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EY’s 2025 Geostrategic Outlook: Key Developments Shaping The Global Landscape

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 28, 2025

As we step into 2025, the geopolitical landscape is brimming with uncertainty, marked by political, economic, and demographic shifts that will impact businesses worldwide. According to the latest Geostrategic Outlook from EY-Parthenon, 2025 will see pivotal geopolitical developments that companies must understand to navigate the complexities ahead. The report identifies the top 10 geostrategic developments set to shape global organizations’ strategies, cutting across industries and regions. These developments are divided into three key areas: transitions in political dynamics, evolving economic competition, and intensifying geopolitical rivalries.

1. Populist Policy Influences: The Rise Of Populism And Protectionism

Populism continues to grow across the globe, driving governments toward protectionist measures. Expect tighter immigration policies, more significant trade barriers, and increased pressure on environmental regulations as political leaders aim to cater to populist sentiments.

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2. Taxation conundrums: Taxation Strategies In A Post-Election Era

With new governments taking power, fiscal strategies will evolve to address national debt concerns. This includes potential hikes in corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, and taxes on high-income individuals, pushing businesses to reassess their tax structures.

3. Demographic divides: Ageing Populations And Migration

Demographic shifts, especially the aging population in developed nations and the migration patterns to and from these regions will continue to alter political dynamics on both the national and international stages, creating tension and division in policies.

4. De-risking and dependencies

As countries face growing economic risks, more governments will focus on reducing dependencies on foreign trade and supply chains, fostering a more insular economic environment. This shift will affect the interrelations between states and private enterprises, influencing business strategies.

5. Digital sovereignty

Digital technology’s importance will grow in the coming years, with countries taking a firmer stance on controlling their digital infrastructure. Expect more stringent regulations and policies to safeguard data and protect national interests in the virtual world.

6. Climate and competition

In 2025, climate policies will be increasingly driven by a mix of economic, geopolitical, and price factors, as governments and businesses battle over resources and opportunities in the evolving green economy.

7. New geo-energy dynamics

Energy transition policies will continue to evolve, influencing global geo-energy balances. Uncertainty surrounding these shifts could determine how quickly the world transitions to sustainable energy and which countries and companies will lead the way.

8. Emerging market integration: A Complex Challenge

Emerging markets are under pressure to enhance their influence within global governance structures, while also navigating the rise of alternative multilateral institutions. This complex global environment demands careful management of international relations and economic partnerships.

9. Wars and conflicts

With rising geopolitical tensions, the possibility of new conflicts—both military and cyber—becomes ever more likely. States and non-state actors alike are preparing for this escalation, which could destabilize regional and global security.

10. Astro-politics and the space economy: The Battle For Space

The competition for space resources and technology will intensify in 2025. More nations are set to join the space race, seeking to secure technological advancements and extract valuable resources in this new frontier.

Navigating Political Risk: A CEO’s Imperative

George Papadimitriou, CEO of EY Greece, emphasizes the importance of resilience in today’s turbulent geopolitical climate. “In an interconnected world, businesses cannot afford to ignore the implications of global instability. Those who successfully integrate geostrategic analysis into their strategies will be the ones who thrive.”

Geopolitical risks are now a pivotal element of business transformation. According to joint research from EY and the University of Oxford’s Saïd Business School, 96% of organizational transformations encounter at least one “turning point,” with almost half of these being driven by external shocks such as political instability. This growing unpredictability, especially from geopolitical tensions, underscores the need for CEOs to have full visibility of their exposure to political risks. Yet, according to the EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook, only 30% of CEOs possess such insights, leaving their companies vulnerable in an increasingly uncertain environment.

The 2025 Geostrategic Outlook provides critical insights for executives, helping them navigate complex, interconnected geopolitical dynamics while also addressing broader forces like technology, sustainability, and global macroeconomics. This report aims to equip business leaders with the tools they need to make informed, strategic decisions as they confront the future.

