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UBS Sees Further Upside For Eurobank And Alpha Bank After Strong Q3 Results

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Eurobank and Alpha Bank could have further room to grow after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, according to UBS. The bank maintained its buy ratings on both lenders, citing stronger core banking income, loan growth and the increasing contribution of international operations, including in Cyprus.

UBS kept its price targets at €5.40 for Eurobank and €5.20 for Alpha Bank, implying potential upside of approximately 21% and 18%, respectively, excluding dividends. The analysts see different drivers behind each bank’s growth prospects.

Eurobank Benefits From Earnings Growth And Regional Expansion

Eurobank’s third-quarter adjusted net profit exceeded market consensus by 5% and UBS’ forecast by 4%. Return on tangible equity reached 17.8%, while its common equity tier one capital ratio stood at 15.5%.

Its Cyprus operations generated €367 million in profit before tax and €733 million in external revenue during the first nine months of 2026, according to reported results. Revenue included €579 million in net interest income, €98 million in net banking fee and commission income, and €56 million in other net revenue.

Across the group, net interest income rose 5% quarter on quarter and 13.7% year on year. UBS expects it to approach €2.8 billion in 2026, above Eurobank’s upgraded guidance of €2.7 billion. The group’s net interest margin stood at 2.53%, while deposits grew 10.4%, including 12% growth in Greece.

Southeastern Europe also supported performance. Net loans in the region increased 11.8% year on year, with Bulgaria recording 14% growth. Core pre-provision profits rose 24% in Bulgaria and 18% in Cyprus.

UBS raised its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share estimate by around 1%, forecasting growth of 17% this year and 15.1% in 2027. It expects average annual earnings-per-share growth of 13.6% between 2025 and 2028, above management’s target of more than 10%.

Eurobank continues to integrate its Cypriot banking and insurance operations following the acquisition of the former CNP Cyprus subgroup in April 2025. Completion of the Eurolife acquisition is expected to add around €100 million in annual commission income, starting in the fourth quarter.

According to UBS, Eurobank shares trade at 8.3 times estimated 2028 earnings, with a projected dividend yield of 6.3% for 2027.

Alpha Bank Awaits Its Strategic Update

Alpha Bank’s international operations, including Cyprus, generated €79 million in normalised net profit in the first nine months of 2026, up 13% year on year. Net interest income increased 64%, while fee-services income rose 65%. The division’s net loans reached €2.9 billion and customer deposits totalled €6.6 billion, with a return on tangible book value of 12.9%.

In Cyprus, the bank recorded €17.5 million in provisions for a voluntary staff exit scheme and €0.7 million in integration costs.

At group level, Alpha Bank reported third-quarter profit after tax of €268.9 million, bringing its nine-month total to €766.1 million. Results exceeded expectations, with net interest income 6% above consensus, pre-tax profit 7% higher and normalised net profit 17% above estimates.

Net interest income rose 8.2% quarter on quarter and 17.4% year on year. The net interest margin widened by 14 basis points to 2.30%, ahead of UBS’ 2.20% forecast. Management expects annual net interest income of around €1.8 billion and maintained guidance for total revenue close to €2.5 billion.

UBS increased its adjusted earnings-per-share estimates for 2026 and the medium term by approximately 1%. Its forecasts imply average annual earnings-per-share growth of around 15% between 2025 and 2028.

The next key milestone is Alpha Bank’s investor presentation on November 5, when management is expected to outline an updated business plan and medium-term targets. UBS is looking for details on acquisitions, corporate and investment banking, and fee-income growth.

Alpha Bank trades at 1.2 times its 2026 price-to-tangible-book value and eight times estimated 2028 earnings. UBS sees scope for a higher valuation as efficiency improves. The bank’s latest results provide further detail ahead of the strategic update.

UBS Maintains Buy Rating On Piraeus Bank

UBS also reaffirmed its buy recommendation on Piraeus Bank, setting a €12.50 price target that implies approximately 28% upside, excluding dividends. It said underlying performance remained strong despite exceptional charges, which are expected to ease from 2027.

Binance Details Months-Long Cyberattack Behind $6.34 Billion Crypto Theft

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Binance has disclosed how attackers used fake software downloads, fraudulent job interviews and compromised internal tools to breach its wallet infrastructure in an October 29 cyberattack that resulted in the theft of more than $6 billion in digital assets.

The incident was not caused by a single employee mistake, Binance co-CEO Richard Teng told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street”. Instead, attackers spent months building access before reaching the system responsible for authorising wallet transactions.

“They spent months building their way in,” Teng said, describing a sequence involving a compromised developer tool, malware hidden in a coding exercise and access to internal AI systems.

How Attackers Reached Binance’s Wallet Infrastructure

According to Binance’s security report, the operation began in June when a Wallet DevOps engineer downloaded a modified Homebrew installation while searching online for a popular AI coding tool.

Binance detected suspicious activity, replaced the engineer’s device and rotated credentials. However, the company said the engineer’s role and the work of colleagues on the wallet infrastructure team had already been exposed.

In September, attackers allegedly posed as recruiters and interviewed another engineer. A coding exercise contained hidden malware designed to evade security controls, Teng said. The attackers subsequently moved through internal AI tools and gained access to the system authorising wallet transactions.

Teng did not directly attribute the attack to North Korea, but said the FBI had linked it to North Korean hackers associated with the TraderTraitor group.

Binance Recovers Most Affected Assets

Binance said it has replenished 98% of the $6.34 billion in affected assets and is working to acquire the remaining, less-liquid holdings. The exchange temporarily restricted certain withdrawals, committed to covering customer losses and used its reserves to restore affected funds.

The company and industry partners, including Tether, Circle and Ripple, have reportedly frozen around $3 billion in assets. However, some stolen funds continue to move through laundering channels.

Coinbase has also blocked transfers to compromised wallets and offered assistance to Binance.

Security Overhaul And Industry Confidence

Following the breach, Binance rebuilt the affected wallet system and internal AI tool, replaced compromised devices, revoked credentials and tokens associated with the engineers involved, and expanded security scans across employee devices.

The exchange has also commissioned an independent expert to review its response and security measures. Teng said Binance would continue strengthening its defences while working with law enforcement and industry partners to trace and freeze the stolen funds.

The incident has renewed questions about the security of centralised crypto exchanges. Although Binance maintains that it remains financially sound, attention is now focused on recovering the remaining assets and demonstrating that its security controls can withstand increasingly sophisticated attacks.

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