Global arabica coffee prices surged past $3.60 per pound on Wednesday, hitting record highs as Brazil—the world’s largest producer—faces dwindling supply and uncertainty over its upcoming harvest.
According to market dealers, 70% to 80% of Brazil’s current arabica crop has already been sold, slowing new trades. The country supplies nearly half of the world’s arabica beans, a premium variety favored in high-quality roast and ground coffee blends. Although weather conditions have improved following last year’s severe drought, Brazil’s next crop is projected to be 4.4% smaller than the previous one, as per data from the Brazilian food supply agency Conab.
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“Global coffee availability remains constrained,” noted HedgePoint Global Markets on Wednesday. “Sales of Vietnam’s robusta crop are progressing sluggishly, Central American and Colombian arabica beans are taking longer to reach the market, and Brazilian farmers are reluctant to offload additional stock.”
The ripple effects of Brazil’s supply strain are being felt across the coffee market. Arabica futures on the ICE exchange, a global benchmark for coffee pricing, briefly hit an all-time high of $3.6945 per pound before settling at $3.6655—marking a 2.5% increase on the day and a nearly 15% gain for the year. Meanwhile, robusta coffee, a lower-cost variety primarily used for instant coffee, climbed 0.9% to $5,609 per metric ton.
Adding to the market’s tightness, coffee exports from India—the world’s fifth-largest robusta producer—are expected to decline by over 10% in 2025 due to lower yields and reduced carryover stock from last season. Farmers in both India and Vietnam, the top robusta producer, are reportedly holding back sales, betting on further price increases. In Brazil, an estimated 80% to 90% of the current crop has already been sold, according to traders.
A report from brokerage firm Sucden highlights another pressing issue: Brazilian coffee growers are prioritizing domestic sales over dollar-denominated exports, despite higher international prices. This shift comes as local farmers’ financial positions have improved significantly in recent years. Moreover, Brazil’s coffee buffer stocks have plummeted to an estimated 500,000 bags—down sharply from the traditional 8 million—leaving the global market particularly vulnerable to any additional weather disruptions.
Sucden anticipates that the coffee market will log its fourth consecutive annual supply deficit this season, adding further upward pressure on prices.
Beyond coffee, other soft commodities saw notable movements. Raw sugar climbed 1.1% to 19.45 cents per pound, rebounding from a five-month low, while white sugar gained 2.2% to $522.90 per ton. Meanwhile, New York cocoa futures spiked 3.3% to $11,745 per ton, with London cocoa rising 1.6% to 9,138 pounds per ton.
