As we step into 2025, the geopolitical landscape is brimming with uncertainty, marked by political, economic, and demographic shifts that will impact businesses worldwide. According to the latest Geostrategic Outlook from EY-Parthenon, 2025 will see pivotal geopolitical developments that companies must understand to navigate the complexities ahead. The report identifies the top 10 geostrategic developments set to shape global organizations’ strategies, cutting across industries and regions. These developments are divided into three key areas: transitions in political dynamics, evolving economic competition, and intensifying geopolitical rivalries.
1. Populist Policy Influences: The Rise Of Populism And Protectionism
Populism continues to grow across the globe, driving governments toward protectionist measures. Expect tighter immigration policies, more significant trade barriers, and increased pressure on environmental regulations as political leaders aim to cater to populist sentiments.
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2. Taxation conundrums: Taxation Strategies In A Post-Election Era
With new governments taking power, fiscal strategies will evolve to address national debt concerns. This includes potential hikes in corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, and taxes on high-income individuals, pushing businesses to reassess their tax structures.
3. Demographic divides: Ageing Populations And Migration
Demographic shifts, especially the aging population in developed nations and the migration patterns to and from these regions will continue to alter political dynamics on both the national and international stages, creating tension and division in policies.
4. De-risking and dependencies
As countries face growing economic risks, more governments will focus on reducing dependencies on foreign trade and supply chains, fostering a more insular economic environment. This shift will affect the interrelations between states and private enterprises, influencing business strategies.
5. Digital sovereignty
Digital technology’s importance will grow in the coming years, with countries taking a firmer stance on controlling their digital infrastructure. Expect more stringent regulations and policies to safeguard data and protect national interests in the virtual world.
6. Climate and competition
In 2025, climate policies will be increasingly driven by a mix of economic, geopolitical, and price factors, as governments and businesses battle over resources and opportunities in the evolving green economy.
7. New geo-energy dynamics
Energy transition policies will continue to evolve, influencing global geo-energy balances. Uncertainty surrounding these shifts could determine how quickly the world transitions to sustainable energy and which countries and companies will lead the way.
8. Emerging market integration: A Complex Challenge
Emerging markets are under pressure to enhance their influence within global governance structures, while also navigating the rise of alternative multilateral institutions. This complex global environment demands careful management of international relations and economic partnerships.
9. Wars and conflicts
With rising geopolitical tensions, the possibility of new conflicts—both military and cyber—becomes ever more likely. States and non-state actors alike are preparing for this escalation, which could destabilize regional and global security.
10. Astro-politics and the space economy: The Battle For Space
The competition for space resources and technology will intensify in 2025. More nations are set to join the space race, seeking to secure technological advancements and extract valuable resources in this new frontier.
Navigating Political Risk: A CEO’s Imperative
George Papadimitriou, CEO of EY Greece, emphasizes the importance of resilience in today’s turbulent geopolitical climate. “In an interconnected world, businesses cannot afford to ignore the implications of global instability. Those who successfully integrate geostrategic analysis into their strategies will be the ones who thrive.”
Geopolitical risks are now a pivotal element of business transformation. According to joint research from EY and the University of Oxford’s Saïd Business School, 96% of organizational transformations encounter at least one “turning point,” with almost half of these being driven by external shocks such as political instability. This growing unpredictability, especially from geopolitical tensions, underscores the need for CEOs to have full visibility of their exposure to political risks. Yet, according to the EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook, only 30% of CEOs possess such insights, leaving their companies vulnerable in an increasingly uncertain environment.
The 2025 Geostrategic Outlook provides critical insights for executives, helping them navigate complex, interconnected geopolitical dynamics while also addressing broader forces like technology, sustainability, and global macroeconomics. This report aims to equip business leaders with the tools they need to make informed, strategic decisions as they confront the future.
About the Geostrategic Outlook
The Geostrategic Outlook is an annual report by EY-Parthenon, offering a deep dive into the geopolitical risks that will shape the business landscape in the year ahead. The analysis is based on a comprehensive horizon-scanning exercise, combined with insights from global geopolitical risk professionals. This outlook helps businesses understand the potential disruptions ahead and prepares them to implement strategies that can mitigate these risks effectively.
By focusing on high-probability and high-impact geopolitical developments, this report is an essential tool for any executive looking to future-proof their organization amidst ongoing global uncertainty.
