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Investors Eye Middle East Amid Political Shift, But Trump’s Gaza Plan Sparks Uncertainty

A historic transformation is reshaping the Middle East, drawing international investors back into the region with hopes of stability and economic recovery. While a fragile ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict and leadership changes in Syria and Lebanon signal potential progress, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to take control of Gaza has introduced fresh concerns.

Renewed Investor Confidence

Egypt, a central player in recent peace talks and the region’s most populous nation, recently conducted its first dollar debt sale in four years—an impressive turnaround from its near-economic collapse. Israel and Lebanon have also seen a resurgence in investor interest, particularly in bonds, as the market bets on a long-term resolution to Lebanon’s financial and political turmoil.

Charlie Robertson, an emerging markets expert at FIM Partners, notes that recent geopolitical shifts have fundamentally altered the region’s dynamics, offering the possibility of sustained stability—so long as Trump’s Gaza proposal doesn’t reignite tensions.

Market Reactions To Trump’s Proposal

Trump’s call to “clean out” Gaza and turn it into a “Riviera of the Middle East” has met with strong international backlash. In response, Egypt has scheduled an emergency Arab summit for February 27 to discuss the implications for Palestinians and regional stability.

Investors are closely watching how this unfolds. S&P Global has indicated it may lift Israel’s downgrade warning if the ceasefire holds, potentially paving the way for a significant Israeli debt sale. However, investors remain wary of political volatility.

Israel’s Economic Outlook

While bond investors are returning, Israel’s stock market has struggled since the ceasefire. The country had been one of the strongest performers globally after the October 2023 attacks but has since dipped, aligning with a broader U.S. tech selloff.

Sabina Levy, head of research at Leader Capital Markets, highlights that markets are more concerned with internal political conflicts than the war itself. Meanwhile, Economy Minister Nir Barkat is pushing for aggressive economic growth strategies.

Lebanon And Egypt: Uncertainty Amid Opportunity

Lebanon’s debt-laden economy is showing signs of life as its bonds have surged in value. The country’s new president, Joseph Aoun, is turning to Saudi Arabia for support, which could further distance Lebanon from Iranian influence. However, a $45 billion debt restructuring remains a significant hurdle.

Meanwhile, Egypt faces pressure from the U.S. as Trump’s plan envisions Cairo accepting two million Palestinian refugees. Analysts warn that Washington could leverage Egypt’s reliance on foreign aid to push its agenda, posing risks to the country’s financial stability.

The Path Ahead

As investors navigate the evolving landscape, key concerns include continued Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, Lebanon’s economic restructuring, and Israel’s political stability. While the region presents opportunities, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s influence keeps markets on edge.

Assessing The Divergent Energy Futures: The European Union Versus Cyprus

European Electricity Transition: A Bold New Horizon

A recent report, European Electricity Review 2026, published by Think Tank Ember, highlights a stark disparity between the energy strategies of the European Union and Cyprus. While the EU is rapidly advancing its renewable energy agenda, underpinned by an aggressive shift away from fossil fuels, Cyprus remains reliant on an increasingly costly and pollutant electricity system dominated by conventional fossil fuel sources.

European Union Electricity Mix 2025

The EU’s electricity landscape continues to shift toward renewables at a notable pace. Wind and solar energy now play a central role in the bloc’s power generation, gradually overtaking fossil fuels.

According to projections for 2025, wind contributes 16.9% of electricity production and solar 13.2%, bringing their combined share to 30.1%, slightly ahead of fossil fuels at 29%. Hydropower remains significant at 17.6%, although drought conditions have constrained its output in several regions. In total, renewable sources account for 47.7% of the EU electricity mix, marking a historic milestone in the region’s green transition. Nuclear energy remains stable at around 23%, continuing to provide a consistent base load.

Technology/Source Percentage (%) Observations
Wind 16.9 Steady increase since 2015
Solar 13.2 Rapid development in recent years
Wind + Solar 30.1 Surpassed fossil fuels (29%)
Hydroelectric 17.6 Impacted by drought
Total Renewables 47.7 Driving the green transition
Coal 9.2 Marked decrease, nearing obsolescence
Natural Gas 16.7 Gradual decline, with a spike in 2025 due to reduced hydroelectric output
Other Fossil Fuels 3.1 Gradual decrease
Total Fossils 29.0 Substantial reduction
Nuclear 23.3 Maintained at steady levels

Cyprus’ Energy Conundrum In 2025

Cyprus presents a very different picture. Approximately 74% of its electricity generation still comes from oil and heavy fuel oil through traditional thermal units. Although the country has achieved strong photovoltaic growth, reaching 21% solar penetration, this progress is limited by insufficient grid modernization and the lack of large-scale storage capacity.

Despite being among EU leaders in solar installations for each person, Cyprus faces curtailment issues where excess renewable energy cannot be absorbed by the grid. Estimates suggest that up to 22% of renewable generation is occasionally curtailed, representing roughly 6–7% of annual electricity demand.

Energy Source Percentage (%) Observations
Oil/Heavy Fuel Oil 74 Dominant conventional thermal units
Solar 21 Robust photovoltaic growth without supportive storage
Wind 4 Minimal contribution
Other Renewables (Biomass) 1 Limited deployment
Total Renewables 26 A modest increase with potential for further expansion

Consequences For Electricity Pricing

The inefficiencies in managing renewable integration and the persisting reliance on fossil fuels have had a direct impact on electricity prices in Cyprus. Although temporary measures, such as a 10% VAT reduction through 2027, have been implemented, the cost per kilowatt-hour for 2025 is forecast at 31 cents —significantly above the EU average of 24.6 cents. This pricing imbalance erodes consumer purchasing power and undermines the competitiveness of the local economy.

Strategic Recommendations For Reform

A decisive recalibration of Cyprus’ electricity sector is essential to bridge the gap with its European counterparts. Key strategic recommendations include:

  1. Establishment Of An Independent Coordination Authority: Create an autonomous body dedicated to aligning the efforts of relevant agencies to reduce electricity costs and secure a reliable energy supply.
  2. Development Of A Long-Term Electric Generation Strategy: Formulate a strategic plan that balances the rational expansion of renewable energy with conventional sources, incorporating integrated energy storage solutions and robust system management protocols.
  3. Prioritization Of Centralized Energy Storage And Grid Adaptation: Emphasize the need for centralized energy storage facilities and the reinforcement of distribution networks to stabilize the supply and effectively absorb surplus renewable generation.

Conclusion

Cyprus stands at a critical crossroads. To achieve affordable electricity and remain competitive, decisive reform and strategic investment in renewable infrastructure are imperative. Failure to act could exacerbate both economic and social challenges, further distancing Cyprus from the progressive energy blueprint exemplified by the European Union.

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