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OPEC Sticks To 2024 Oil Demand Growth Forecast But Trims Q1 View

On Tuesday, OPEC stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024, despite lower-than-expected use in the first quarter, saying travel and tourism would support consumption in the year’s second half.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.

OPEC’s report is the latest to flag robust oil market conditions heading into the second half of the year. Oil rose 3 per cent on Monday after Goldman Sachs said transport demand would push the market into a third-quarter deficit.

OPEC said steady global economic growth has continued in the first half of 2024 and forecast that world oil demand would rise by 2.3 million bpd in the second half.

“Globally, the services sector maintains a stable momentum,” OPEC said.

“It is projected to be the main contributor to the economic growth dynamic in the second half of 2024, particularly supported by travel and tourism, with a consequent positive impact on oil demand.”

OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allies such as Russia, has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. The group agreed on June 2 to extend the latest cut of 2.2 million bpd until the end of September and gradually phase it out from October.

Oil was steady after the OPEC report was released with Brent crude edging down towards $81 a barrel.

The International Energy Agency, which represents industrialised countries, expects much lower demand growth than OPEC of 1.1 million bpd and is scheduled to provide an update on its view on Wednesday.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday that solid summer transport demand will push the oil market into a third-quarter deficit of 1.3 million bpd. Figures in OPEC’s report imply an even larger gap between supply and demand.

OPEC projects demand for OPEC+ crude, or crude from OPEC plus the allied countries working with it, at 43.6 million bpd in the third quarter, much more than the group is currently pumping, according to the report.

The OPEC+ group pumped 40.92 million bpd in May, the report said, citing figures from secondary sources. That marked a drop of 123,000 bpd from April with declines in Russia and Kazakhstan offsetting increases in Nigeria and smaller African producers.

Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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