About the Geostrategic Outlook

The Geostrategic Outlook is an annual report by EY-Parthenon, offering a deep dive into the geopolitical risks that will shape the business landscape in the year ahead. The analysis is based on a comprehensive horizon-scanning exercise, combined with insights from global geopolitical risk professionals. This outlook helps businesses understand the potential disruptions ahead and prepares them to implement strategies that can mitigate these risks effectively.

By focusing on high-probability and high-impact geopolitical developments, this report is an essential tool for any executive looking to future-proof their organization amidst ongoing global uncertainty.

The Decline Of Smartwatches: A Turning Point In The Wearable Tech Industry

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 13, 2025

For the first time in history, the smartwatch market is facing a significant downturn. Shipments are expected to drop by 7% in 2024, marking a major shift in a segment that has been growing steadily for over a decade. A report by Counterpoint reveals that while Apple still holds the top spot, its dominance is being challenged by a surge from Chinese brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and BBK. Even as the overall market struggles, some companies are thriving.

The Big Picture: Why Smartwatches Are Slowing Down

Apple’s flagship products have long been the driving force in the smartwatch market, but even the tech giant is feeling the pressure. The company’s shipments are projected to fall by 19% this year, though it will remain the market leader. Meanwhile, brands from China are capitalizing on the shift, with Huawei showing an impressive 35% growth in sales, driven by the booming domestic market and a broad range of offerings, including smartwatches for kids.

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Xiaomi, too, is experiencing remarkable success, with a staggering 135% increase in sales. In contrast, Samsung is seeing more modest growth, up 3%, thanks to its latest Galaxy Watch 7 and Galaxy Watch Ultra series.

While some companies are succeeding, the broader market is facing headwinds. The biggest factor behind the overall decline is the slowdown in India, where consumer demand for smartwatches has stagnated. The segment is suffering from a lack of innovation and fresh updates, leaving many consumers with little incentive to upgrade their devices. Add to that market saturation, and it’s clear why many users are content with their current models. The Chinese market, however, is bucking the trend, showing 6% growth in 2024.

A Glimpse Into The Future

Looking ahead, the smartwatch market may begin to recover in 2025, driven by the increasing integration of AI and advanced health monitoring tools. As these technologies evolve, the industry could see a resurgence in demand.

Huawei’s Remarkable Comeback

Huawei’s impressive performance in the smartwatch space signals a broader recovery for the company, which has been hit hard by US sanctions. Once the world’s largest smartphone maker, Huawei’s business was decimated when it lost access to advanced chips and Google’s Android operating system in 2019. But in China, Huawei has maintained its dominance, with its market share growing to 17% in 2024.

This resurgence was partly driven by the launch of the Mate 60 Pro, a smartphone featuring a 7-nanometer chip developed in China. Despite US sanctions, the device surprised many with its capabilities, a testament to China’s rising investment in domestic semiconductor production.

In February, Huawei also unveiled its Mate XT foldable smartphone, the world’s first device to fold in three directions. Running on HarmonyOS 4.2, Huawei’s proprietary operating system, the phone further demonstrates the company’s resilience and ability to innovate despite international challenges.

Huawei’s smartwatch offerings are also catching attention, particularly the Huawei Watch GT 5 Pro, which launched in September of last year. With a premium titanium alloy design, a high-resolution AMOLED display, and impressive health tracking features, the GT 5 Pro has become a standout in the market, available to both Android and iOS users.

A Brief History Of The Smartwatch Revolution

The smartwatch market has had its fair share of milestones, but the real breakthrough came in 2012 with the Pebble, a Kickstarter-funded project that raised over $10 million. Pebble introduced the world to smartphone integration, app downloads, and long battery life, becoming the first truly mass-market smartwatch.

In 2013, Samsung entered the game with the Galaxy Gear, marking its first attempt at wearable tech. But it was Apple’s entry in 2014 that truly set the industry on fire. The Apple Watch’s sleek design, integration with iOS, and emphasis on health and fitness catapulted it to the top of the market, establishing a standard that many other brands would try to follow.

By 2021, the smartwatch industry had grown to over $30 billion in revenue, with annual growth reaching 20%. Yet now, it finds itself at a crossroads, with innovation stagnating and market saturation taking a toll.