms its competitive edge.

Strategic Industry Tailwinds And Evolving Consumer Cycles

Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang cites the replacement cycle as a key factor behind Apple’s boosted shipment outlook. As consumers who invested in smartphones during the COVID-19 era approach their upgrade phase, demand for the latest models is expected to rise. Furthermore, Samsung may encounter headwinds in the low- to mid-tier segment, particularly from aggressive Chinese manufacturers, potentially hindering its ability to reclaim market leadership.

Long-Term Growth And Product Expansion

Looking ahead, Counterpoint Research projects Apple to maintain its dominance in the global smartphone market through 2029. A significant secondary market exists, exemplified by the sale of 358 million second-hand iPhones between 2023 and mid-2025, which continues to feed demand as consumers upgrade. Apple’s advantage is reinforced by favorable factors including reduced tariff impacts from the U.S.-China trade truce, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a resilient global economic outlook. These elements have collectively bolstered consumer confidence and supported Apple’s growing footprint in emerging markets.

Apple is also expected to diversify its product offerings by launching the entry-level iPhone 17e and venturing into the foldable smartphone arena in the coming year. In addition, upgrades to Apple’s virtual assistant Siri and a major design overhaul scheduled for 2027 are anticipated to fortify the tech giant’s market position. This multi-tiered strategy is not only designed to capture aspirational consumers in emerging markets but also to consolidate Apple’s lead in the premium segment.

Projected Market Leadership Through 2029

With an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem and a substantial installed base due for renewal, Apple is strategically positioned to outpace other smartphone OEMs well into the next decade. The company’s ability to innovate across various price points and segments ensures that its appeal remains robust, thereby cementing its market leadership in global smartphone shipments.

NERDs Replace FIRE As Young Workers Lose Confidence In Retirement

The FIRE movement promised younger workers a path to financial independence and early retirement. Now, a different group is emerging in the UK: NERDs, or the “Never Ever Retiring Demographic.”

Growing pessimism among Gen Z and millennials is driving the shift, with many questioning whether retirement will ever be financially achievable. Some are responding by reducing or abandoning pension contributions altogether.

Young Workers Are Losing Confidence In Retirement

Research from People’s Pension, a major UK workplace pension provider, found that 47% of Gen Z respondents aged 18 to 27 do not engage with their pension. Another 12%, equivalent to about 2.2 million young people, have stopped saving for retirement because they expect to work indefinitely.

Wider financial pressures are contributing to that outlook. High living costs have pushed milestones such as homeownership, marriage, having children and retirement further away for many younger workers, while inflation, layoffs and stagnant wages have added to uncertainty.

Pension Providers Face A Communication Gap

Financial pressure is only part of the problem. Young workers also say pension providers are failing to explain long-term saving in ways that feel relevant to them.

About 36% of respondents said providers do not explain retirement saving effectively. Among them, 27% said companies appear more focused on selling products than educating customers, while 16% cited complicated language and jargon.

A clear generational difference emerges in the responses. Some 29% of Gen Z respondents said providers fail to explain why pension saving matters, compared with 13% of Gen Xers and Baby Boomers. Similarly, 17% of Gen Z said providers do not use channels they engage with, versus 4% among older generations.

Clearer information could influence behavior. About 70% of Gen Z respondents said they would have started saving earlier if they had known that beginning in their 20s could potentially double their retirement pot compared with starting in their 30s. Another 63% said learning about tax relief and employer contributions motivated them to save.

“In a world where financial doom dominates pension conversations, young savers are tuning out,” said Kirsty Ross, proposition director at People’s Pension. “Our research shows they are not disengaged because they don’t care, they are disengaged because the messages aren’t working.”

Young Savers Want Simpler Tools

Progress bars and goal trackers were among the most popular tools respondents said could make pensions more relevant, cited by 31%. Another 26% wanted reassurance that they could start with small amounts, while 23% wanted examples of what people their age are doing.

Clear, bite-sized steps were cited by 22%, while 19% said light-hearted and relatable stories could make pensions more accessible.

People’s Pension has responded with Pension Drop, a campaign using social media influencers, live events and lifestyle personalities to encourage conversations about retirement saving.

“Looking back, I really wish I’d started earlier,” said Iain Stirling, comedian, TV presenter and Pension Drop ambassador. He said contributions made in someone’s 20s or 30s can make a significant difference later, while employer contributions and tax relief can increase the value of smaller payments.

Small Changes Can Improve Long-Term Saving

Stirling urged younger workers to check their pension provider, establish whether they have multiple pension pots and make sure they are contributing enough to receive the full employer match.

He also recommended increasing contributions after a pay rise or bonus, allowing workers to raise long-term savings without making a large immediate change to their spending.

For younger workers facing high living costs and uncertain career prospects, pension saving remains a difficult sell. Clearer information about employer contributions, tax relief and the long-term effect of starting early could help make retirement planning more tangible.

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