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Real Activity Growth In Cyprus Projected To Gather Momentum

Cyprus is poised for a significant economic upswing, with projections indicating a robust acceleration in real activity growth. This optimistic forecast is detailed in a recent report by the Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC), which underscores the nation’s economic resilience and potential for future expansion.

According to the CBC, real activity growth in Cyprus is expected to gain substantial momentum, driven by a confluence of favourable factors. These include a strong performance in key sectors such as tourism, construction, and professional services, coupled with strategic governmental policies aimed at fostering economic stability and growth.

The tourism sector, a cornerstone of the Cypriot economy, has demonstrated remarkable resilience and recovery post-pandemic. The influx of tourists, particularly from Europe and the Middle East, has bolstered the sector, leading to increased revenue and job creation. This resurgence is expected to continue, supported by ongoing investments in infrastructure and marketing initiatives aimed at enhancing Cyprus’s appeal as a premier tourist destination.

In the construction sector, significant projects, both private and public, are set to drive growth. The development of residential and commercial properties, alongside infrastructure projects such as road networks and utility upgrades, is anticipated to stimulate economic activity. Additionally, the government’s focus on sustainable development and green building practices is likely to attract further investment and innovation in this sector.

Professional services, including finance, legal, and consulting, remain a critical component of Cyprus’s economic landscape. The island’s favourable business environment, strategic location, and robust regulatory framework have positioned it as a hub for international business. The continued growth of this sector is expected to contribute significantly to the overall economic momentum.

The CBC report also highlights the positive impact of governmental policies on economic growth. Measures such as fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and investment in digital transformation have enhanced economic resilience and competitiveness. These policies have not only stabilized the economy but also created a conducive environment for sustainable growth.

Governor Constantinos Herodotou of the Central Bank of Cyprus expressed confidence in the country’s economic prospects, stating, “The projected growth in real activity is a testament to the resilience and dynamism of the Cypriot economy. Our strategic policies and the robust performance of key sectors are driving this positive outlook. We remain committed to fostering an environment that supports sustainable economic growth and development.”However, the report also cautions against potential risks that could temper this optimistic outlook. External factors such as geopolitical tensions, global economic slowdowns, and fluctuating energy prices could pose challenges. Domestically, issues such as labour market mismatches and the need for continued structural reforms must be addressed to ensure sustained growth.

Competition Authority Launches Comprehensive Review of ExxonMobil Cyprus Acquisition

Investigation Initiated Over Strategic Acquisition

The Competition Protection Authority has commenced a thorough investigation into the acquisition of ExxonMobil Cyprus Limited’s share capital by Petrolina Holdings Public Ltd through Med Energywise Ltd. This inquiry was formally initiated following a session held on 10 September 2025, after an in-depth review of the pertinent report by the Authority’s Service.

Concerns Over Market Compatibility

Authorities have expressed serious concerns regarding the compatibility of the transaction with established competitive practices. The review indicates that the acquisition may affect several critical petroleum markets, both horizontally and vertically, thereby raising the potential for adverse impacts on market dynamics.

Horizontal Market Dynamics

On the horizontal front, potential effects have been identified in the import market for petroleum products, as well as in both wholesale and retail distribution channels of these products. The consolidation is believed to increase the risk of price rises and coordinated actions, given the direct competitive proximity between Petrolina and ExxonMobil.

Vertical and Adjacent Market Implications

Vertical aspects of the merger are also under close scrutiny. The new entity could restrict competitors’ access to critical infrastructure such as storage facilities, supply channels, and customer bases. These restrictions could further affect the onshore distribution of fuels, the wholesale market for lubricants, and specialized technical services connected with fuel station operations.

Local Market Considerations

Particular attention is being paid to the potential concentration in the retail fuel market. The investigation suggests that a reduced competitive landscape within a four-kilometer radius of the companies’ fuel stations could lead to diminished local competition, adversely impacting consumer prices and options.

Next Steps and Industry Impact

The Competition Protection Authority, which reached a unanimous decision to pursue a full investigation, remains open to submissions from parties that might be affected by this transaction, as mandated by current legislation. A final decision is expected within four months upon receipt of all necessary evidence, potentially setting a significant precedent for future market consolidation cases in the energy sector.

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