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Rising Costs And Christmas Price Surge: Global Trade Faces New Challenges

As Christmas approaches, consumers and businesses in Cyprus are bracing for a sharp rise in prices due to increasing transportation costs and ongoing global trade disruptions. A series of drone attacks on cargo ships by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea has led to elevated risks and longer shipping routes around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, significantly driving up freight costs. The World Container Index shows a doubling of shipping costs since May, and this trend is expected to pass through to consumer prices by the holiday season, leading to more expensive goods.

Global Shipping Crisis

The Suez Canal, a crucial route for global trade, has been severely affected by geopolitical tensions. The persistent attacks have forced shipping companies to reroute vessels, increasing transit times and operational costs. The World Container Index, a key indicator of shipping costs, has soared to $5,901, levels unseen since late 2022. This surge, while not as extreme as during the pandemic, is alarming for both businesses and consumers as it pressures the entire supply chain.

Economic Impact and Inflation

Experts warn that the increased freight costs will inevitably lead to higher prices for consumer goods. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that global inflation could rise by 5% annually if the conflict continues, while JP Morgan projects a 0.7% inflation increase in the first half of the year. Such inflationary pressures could complicate monetary policy decisions, potentially delaying any interest rate cuts.

Local Market Response

In Cyprus, the implications of these global trade disruptions are being keenly felt. Retailers are preparing for a challenging holiday season, with higher import costs likely to translate into more expensive Christmas shopping. Jordi Espín from the European Shippers’ Council predicts that these cost increases will start impacting consumer prices post-summer, making this Christmas season particularly costly.

Corporate and Stock Market Reactions

Despite these challenges, the shipping industry has seen some financial gains. Major shipping companies like China’s COSCO, Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, and Taiwan’s Evergreen have experienced significant stock price increases, benefiting from the higher freight rates. However, these gains contrast sharply with the broader economic strain felt by consumers and smaller businesses.

Competition Authority Launches Comprehensive Review of ExxonMobil Cyprus Acquisition

Investigation Initiated Over Strategic Acquisition

The Competition Protection Authority has commenced a thorough investigation into the acquisition of ExxonMobil Cyprus Limited’s share capital by Petrolina Holdings Public Ltd through Med Energywise Ltd. This inquiry was formally initiated following a session held on 10 September 2025, after an in-depth review of the pertinent report by the Authority’s Service.

Concerns Over Market Compatibility

Authorities have expressed serious concerns regarding the compatibility of the transaction with established competitive practices. The review indicates that the acquisition may affect several critical petroleum markets, both horizontally and vertically, thereby raising the potential for adverse impacts on market dynamics.

Horizontal Market Dynamics

On the horizontal front, potential effects have been identified in the import market for petroleum products, as well as in both wholesale and retail distribution channels of these products. The consolidation is believed to increase the risk of price rises and coordinated actions, given the direct competitive proximity between Petrolina and ExxonMobil.

Vertical and Adjacent Market Implications

Vertical aspects of the merger are also under close scrutiny. The new entity could restrict competitors’ access to critical infrastructure such as storage facilities, supply channels, and customer bases. These restrictions could further affect the onshore distribution of fuels, the wholesale market for lubricants, and specialized technical services connected with fuel station operations.

Local Market Considerations

Particular attention is being paid to the potential concentration in the retail fuel market. The investigation suggests that a reduced competitive landscape within a four-kilometer radius of the companies’ fuel stations could lead to diminished local competition, adversely impacting consumer prices and options.

Next Steps and Industry Impact

The Competition Protection Authority, which reached a unanimous decision to pursue a full investigation, remains open to submissions from parties that might be affected by this transaction, as mandated by current legislation. A final decision is expected within four months upon receipt of all necessary evidence, potentially setting a significant precedent for future market consolidation cases in the energy sector.

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