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DBRS: Greek Banks Face Revenue Challenges But Strong Economic Outlook

Greek banks face a competitive disadvantage in terms of revenue generation, with a less diversified structure compared to their European counterparts. DBRS Morningstar reports that net supplies revenue in Greek banks represents only 17% of total operating revenue in 2024, compared to 22% in Europe. This lag is largely due to the global financial crisis and the Greek debt crisis, which significantly reduced household savings.

Despite these challenges, Greece’s economy has outperformed the Eurozone, and this trend is expected to continue. Strong private consumption, exports, and investment contributed to a 2.3% growth in 2023, with GDP projected to grow by more than 2% in 2024. The labor market has also improved, with unemployment at 9.6% in November 2024, down from a peak of 27.8% in 2013.

Greek banks have benefited from higher interest rates, particularly due to a large portion of their loans being at floating rates. However, as net interest income (NII) faces pressure from expected rate reductions, Greek banks need to diversify their revenue streams further. The government’s plan to reduce banking supplies for retail customers by 2025, which includes cuts to ATM and money transfer services, could slow the pace of growth in net supplies revenue.

In response, Greek banks are focusing on improving revenue from supplies, both organically and through external partnerships and acquisitions. Net supplies increased to 17% of total operating revenue in 2024, up from 15% in 2019. These efforts, combined with the ongoing economic recovery, should help narrow the revenue gap with European banks.

Despite challenges like NII compression, higher operational costs, and potential credit risk increases, DBRS expects Greek banks to maintain adequate profitability. Continued economic growth, especially through EU funding and structural reforms, will support this outlook. However, geopolitical risks, such as trade barriers, could impact future growth prospects.

Looking ahead, DBRS believes that the ongoing strategic initiatives by Greek banks and the country’s robust economic performance will help mitigate the impacts of lower interest rates, allowing for continued growth in private savings and investments.

Cyprus Income Distribution 2024: An In-Depth Breakdown of Economic Classes

New findings from the Cyprus Statistical Service offer a comprehensive analysis of the nation’s income stratification in 2024. The report, titled Population By Income Class, provides critical insights into the proportions of the population that fall within the middle, upper, and lower income brackets, as well as those at risk of poverty.

Income Distribution Overview

The data for 2024 show that 64.6% of the population falls within the middle income class – a modest increase from 63% in 2011. However, it is noteworthy that the range for this class begins at a comparatively low threshold of €15,501. Meanwhile, 27.8% of the population continues to reside in the lower income bracket (a figure largely unchanged from 27.7% in 2011), with nearly 14.6% of these individuals identified as at risk of poverty. The upper income class accounted for 7.6% of the population, a slight decline from 9.1% in 2011.

Income Brackets And Their Thresholds

According to the report, the median equivalent disposable national income reached €20,666 in 2024. The upper limit of the lower income class was established at €15,500, and the threshold for poverty risk was set at €12,400. The middle income category spans from €15,501 to €41,332, while any household earning over €41,333 is classified in the upper income class. The median equivalents for each group were reported at €12,271 for the lower, €23,517 for the middle, and €51,316 for the upper income classes.

Methodological Insights And Comparative Findings

Employing the methodology recommended by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the report defines the middle income class as households earning between 75% and 200% of the national median income. In contrast, incomes exceeding 200% of the median classify households as upper income, while those earning below 75% fall into the lower income category.

Detailed Findings Across Income Segments

  • Upper Income Class: Comprising 73,055 individuals (7.6% of the population), this group had a median equivalent disposable income of €51,136. Notably, the share of individuals in this category has contracted since 2011.
  • Upper Middle Income Segment: This subgroup includes 112,694 people (11.7% of the population) with a median income of €34,961. Combined with the upper income class, they represent 185,749 individuals.
  • Middle Income Group: Encompassing 30.3% of the population (approximately 294,624 individuals), this segment reports a median disposable income of €24,975.
  • Lower Middle And Lower Income Classes: The lower middle income category includes 22.2% of the population (211,768 individuals) with a median income of €17,800, while the lower income class accounts for 27.8% (267,557 individuals) with a median income of €12,271.

Payment Behaviors And Economic Implications

The report also examines how income levels influence repayment behavior for primary residence loans or rental payments. Historically, households in the lower income class have experienced the greatest delays. In 2024, 27.0% of those in the lower income bracket were late on payments—a significant improvement from 34.6% in 2011. For the middle income class, late payments were observed in 9.9% of cases, down from 21.4% in 2011. Among the upper income class, only 3% experienced delays, compared to 9.9% previously.

This detailed analysis underscores shifts in income distribution and repayment behavior across Cyprus, reflecting broader economic trends that are critical for policymakers and investors to consider as they navigate the evolving financial landscape.

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