The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday, but the decision was not unanimous. In a 6-3 vote, the Monetary Policy Committee kept rates unchanged, while three members backed a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. Renewed energy price pressures have added to concerns that inflation could remain elevated.
Inflation Pressures Remain
Policymakers said inflation “is likely to rise further over coming quarters,” citing higher and more volatile crude oil and refined energy prices since the conflict began.
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So far, there has been “little evidence” of significant second-round effects, such as broader wage and price increases. Inflation risks, however, are now “tilted to the upside” and have increased since the July Monetary Policy Report.
Energy Prices Add To Inflation Risks
Brent crude has risen 36% since July, reaching $106 a barrel on Sept. 14, while UK wholesale gas prices increased 78% to 207 pence per therm.
Higher energy costs can feed into transport, production and household expenses, raising costs across supply chains. Refinery pressures have also pushed crack spreads, the difference between refined fuel and crude prices, well above pre-conflict levels.
Economy Shows Resilience
Despite the inflation risks, UK economic activity has held up slightly better than the Bank expected. A softer labor market and higher borrowing costs are expected to help reduce inflation over time.
Previous monetary tightening is still working through the economy, according to policymakers. So far, the latest energy shock has not produced clear evidence of a broader wage-price spiral.
Major Central Banks Take Different Paths
The decision comes during a busy period for global monetary policy. The Federal Reserve raised rates Wednesday to 3.75%-4% in its first increase since 2023, while the European Central Bank recently lifted its deposit rate to 2.5%.
The Bank of Japan is due to announce its decision Friday, with markets expecting a rate increase. Thursday’s split vote shows that pressure for tighter policy remains within the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.
