A new study by Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy reveals that Europe could secure its defense without relying on U.S. support—but only with a significant financial and strategic overhaul. According to the research, the bloc needs to invest roughly €250 billion ($261.6 billion) annually in defense, representing about 1.5% of its GDP, to mount an effective stand against potential threats like Russia. Such spending could mobilize around 300,000 soldiers, strengthening Europe’s ability to deter aggression.
However, the report also highlights a critical hurdle: while European nations have the economic muscle, their defense strategies remain fragmented. Enhanced coordination and joint procurement efforts are essential if Europe is to unify its national armed forces and optimize resource allocation.
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The study comes at a time when pressure from U.S. political figures has been mounting. U.S. President Donald Trump has openly urged European states to bolster their military capabilities, with his defense minister recently warning against allowing America to shoulder the entire burden of European security. Adding to the debate, German Chancellor frontrunner Friedrich Merz recently questioned Washington’s long-term commitment to NATO, while U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz set a June deadline for NATO members to achieve a 2% GDP defense spending target. In this light, the report even suggests that Europe should consider ramping up its defense expenditure to 4% of GDP. The authors propose that half of this additional investment could be financed through common European debt, dedicated to joint procurement, with the remainder covered by national budgets.
Europe stands at a crossroads: with the right blend of investment and coordination, it can transition to a more self-reliant defense posture. However, achieving this will require not only a financial commitment but also a unified strategy among its diverse member states.
