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UBS: Optimistic Outlook For Greece And Its Bonds In 2025

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 16, 2025

UBS maintains a bullish perspective on Greek bonds, citing favourable fiscal conditions, manageable refinancing needs, and the potential for further credit upgrades. With the outlook for 2025 looking strong, the Swiss financial institution highlights key factors driving its confidence in Greek government securities and the nation’s economic prospects.

Robust GDP Growth And Recovery Fund Support

UBS projects a 2.8% GDP growth rate for Greece in 2025, surpassing both major Eurozone economies and the region’s average by 70 basis points. This growth is expected to be fuelled by increased disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which will reach 4% of GDP in 2025 compared to 2.3% in 2024. With Greece having secured 60% of its total RRF allocation—equivalent to 16% of its GDP—its recovery is less dependent on broader Eurozone dynamics.

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Primary Budget Surplus And Fiscal Strength

Greece is on track to achieve a primary budget surplus of 2.5% of GDP in 2025. UBS attributes this to:

Greece’s likely attainment of the same surplus level in 2024.
Controlled growth in primary expenditure (3.7%), remaining below nominal GDP growth.
An anticipated €500 million boost from anti-tax evasion reforms, following a €1.8 billion gain in 2024.

Debt Management And Refinancing Efforts

The Greek government continues to focus on refinancing its most expensive debt, including the early repayment of Greek Loan Facility (GLF) obligations. These measures have improved the overall cost of servicing public debt, enabling faster debt reduction and maintaining favourable conditions for bond investors.

Resilient Banking Sector

The Greek banking system has shown significant improvement, with non-performing exposures (NPEs) reduced to 4.6%—the lowest since 2002. Additionally, corporate lending has surged to an annual growth rate of 16% by December 2024, partly due to RRF funding.

Limited Financing Needs And Bond Scarcity

UBS highlights Greece’s reduced gross financing needs for 2025, projected at €8 billion—€1.5 billion lower than 2024. This decline reflects improved fiscal balances (-0.1% of GDP deficit in 2025) and lower debt maturities.

Despite a repricing of European bond yields, Greece’s recent 10-year bond issuance achieved record demand, covering 50% of its borrowing programme for 2025. UBS anticipates another issuance in Q2 2025, with a longer duration of 15–20 years. Additionally, the limited net supply of Greek bonds supports their performance.

The European Central Bank (ECB) holds €38 billion of Greek debt in its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) portfolio, comprising 43% of outstanding Greek bonds. With minimal drawdowns expected, Greek bonds will likely retain their scarcity-driven appeal.

Investment Grade Status And Moody’s Prospects

Greece’s return to investment grade in 2024 significantly bolstered its bond market, enabling inclusion in the Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Treasury Bond Index, where it now holds a 1% share. Moody’s and S&P both upgraded Greece’s outlook to positive in late 2024, and UBS foresees Moody’s raising Greece to investment grade in September 2025, further enhancing investor confidence.

UBS’s positive stance on Greek bonds reflects Greece’s robust economic performance, effective fiscal management, and improved credit profile. With strategic debt refinancing, reduced financing needs, and a resilient banking sector, Greece is poised to maintain its upward trajectory in 2025. The nation’s ability to leverage RRF funding and achieve further credit upgrades will be instrumental in shaping its financial future and securing its position as an attractive investment destination.

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Loneliness And Social Isolation Can Shorten Healthy Life Expectancy By Six Years, Study Finds

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

September 24, 2026

Social isolation and loneliness are often used interchangeably, but they describe different realities. Social isolation is measured by limited contact and participation with others. Loneliness is a subjective feeling of disconnection from the world around you. A new study published in Nature Communications suggests that both can carry a significant health cost.

Researchers analysing data from more than 270,000 adults aged 40 to 69 found that loneliness and social isolation were each associated with fewer healthy years of life. On average, the impact amounted to roughly six disease-free years lost, underscoring the extent to which social wellbeing and physical health are intertwined.

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“Overall, the study found that social isolation and loneliness can have a significant impact on disease-free life expectancy,” said lead author Lu Qi, professor at Tulane University.

Loneliness Hits Mental Health Harder

The effects were more pronounced for mental health than for physical disease. The study found stronger associations with the loss of years free of depression and anxiety than with years free of conditions such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, neurodegenerative disease and cancer.

That distinction matters. A person may be physically surrounded by others and still feel profoundly alone, while another may have a small social circle without experiencing loneliness. The study suggests that both states can influence long-term health, but in different ways.

A Healthy Lifestyle Helps, But Only Partly

The researchers found a more active, healthier lifestyle could reduce some of the harm linked to social isolation. In other words, good habits may help offset the effects of limited social contact. But the same was not true for loneliness. The study indicates that healthy routines do not fully compensate for the damage associated with feeling disconnected.

At age 50, people experiencing both loneliness and social isolation were expected to spend fewer years free of major chronic disease than those experiencing neither. The finding reinforces a growing body of evidence that social health is not a soft variable; it is a meaningful predictor of later-life wellbeing.

Men And Women Do Not Experience It The Same Way

The health effects also differed by sex. Among women, loneliness and social isolation were linked to 2.4 fewer years spent in good physical health and 3.7 fewer years free from mental disorders. Among men, the figures were 1.7 years of physical disease-free life lost and 5.8 years of mental disorder-free life lost.

Men were also more likely to experience both loneliness and social isolation, along with lower levels of social, material and economic resources, and a weaker healthy-lifestyle score.

The authors suggested that the gap may reflect differences in how men and women seek support and build psychological resilience. Men may rely more heavily on physical presence and frequent interaction, while women may depend more on emotional support. That distinction could help explain why the burden of loneliness appears to fall differently across genders.

For employers, healthcare systems and policymakers, the message is clear: social connection is not merely a personal comfort. It is a public health issue with measurable consequences for disease-free life expectancy.