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S&P’s Credit Rating Upgrade Highlights Strengthened Position Of Bank Of Cyprus

In a significant development for Cyprus’ financial sector, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has upgraded the long-term credit rating of the Bank of Cyprus to BB+, just one notch below investment grade, with a positive outlook. This upgrade reflects the bank’s enhanced capital position and robust profit-generation capacity, coupled with a reduction in economic risks within Cyprus.

Strengthened Capitalisation and Profitability

S&P’s upgrade follows a similar improvement in Cyprus’ sovereign credit rating, signifying broader economic stability. The agency cited the bank’s strengthened capitalisation and its ability to maintain solid profitability, even in a challenging economic environment. Despite the anticipated decline in favourable conditions due to high interest rates, S&P expects the Bank of Cyprus to sustain a resilient net interest margin of 350-400 basis points in 2024 and 2025.

Cost Control and Sustainable Profitability

S&P also highlighted the importance of strict cost control measures in maintaining sustainable profitability. The bank’s cost-to-income ratio is projected to move towards 44-46% by the end of 2026, a significant improvement from the high of 66% observed between 2018 and 2022. This reflects the bank’s strategic focus on efficiency and cost management.

Risk Normalisation and Asset Quality

The agency noted an ongoing normalisation of risk costs, including provisions for recovered real estate assets, which are expected to drop below 80 basis points. This decline is set to further fortify profitability as interest rates stabilise. S&P anticipates the bank will maintain a return on tangible equity above 16% for 2024, and around 12-13% from 2025 to 2026.

Broad Sectoral Recovery

The upgrade also reflects a broader recovery within the Cypriot banking sector. Following years of significant non-performing loan (NPL) sales, securitisations, write-offs, and recoveries, the sector has largely absorbed the impact of the 2012 financial crisis. Although the NPL ratio remains higher compared to other European banks, it continues to decline, reaching 7.3% at the end of March 2024, with a coverage ratio of 53.3%.

Future Prospects

Looking ahead, S&P expects Cypriot banks to gradually expand their operations as legacy issues from problematic loans diminish. The sector is projected to see an average lending growth of 2.5% from 2024 to 2027, marking a shift from the deleveraging trend observed in recent years.

Cyprus Renewable Energy Sector Under Scrutiny: President Demands Swift Transformation

Cyprus is under increasing pressure to expedite progress in developing its renewable energy sector, a sentiment expressed forcefully by President Nikos Christodoulides at the 13th Energy Symposium in Nicosia. In his address, the president outlined an ambitious energy strategy concentrating on renewable sources, gas exploration, and enhanced regional interconnectivity, while openly criticizing the sluggish pace of renewable initiatives—a fault he deemed entirely within Cyprus’ control.

Renewable Energy And Gas Exploration

Emphasizing the conference theme, ‘Time For Action In Energy,’ President Christodoulides stressed that global expectations have shifted from rhetoric to the execution of tangible projects. Notably, he recalled that although Cyprus made its first gas discovery in 2011, the exploitation of these deposits within its Exclusive Economic Zone has yet to commence, even as 2025 advances.

Renewables In The Spotlight

While the president discussed the potential of gas extraction and regional electricity interconnections, his most scathing remarks focused on the renewable energy shortfall. Despite Cyprus enjoying an average of 350 sunny days per year, the current integration of renewable sources into its energy mix stands at a modest 23 percent. In stark contrast to northern European nations, which have achieved higher renewable penetration even with less sunlight, this disparity is a source of national disappointment.

Government Initiatives And Reform

Highlighting progress under his administration, Christodoulides cited significant developments in photovoltaic adoption—8,500 applications submitted and upgrades completed for 4,000 homes to date. He also underlined future green tax incentives and a crucial overhaul of the transmission system to bolster energy storage and grid stability. The president argued that modern energy storage is essential not only for maximizing renewable output but also for reducing costs and supporting a more resilient grid.

Market Liberalization And Consumer Benefits

In a concurrent reform, Cyprus recently launched its competitive electricity market on October 2. This move is expected to allow consumers to select suppliers in a more transparent, flexible, and cost-effective manner. By integrating conventional generation with renewable production, the reform is poised to offer significant benefits to households and businesses alike.

Strategic Regional Interconnections

Addressing the highly debated issue of regional interconnection, the president confirmed ongoing discussions with neighboring states regarding electrical grid integration. He endorsed the €1.9 billion Great Sea Interconnector project (GSI), connecting the electricity grids of Cyprus, Greece, and Israel. Upgrades to both the economic and technical parameters of the project were recently agreed upon in Athens.

Forming Strategic Alliances

President Christodoulides also highlighted the newly established 3+1 energy cooperation framework between Cyprus, Israel, Greece, and the United States as a strategic initiative. This alliance is aimed at fortifying energy security by diversifying the region’s energy sources and diminishing dependence on less reliable actors. Meetings, including one in Athens and upcoming sessions in Washington, DC, are set to further align the interests of Eastern Mediterranean nations with those of global energy powerhouses.

Overcoming Challenges And Future Outlook

Despite occasional controversies surrounding the GSI project—such as financial commitment concerns by Greek officials and alleged conflicts of interest as noted in previous reports—ongoing dialogue among key ministers, including Energy Ministers George Papanastasiou and Stavros Papastavrou along with European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen, has helped defuse tensions. Looking ahead, the interconnector is seen as a cornerstone of the broader India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) initiative, reinforcing Cyprus’ strategic importance in the regional energy landscape.

Looking Beyond

In a final note at the symposium, President Christodoulides announced plans for an upcoming trip to Lebanon on November 26 to engage in further strategic energy discussions. This international outreach underscores Cyprus’ commitment to not only resolving its current challenges but also positioning itself as a dynamic alternative energy corridor to Europe.

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